Sellers and Loney A Match Made for the Ravine
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 30, 2011 8:38 AM PDT
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PrintAs every Dodger fan knows for most of this year James Loney has been the worst hitter in baseball. He had a miserable start to the year but perked up in June and by June 24th had moved his miserly OPS upto .680 which was the high point. It then fell from the very low height of .680 all the way to .612 on Aug 6th. Think of that, a 1st baseman with an OPS of .612 after 2/3 of the season was in the books. Don Mattingly had finally had enough and started giving his at bats to Juan Rivera. Most anyone would have told you that James Loney's Dodger career was over.
Yet, here we sit on August 29th wondering who this man is who is all of sudden the hottest hitter in baseball. How did this happen? Many have pondered why James Loney has suddenly rediscovered the magic of 2007.
Was it a change in batting stance?
Did the light go on?
Change in diet?
Did his agent stop returning his calls when he asked him about his chances of being tendered a major league contract this winter?
Many will point to the fact he's been hot since he warmed up in the bullpen. Eric Stephen tweeted this:
Since James Loney warmed up in the bullpen, he is hitting .514/.541/1.000 with five doubles and four home runs in eight games
Did his agent stop returning his calls when he asked him about his chances of being tendered a major league contract this winter?
It could have been any number of things but only one thing we know for certain. Illustration man Justin Sellers joined the team on Aug 12th, and since Aug 12th James Loney has become everything anyone has ever dreamed.
58 Plate Appearances
51 At Bats
23 Hits
5 Doubles
4 Home Runs
7 Walks
A triple stat line of .451 / .517 / .784 good for an OPS of 1.301
Anyone can get hot, but you have to have some skill to put up an OPS of 1.301 even if the sample size is 58 plate appearances. James is not Andre Ethier where he goes hot and cold. When it comes to home cooking James has been leftover cold for almost four years. Heck a generation has come and gone who never saw a James Loney home run at the Ravine. If want to see one now, better head out to Dodger Stadium because this could end as quickly as it began.
I'm afraid it will all end when Dee Gordon comes back to reclaim SS on Thursday, but for 19 days, James Loney reminded us why we liked him four years ago.
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I don't always quote Jethro Tull, but when I do . . .
Nothing is easy, you’ll find
that the squeeze won’t turn out so bad.
Your fingers may freeze, worse things happen at sea,
there’s good times to be had.
So if you’re alone and you’re down to the bone,
just give us a play.
You’ll smile in a while and discover
that I’ll get you happy my way —
nothing’s easy.
by kinbote on Aug 30, 2011 8:43 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
My God.
That made my day, thanks. :D
by TopDeckTrueBlue on Aug 30, 2011 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Nice
“My God” being a Tull song also.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Aug 30, 2011 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
The last time he went on a tear, it’s because he got way closer to the plate.
He said it himself, his timing is back to how it was when he came up. He’s quoted all over the place as saying it’s a rhythm thing. From last night’s recap:
"As I get ready to hit, my timing has been good," Loney said. "Just reacting."
That isn’t to say his swing wasn’t close before.
"It was definitely close. Then there were times when I thought I was on time, and maybe I wasn’t as perfect as I should have been. But now I just feel a nice smooth transition."
Just found all the fuss last night funny. Everyone with a different thing he’s changed when the man himself is saying exactly what’s different. That’s not to say he won’t lose that timing starting tomorrow, but we’ll see.
@RB_GScott
Mostly, when a guy is weakly tapping the ball, but his swing still looks good, it’s blatantly a timing issue. When you start to give up on a hitter is when either their approach looks apathetic, or you see them absolutely get all of a ball and it turns into a fly out. Other things like hitting too many ground balls contribute too, but his weak dribblers were never because that’s all he could do, he was just a little late or early on all those swings, and that’s enough to go from best hitter in MLB to worst. Guys like Pujols are just able to keep that timing more often than not.
@RB_GScott
The timing issue has never quite reconciled with the huge home / road splits of Mr. Loney throughout his Dodger career. You don’t lose your timing by boarding a plane to go home and get it back when you get on a plane to leave.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
he has been shit on the road the last couple years too
although for his career I still think there is a 100+ ops difference
Well whatever it is he’s doing, I hope he sustains it and keeps it going. Loney has not hit like this in four years, and I don’t think that’s a coincidence. I think he’s finally figured something out.
Time will tell I guess.
