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Padres vs Dodgers, August 31st Simulation + Contest Finale

Rules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it.  You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score.  If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score.  Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so.  For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess.  I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll.  As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet.  A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.

Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).

Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)

Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:20 PM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Wade LeBlanc Ted Lilly Dodgers 58.42% 7.6 52.06% 7.62

 

1 LAN 3-2 5:1   51 SD 6-0 37:1   101 LAN 11-3 183:1
2 LAN 4-3 6:1   52 LAN 7-5 37:1   102 SD 11-3 183:1
3 LAN 2-1 7:1   53 SD 7-6 40:1   103 LAN 11-2 186:1
4 SD 3-2 7:1   54 SD 8-2 44:1   104 SD 11-2 199:1
5 LAN 5-4 8:1   55 SD 8-3 44:1   105 SD 11-4 201:1
6 SD 4-3 8:1   56 LAN 8-2 46:1   106 SD 10-6 208:1
7 SD 2-1 9:1   57 LAN 6-0 48:1   107 SD 11-1 222:1
8 LAN 4-2 10:1   58 SD 8-4 50:1   108 LAN 10-6 224:1
9 SD 4-2 10:1   59 SD 8-1 51:1   109 LAN 11-4 224:1
10 SD 3-1 10:1   60 LAN 8-7 51:1   110 SD 10-0 229:1
11 LAN 3-1 11:1   61 LAN 8-3 51:1   111 LAN 11-1 231:1
12 SD 5-4 13:1   62 SD 7-0 54:1   112 LAN 10-0 237:1
13 SD 4-1 13:1   63 LAN 8-4 56:1   113 SD 10-7 237:1
14 LAN 5-3 13:1   64 SD 8-5 56:1   114 LAN 10-9 242:1
15 LAN 4-1 13:1   65 LAN 8-1 56:1   115 SD 11-5 262:1
16 LAN 6-5 14:1   66 LAN 8-5 61:1   116 LAN 12-3 268:1
17 SD 5-3 14:1   67 SD 8-6 69:1   117 LAN 10-7 271:1
18 LAN 5-2 14:1   68 SD 9-2 73:1   118 SD 12-3 274:1
19 SD 5-2 14:1   69 LAN 9-2 73:1   119 SD 12-1 297:1
20 LAN 1-0 14:1   70 SD 9-4 74:1   120 LAN 11-5 300:1
21 SD 2-0 17:1   71 LAN 8-6 76:1   121 SD 12-2 320:1
22 SD 1-0 18:1   72 SD 9-3 77:1   122 SD 10-8 333:1
23 LAN 2-0 18:1   73 SD 9-1 77:1   123 SD 11-6 337:1
24 SD 3-0 18:1   74 SD 8-0 77:1   124 LAN 12-2 367:1
25 SD 5-1 19:1   75 LAN 7-0 78:1   125 LAN 11-6 372:1
26 SD 6-4 19:1   76 LAN 9-3 80:1   126 SD 11-0 384:1
27 LAN 3-0 19:1   77 LAN 9-4 81:1   127 LAN 12-4 396:1
28 SD 6-3 19:1   78 SD 8-7 81:1   128 LAN 11-0 402:1
29 LAN 6-3 19:1   79 LAN 9-1 87:1   129 LAN 12-1 402:1
30 LAN 5-1 20:1   80 SD 9-5 97:1   130 LAN 12-5 409:1
31 SD 6-2 21:1   81 LAN 9-5 101:1   131 SD 10-9 430:1
32 LAN 6-4 21:1   82 LAN 8-0 107:1   132 SD 12-4 430:1
33 SD 6-5 21:1   83 SD 10-2 109:1   133 LAN 11-7 499:1
34 LAN 6-2 22:1   84 LAN 9-8 112:1   134 LAN 10-8 509:1
35 SD 4-0 23:1   85 LAN 10-3 114:1   135 LAN 12-6 520:1
36 LAN 7-6 25:1   86 LAN 10-2 114:1   136 SD 12-5 531:1
37 SD 6-1 25:1   87 SD 10-3 114:1   137 SD 12-6 531:1
38 LAN 4-0 26:1   88 SD 9-6 116:1   138 SD 12-0 543:1
39 LAN 6-1 27:1   89 LAN 10-4 121:1   139 SD 11-8 555:1
40 SD 7-4 30:1   90 LAN 9-6 122:1   140 SD 13-3 555:1
41 LAN 7-3 30:1   91 SD 9-0 127:1   141 SD 13-4 567:1
42 SD 7-2 31:1   92 SD 10-1 129:1   142 LAN 13-4 581:1
43 SD 5-0 31:1   93 SD 10-4 134:1   143 LAN 13-3 609:1
44 SD 7-3 31:1   94 LAN 10-1 150:1   144 SD 13-1 640:1
45 LAN 7-2 31:1   95 SD 9-7 150:1   145 SD 13-2 657:1
46 LAN 7-4 33:1   96 SD 10-5 151:1   146 LAN 13-2 694:1
47 LAN 5-0 34:1   97 LAN 9-7 152:1   147 LAN 13-5 694:1
48 SD 7-1 35:1   98 SD 9-8 168:1   148 SD 11-7 694:1
49 SD 7-5 35:1   99 LAN 9-0 169:1   149 LAN 12-0 757:1
50 LAN 7-1 36:1   100 LAN 10-5 175:1   150 LAN 14-2 781:1

 

 

Actual Contest Questions

A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Ted Lilly Earned Runs: 2.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Wade LeBlanc K-BB: 1.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Juan Rivera RBIs : 0.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Ted Lilly walks plus hits allowed: 6.5 (1:1)

F. (Prop bet) Padres get more hits than the Dodgers: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Ted Lilly gives up more than 1 HR : (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Guess the correct number of total bases Matt Kemp will get: (5:1)


Sample Bet
#50 LAN 7-1
10AO
5CU
15DU
40H TB=2

Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid.  250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title.  Players in questions B,C,D,E,G,H must all start for that question to be valid.  On question H, you must correctly guess how many total bases Matt Kemp will get.


