FanPost

Padres vs Dodgers, August 30th Simulation + Contest

Rules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it.  You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score.  If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score.  Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so.  For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess.  I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll.  As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet.  A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.

Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).

Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)

Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 11:40 PM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Tim Stauffer Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 58.76% 6.6 59.77% 7.26

 

1 LAN 3-2 4:1   51 SD 5-0 42:1   101 LAN 9-7 208:1
2 LAN 2-1 5:1   52 SD 7-5 42:1   102 LAN 11-4 211:1
3 LAN 4-3 6:1   53 LAN 7-0 43:1   103 SD 10-5 211:1
4 SD 3-2 8:1   54 LAN 8-1 45:1   104 LAN 10-5 219:1
5 LAN 3-1 8:1   55 LAN 8-3 47:1   105 LAN 11-0 227:1
6 LAN 4-2 9:1   56 SD 7-1 48:1   106 SD 11-2 233:1
7 LAN 5-4 9:1   57 SD 7-6 48:1   107 LAN 10-6 277:1
8 SD 2-1 9:1   58 LAN 8-4 53:1   108 SD 9-8 280:1
9 SD 4-3 9:1   59 SD 8-2 56:1   109 LAN 12-3 290:1
10 LAN 4-1 9:1   60 SD 8-3 60:1   110 LAN 12-1 293:1
11 LAN 1-0 11:1   61 LAN 8-5 61:1   111 LAN 11-5 300:1
12 LAN 5-2 11:1   62 LAN 8-7 61:1   112 LAN 10-9 300:1
13 SD 4-2 12:1   63 LAN 8-0 62:1   113 SD 10-6 308:1
14 SD 3-1 12:1   64 SD 6-0 64:1   114 SD 10-0 316:1
15 LAN 5-3 13:1   65 SD 8-4 65:1   115 LAN 12-2 320:1
16 LAN 3-0 13:1   66 LAN 9-3 67:1   116 SD 11-4 324:1
17 LAN 2-0 13:1   67 LAN 9-2 68:1   117 SD 10-7 333:1
18 LAN 5-1 14:1   68 LAN 9-1 72:1   118 LAN 10-7 346:1
19 SD 5-4 14:1   69 SD 8-1 72:1   119 LAN 12-4 346:1
20 LAN 6-5 15:1   70 SD 8-5 79:1   120 SD 11-3 351:1
21 SD 4-1 15:1   71 SD 8-6 83:1   121 LAN 12-0 356:1
22 SD 5-3 16:1   72 SD 7-0 86:1   122 SD 11-1 367:1
23 LAN 4-0 16:1   73 SD 9-3 87:1   123 LAN 10-8 396:1
24 SD 1-0 16:1   74 LAN 8-6 88:1   124 LAN 11-6 416:1
25 SD 5-2 17:1   75 LAN 9-0 89:1   125 SD 11-5 416:1
26 LAN 6-3 17:1   76 LAN 9-4 93:1   126 SD 12-3 416:1
27 SD 2-0 18:1   77 SD 8-7 96:1   127 LAN 13-2 430:1
28 LAN 6-2 19:1   78 SD 9-4 102:1   128 SD 11-6 462:1
29 LAN 6-1 19:1   79 SD 9-2 103:1   129 SD 10-8 462:1
30 LAN 5-0 21:1   80 LAN 10-3 103:1   130 LAN 12-5 471:1
31 LAN 6-4 22:1   81 LAN 10-2 104:1   131 SD 12-2 480:1
32 SD 3-0 22:1   82 LAN 10-1 111:1   132 SD 12-1 480:1
33 SD 6-3 24:1   83 SD 9-5 116:1   133 LAN 13-3 520:1
34 SD 5-1 24:1   84 SD 9-1 127:1   134 SD 12-4 531:1
35 SD 6-4 24:1   85 SD 8-0 132:1   135 LAN 11-7 555:1
36 SD 6-5 26:1   86 LAN 9-5 136:1   136 SD 11-0 567:1
37 LAN 7-1 27:1   87 SD 9-6 139:1   137 SD 11-7 567:1
38 SD 6-2 27:1   88 LAN 9-8 140:1   138 LAN 13-1 567:1
39 LAN 7-2 27:1   89 LAN 9-6 146:1   139 SD 11-8 609:1
40 LAN 7-6 29:1   90 SD 10-3 149:1   140 LAN 13-0 694:1
41 LAN 6-0 29:1   91 LAN 10-4 157:1   141 SD 12-6 735:1
42 LAN 7-3 30:1   92 SD 10-2 165:1   142 SD 13-2 735:1
43 SD 4-0 31:1   93 LAN 10-0 167:1   143 SD 10-9 757:1
44 LAN 7-4 34:1   94 LAN 11-2 169:1   144 LAN 14-2 757:1
45 SD 6-1 34:1   95 LAN 11-1 175:1   145 SD 12-5 781:1
46 SD 7-4 38:1   96 SD 9-0 180:1   146 LAN 11-8 781:1
47 SD 7-3 38:1   97 LAN 11-3 183:1   147 LAN 13-4 781:1
48 SD 7-2 38:1   98 SD 9-7 196:1   148 SD 13-3 781:1
49 LAN 7-5 39:1   99 SD 10-4 203:1   149 LAN 14-1 833:1
50 LAN 8-2 41:1   100 SD 10-1 204:1   150 LAN 13-5 833:1

 

 

Actual Contest Questions

A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 6.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Hiroki Kuroda Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Tim Stauffer Pitch Count: 96.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Matt Kemp Total Bases plus Stolen Bases : 2.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Dodgers runs scored: 3.5 (1:1)

F. (Prop bet) Kuroda allows a HR: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Dodgers win by more than 2 runs : (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Who scores the Dodgers first run of the game: (5:1)


Sample Bet
#20 LAN 4-2
10AO
5CU
15DU
10H Matt Kemp

Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid.  250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title.  Players in questions B,C,D,F must all start for that question to be valid.  On question H you must guess a name or you may say "Cleanup hitter" or "Starting CFer" etc... If you guess a player in H who didn't start then "tough shit".  Odds in the score table are the "true odds" divided by four.


August Leaderboard Via Google Docs

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