Nothing is ever easy.
by drulenarendes on Aug 30, 2011 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
If Jose Castillo can hit like this for a month anyone capable of playing in the bigs, even James Loney can.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Blake DeWitt who we can agree isn’t capable of superstar performance over a similar 50 PA span OPSed 1.230. Anyone can do this, please stop trying to attach a narrative to a hot streak.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions
quit raining on a miserable seasons parade. You will have five weeks to tell us you told you us so, can’t you wait that long?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Sorry, I’m in a miserable goddamn mood and any hint that “yep, James Loney is probably coming back next year” makes it worse.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
You're right
Because we are clearly going out to get Pujols or Fielder to replace him…
The sad truth is there are not a lot of better options for what the Dodgers will be able to afford.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Lee, Pena, Kotchman, hell Branyan
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Even Eric Hinske is outhitting Loney
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Give Hinske 600 at bats and you know that would not be the case
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Then throw him in a platoon with Russel Branyan.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
I would not be averse to a platoon of HInske / Sands / Van Slyke in 2012.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
playing for that 2013 #1 overall draft pick?
@RB_GScott
by G.Scott on Aug 30, 2011 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Can't wait for the next Matt Bush!
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
this is like arguing which subway sandwich is the best. they all suck.
by delias man on Aug 30, 2011 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
The only first basemen to hold on to a job while hitting like Loney in the last 50 years are Travis Lee and J.T. Snow. J.T. Snow at least had a glove.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
and it’s not close. JT Snow is one of the best ever, and Jim Loney is an overrated pile of crap at first base.
@RB_GScott
defensive metrics drive me nuts
the last two years he is positive in dWar on b-ref and fielding on fangraphs, but this year is having his best year according to fangraphs, but according to dWar on B-ref he is having his worst year.
If he does come back next year than that would probably mean these next five weeks were also solid, at which point that would mean he had a hellacious 1/3 of a season.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Which will bring him right back to the standard James Loney season.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
what about the two handed finish? Seems new, yes?
I think one of the ways timing gets out of whack is inconsistent mechanics
I don’t have the time, but I would like to see hip finish with one handed swing and hip finish with two handed swings and compare / contrast
by Hollywood Joe on Aug 30, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
hips only matter at point of contact, so unless that changed, the finish is just preference. The follow through is just personal habit and comfort more than anything, but we teach to finish with two hands so you don’t inadvertently let go or loosen your grip at or before contact.
@RB_GScott
they only matter at point of contact, yes!
but if they never get through, then it is beyond a timing issue, it is because they get blocked or never activated – yes?
by Hollywood Joe on Aug 30, 2011 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
full disclosure – I am obsessed with leg action in all sports
want to be a radical surfer – it is in the feet and hips
want to drive the golf ball – start swing in your toes, violent control through the hips
want to knock someone out – drive footdown, hips, through, shoulder and arm follow
want to crush the baseball – hips! stable base! fast hands! hands through! bat follows!
tennis – I don’t play that game
by Hollywood Joe on Aug 30, 2011 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Live the dream Phil
dance class is calling
by Hollywood Joe on Aug 30, 2011 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
even throwing – I throw from my legs and want to get my ass turned over
maybe the hips are the indicator for me of strong leg action
by Hollywood Joe on Aug 30, 2011 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
not a chance
But at first base it might have made him worse in comparison.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
hyperbole is allowed when saying someone is the worst hitter in baseball. The statement alone is over the top enough that it should not come under scrutiny unless it is totally bogus.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Considering his age and level of experience, I say yes.
Nothing is ever easy.
by drulenarendes on Aug 30, 2011 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions
How many innings do you think he throws next year?
he will probably have thrown less then 70 this year by the time its all over this year. Earliest he can be ready for the bigs end of 2013, but more likely 2014?
127 Minor League innings
19 Major League Innings
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
you think they talk on 80 innings next year?
I’m guessing those major league innings are in relief. Or you are just pulling my leg.
doesn’t take all that long to lengthen someone out. Starting in spring training he’ll make starts of 20, 40, 60, 75, 90, then no limit. the issue is going to come in the volume of innings rather than his ability to go deep into games.
Way easier to go from reliever to starter (assuming your stuff translates), than going from starter to oft-used reliever.
@RB_GScott
the issue is going to come in the volume of innings rather than his ability to go deep into games.