August Leaderboard Via Google Docs

Comment 23 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

Display:

1. jrock247 (630)
2. MammothDodger (480)
3. 68elcamino427 (400)
4. Xeifrank (243)
5. Josie Becker (225)
6. underdog (205)
7. fbihop (185)
8. keithc13 (160)
9. HummaKavula (140)
10. mleadman (130)
11. David Young (101)
12. henry-dekoyuer (80)
13. StolenMonkey86 (67)
14. G.Scott (50)
15. Notorious De La Rosa (40)
Max bet of 25 below here
16. truemontenegro (-10)
17. Dodgermanramon (-125)
18. Eric Stephen (-150)
19. WGiles24 (-200)
20. Phil Gurnee (-250)

Note: This is the last day of the August contest. After today’s game, points will be reset. If you would like to hide your picks from others, feel free to email them to me and I will post them once the game starts (xeifrank – yahoo – com)

by Xeifrank on Aug 31, 2011 12:22 AM PDT reply actions  

100 LAN 10-5 175:1

380AO
100H 6

"Pitching is the art of instilling fear."

by MammothDodger on Aug 31, 2011 9:31 AM PDT reply actions  

#29 LAN 6-3

20AO
50EO
20DO

It's not what you look like, when you're doin' what you're doin'
It's what you're doin' when you're doin' what you look like you're doin'!

by mleadman on Aug 31, 2011 10:09 AM PDT reply actions  

71 LAN 8-6 76:1

25H. (Prop bet) Guess the correct number of total bases Matt Kemp will get: (5:1)

One

by truemontenegro on Aug 31, 2011 10:13 AM PDT reply actions  

You hit it. Too bad your wad was so small. :)

by Xeifrank on Aug 31, 2011 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

28 SD 6-3

140G

magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur

by Humma Kavula on Aug 31, 2011 10:44 AM PDT reply actions  

You just need a 10-run 8th inning from LA, + 2 scoreless innings from SD. You got this.


- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Aug 31, 2011 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Completely forgot this was a day game!

149 LAN 12-0 757:1

Was the only bet I would have made.


- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Aug 31, 2011 12:28 PM PDT reply actions  

No emailed picks, so this is it. Elcamino is holding pat. But holding pat won’t win since jrock247 only wagered 100 units. I was surprised that those wagering on H picked such unlikely total base totals.

by Xeifrank on Aug 31, 2011 12:44 PM PDT reply actions  

what are the more likely TB totals?

@RB_GScott

by G.Scott on Aug 31, 2011 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

1,0,2,3,4,5,6,7….. (first two are pretty even)

I guess people didn’t want to copy picks. But 7 will be very rare.

by Xeifrank on Aug 31, 2011 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

To be fair I bet at 4:30 this morning cause I’m fishin. “If” matty hits a homer my 5 total bases is looking good though.

by jrock247 on Aug 31, 2011 2:19 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

jrock247 wins

I will post the results later tonight after I get back from The Nard.

by Xeifrank on Aug 31, 2011 3:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Sweet, I thought for sure someone was going to get past me.

by jrock247 on Sep 1, 2011 6:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

Final August Standings

1. jrock247 530
2. 68elcamino427 400
3. underdog 205
4. keithc13 160
5. mleadman 140
6. truemontenegro 115 <<<< Daily winner
7. David Young 101
8. henry-dekoyuer 80
9. StolenMonkey86 67
10. Notorious De La Rosa 40
11. G.Scott 0
11. HummaKavula 0
11. fbihop 0
11. Josie Becker 0
11. Xeifrank 0
11. MammothDodger 0
17. Dodgermanramon -125
18. Eric Stephen -175
19. WGiles24 -225
20. Phil Gurnee -250

by Xeifrank on Aug 31, 2011 9:30 PM PDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


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Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $490,000
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 37 Herrera $375,082
3B 6 Hairston $2,250,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000
LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 10 Gwynn $850,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF/1B 33 Van Slyke $388,197
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
OF/1B 30 Sands $375,175
IF 13 DeJesus $448,992
C 18 Treanor $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000

CL 74
Jansen $491,000
RHP 52 Lindblom $483,000
RHP 51 Belisario $414,426
RHP 54 Guerra $488,000
RHP 28
Wright $900,000
LHP 57 Elbert $488,500
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000

DL 27 Kemp $10,000,000
DL 21 Rivera $4,000,000
DL 12 Sellers $481,000
DL 5 Uribe $8,000,000
DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
DL 14 Ellis $2,500,000
60DL 36 Hawksworth $495,000
60DL 41 De La Rosa $485,000

AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

Totals
$115,942,869

For more detailed information, click here.

Current 40-man roster count: 42
(incl. De La Rosa & Hawksworth)

Yahoo_full_count

Manager

Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

Editors

100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

Dgy_small David Young

Hanauma_bay_small Chad Moriyama

2501_small Michael White

Raptors_small Brandon Lennox

Img_0103_small CraigMinami