Which is why I asked about number of innings. My main question is when will he be ready for a major league starter workload.
I hate to go against myself here because for a while I’ve been saying we will have no money for 2012 but if we did…………
I’d rather have Lance Berkman playing 1st base for two years then Prince for six. Thoughts?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
do I really have to think about it?
my gut says pass on Lance, but I have no data to support that feeling
I would be waiting for the precipitous drop….
by Hollywood Joe on Aug 30, 2011 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm iffy on Berkman
He’ll be what, 35 next year? He’s had a great season, but has not been great the previous couple seasons. I’d be afraid to sign him for fear that this year was an aberration.
Nothing is ever easy.
by drulenarendes on Aug 30, 2011 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t think we’ll get the chance to find out with Berkman. I think we’re more likely to get Derrek Lee if it’s not James Loney.
@RB_GScott
Lee is done, losing the whole year and not hitting when he did play, he will be hard pressed to get a major league deal. To many injuries piling up.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 30, 2011 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but he’ll get a shot somewhere. 3mil-ish guaranteed with another 5 in incentives? Sounds like a Ned Deal™
@RB_GScott
Baltimore threw him a bone this past year, he couldn’t chew it, I’ll be shocked if he gets the deal you mention above.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 30, 2011 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know about threw him a bone. He played really well over the last 40 games after being traded to Atlanta (.849OPS), was about league average this year and got traded to Pittsburgh.
@RB_GScott
D. lee’s OPS is the same as Loney’s right now, but we might get Lee for half what Loney could get in arb.
@RB_GScott
For a first baseman.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
so then what do you do when
Lee spends 3 months on the DL. then you have someone worse than both of them playing significant time.
I say put Sands at 1B
Go after Willingham in LF for 3 years and the offense looks pretty good. Resign Carroll for 1 year, Miles off the bench for another year, and this isn’t too bad a team. I’m just wondering for when Blake leaves, who is the starting 3B, and if it’s Uribe, who is the starting 2B? Dejesus?
SS. Gordon
2B. Dejesus
CF. Kemp
RF. Ethier
LF. Willingham
1B. Sands
C. Barajas (what are the odds he doesn’t come back?)
3B. Uribe
P. Kershaw
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Even with Kershaw pitching:)
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 30, 2011 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, I guess not. Kershaw on 3 days rest for the next 3 seasons, FTW!
by Michael White on Aug 30, 2011 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Offensively they are better than this year
Willingham is a very nice bat to have, Sands will most definitely improve upon this year, even if it’s around average or just below average, Uribe will rebound to better numbers, there’s almost no way he can’t, Dejesus seems to have found his ability to draw a walk again, and I think Gordon will struggle but it’s whatever.
This is a better lineup than we’ve got this year.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
That slug can drop.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I would bet my new tv that he will do at least .050 points better in OPS, if not at LEAST .075-.100
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
How much do you think that .100 points would have helped this year though
Look at what James Loney’s hot streak has done for the Dodgers this week alone.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
James Loney’s OPS the last 60 PAs is about double his season average. .100 points is like,2 singles a week better.
@RB_GScott
And it’s raised his OPS nearly .100 points in that span. And do you think 2 singles a week better wouldn’t be helpful? And it wouldn’t just be 2 singles, it would be a hand ful more home runs and doubles as well, and some of those RISP situations where nothing happened may have changed.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
He’s hitting better than Ethier now oh God kill me.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
.365 career wOBA
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2103&position=OF
I’d love another .360+ wOBA bat in our lineup (I still consider Ethier one for next year).
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
If you going to go after Willingham then put him at 1st base. He has no business being in LF.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 30, 2011 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
If that's the case then switch Sands in LF and Willingham at first base
Both positions will be upgraded in that case for the most part.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
I have no idea how this lineup looks worse to people than this year's lineup
We’ve got a guy with no home runs in 3 seasons and 12 rbis (same player), a gnome who though has 3 HR, has absolutely no power and just one incredible month (pierre, anyone?), up till last week a catcher slightly better than Jeff Mathis, up until the AS break a LF that was the 2nd worst in baseball behind the Mariners LF situation.
At SS it will be a push, 2B might be slightly worse, Kemp is Kemp, Ethier should be better, Willingham is a huge upgrade, Sands can do as good as Loney has this year, I have no doubt (if not better), Barajas will have the power and no OBP just like this year, and team will Ellis who will actually get on base, then Uribe really cannot be worse than this year, so I’d have to imagine will be an upgrade.
Am I wrong?
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
It's not that it's worse
It’s just still bad.
by Michael White on Aug 30, 2011 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Are we honestly expecting anything different
I could go the fanboy route and say we could get Fielder and get Jimmy Rollins (ew) at SS, but we all know there aren’t any big free agent guys in our immediate future.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Based on the season splits you’re looking at
Push at catcher
Push to slight upgrade at first
Downgrade to push at second
Downgrade to push at short (with better defense)
Downgrade at third
Big upgrade in left (with a decent drop in defense)
Push in center (Kemps numbers do suggest 2009 is closer to his true talent level)
Push in right
It’s an upgrade, but not a huge one.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess Carroll and Miles only hit when they play a certain position because I was expecting one of those infield slots to be better.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Aug 30, 2011 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I think they've just played back and forth so much but were never really spectacular in any of the positions
Or maybe it was just Furcal and Uribe dragging down 2b, 3b, and ss all year, lol.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Do you really think it's a push in Right with Ethier having his worst season since he was a rookie?
I wouldn’t call it a downgrade at SS, since collectively it’s been .261/.323/.321 for the Dodgers this year. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Dee can put up those numbers, and with some explosive defense.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Honestly with a little luck the Dodgers catching numbers might be able to go up with a tandem of
Barajas with the power and Ellis with the patience. It won’t be pretty, but hopefully not 6th worst in baseball.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Is 8 being bandied about for Prince?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 30, 2011 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Crawford is also 500 pounds lighter.
Nothing is ever easy.
by drulenarendes on Aug 30, 2011 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Historical eight year deals might be less then the fingers on one hand.
Someone want to help me:
I have Arod
Jeter?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 30, 2011 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Tulowitzki
Longoria (counting option years)
by Michael White on Aug 30, 2011 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
ok but I think he gets 7 years
not 6, but how often do 27 year old mvp runner ups hit the free market?
I’m not often inclined to say this, but I agree with Phil.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
You must be wrong alot:)
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 30, 2011 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
So...
You want Berkman for 2 years, followed by Fielder for 6 years? Because that is what your sentence says. I know you mean you would rather have Berkman THAN Fielder, but it’s not what you wrote. Then is used for sequences in time, than is for comparisons. Sorry to be the grammar police. You are not the only person making this mistake, but your sentence is a great example of the confusion that can result from using the wrong word.
Actually...
I was. I had to read his post twice before I realized he wasn’t talking about Fielder following Berkman after 2 years. Words are tricky that way: if you don’t use them properly you can end up saying the wrong thing.
I thought the word "rather"
really tipped off that one would expect a “than” in that sentence not a “then”. Tipped it off so much that I didn’t even notice the typo/misusage.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Aug 31, 2011 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
A
Few things I know:
1. 2012 season tickets sales will be the lowest in over 30 years.
2. Until a reorganization plan is approved, the Dodgers will not be able to commit to anyone bedides players under contract/control.
3. The questions regarding tendering Ethier, Loney and Kuo will be open until December.
4. Front office and field staff changes will be minimal.
by bhsportsguy on Aug 30, 2011 10:11 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Farmer’s Field looks mighty epic
by Julio Nievas on Aug 30, 2011 10:24 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
whereas the concept of the stadium in industry looks like a damn carnival
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on Aug 30, 2011 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Texas A&M to leave the B12; join SEC
This should now be the inviting move for the best conference commisioner in the FBS to give OU and other schools in the B12 a call.
And TCU too
by Julio Nievas on Aug 30, 2011 10:29 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Blah, more smoke than mirrors
by Julio Nievas on Aug 30, 2011 10:36 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
You want TCU in the Pac-Whatever? Why?
by Michael White on Aug 30, 2011 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Same reason why Colorado is in the Pac12.
by Julio Nievas on Aug 30, 2011 10:34 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
If that’s really what Julio is saying then why bother being a college football fan at all? The NFL makes a shit ton of money and it’s a better product anyway.
by Michael White on Aug 30, 2011 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m a big fan of realignment and have accepted the fact that the game wont bethe same in the next decade.
by Julio Nievas on Aug 30, 2011 10:38 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
LONEY will pass Either in RBI before the last week of the season
by Blue since 1952 on Aug 30, 2011 5:54 PM PDT reply actions
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