Diamondbacks vs Dodgers, September 12th Simulation + Contest
by Xeifrank on Sep 11, 2011 10:43 PM PDT
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PrintRules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it. You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score. If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score. Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so. For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess. I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll. As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet. A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.
Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).
Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)
Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 10:15 PM)
| Vis Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas O/U | Sim Fave Win% | Sim O/U |
| Joe Saunders | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 53.38% | 7.4 | 49.96% | 7.59 |
| 1 LAN 3-2 5:1 | 51 ARI 8-2 39:1 | 101 ARI 10-0 173:1 | ||
| 2 LAN 4-3 6:1 | 52 ARI 7-6 40:1 | 102 LAN 9-0 193:1 | ||
| 3 LAN 2-1 6:1 | 53 ARI 8-3 40:1 | 103 ARI 10-6 195:1 | ||
| 4 ARI 3-2 7:1 | 54 LAN 7-5 41:1 | 104 ARI 9-8 201:1 | ||
| 5 ARI 4-3 8:1 | 55 LAN 7-1 43:1 | 105 ARI 11-5 217:1 | ||
| 6 LAN 5-4 8:1 | 56 ARI 8-1 45:1 | 106 LAN 11-2 222:1 | ||
| 7 ARI 2-1 9:1 | 57 ARI 8-4 48:1 | 107 LAN 11-3 224:1 | ||
| 8 ARI 4-2 9:1 | 58 LAN 6-0 49:1 | 108 LAN 10-5 229:1 | ||
| 9 ARI 3-1 10:1 | 59 ARI 7-0 49:1 | 109 LAN 9-7 229:1 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-2 11:1 | 60 LAN 8-2 54:1 | 110 ARI 12-3 235:1 | ||
| 11 LAN 3-1 11:1 | 61 ARI 8-5 54:1 | 111 ARI 12-1 242:1 | ||
| 12 ARI 5-4 12:1 | 62 ARI 9-2 58:1 | 112 ARI 10-7 257:1 | ||
| 13 ARI 5-3 13:1 | 63 ARI 9-3 60:1 | 113 ARI 12-2 271:1 | ||
| 14 LAN 1-0 13:1 | 64 LAN 8-7 61:1 | 114 LAN 11-1 271:1 | ||
| 15 LAN 4-1 13:1 | 65 LAN 8-3 61:1 | 115 LAN 11-4 277:1 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-3 13:1 | 66 ARI 9-1 63:1 | 116 LAN 10-6 287:1 | ||
| 17 LAN 6-5 14:1 | 67 LAN 8-1 64:1 | 117 ARI 12-4 304:1 | ||
| 18 ARI 4-1 14:1 | 68 LAN 8-4 65:1 | 118 ARI 11-0 316:1 | ||
| 19 LAN 5-2 14:1 | 69 ARI 8-6 66:1 | 119 ARI 10-8 320:1 | ||
| 20 ARI 5-2 14:1 | 70 LAN 7-0 69:1 | 120 LAN 10-0 324:1 | ||
| 21 ARI 2-0 17:1 | 71 ARI 9-4 69:1 | 121 ARI 12-5 328:1 | ||
| 22 ARI 5-1 17:1 | 72 LAN 8-6 73:1 | 122 LAN 10-9 333:1 | ||
| 23 ARI 1-0 17:1 | 73 LAN 8-5 74:1 | 123 LAN 11-5 346:1 | ||
| 24 LAN 2-0 18:1 | 74 ARI 8-0 78:1 | 124 ARI 11-6 367:1 | ||
| 25 ARI 3-0 19:1 | 75 ARI 8-7 84:1 | 125 LAN 10-7 390:1 | ||
| 26 ARI 6-2 20:1 | 76 ARI 10-2 87:1 | 126 LAN 10-8 409:1 | ||
| 27 ARI 6-4 20:1 | 77 ARI 9-5 88:1 | 127 ARI 12-0 416:1 | ||
| 28 LAN 3-0 20:1 | 78 LAN 9-2 89:1 | 128 ARI 10-9 423:1 | ||
| 29 LAN 5-1 20:1 | 79 LAN 9-3 91:1 | 129 ARI 13-3 423:1 | ||
| 30 ARI 6-5 20:1 | 80 ARI 10-3 94:1 | 130 ARI 13-2 430:1 | ||
| 31 ARI 6-3 21:1 | 81 LAN 9-4 103:1 | 131 ARI 11-7 430:1 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-3 21:1 | 82 LAN 9-1 104:1 | 132 LAN 12-2 446:1 | ||
| 33 LAN 6-2 22:1 | 83 ARI 9-0 109:1 | 133 LAN 12-1 446:1 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-4 22:1 | 84 LAN 9-8 111:1 | 134 LAN 11-0 480:1 | ||
| 35 ARI 6-1 24:1 | 85 ARI 10-4 112:1 | 135 LAN 12-3 480:1 | ||
| 36 ARI 4-0 24:1 | 86 ARI 9-6 117:1 | 136 LAN 12-4 499:1 | ||
| 37 LAN 7-6 26:1 | 87 LAN 8-0 118:1 | 137 LAN 11-6 499:1 | ||
| 38 LAN 4-0 26:1 | 88 ARI 10-1 119:1 | 138 ARI 13-4 531:1 | ||
| 39 ARI 7-2 27:1 | 89 LAN 10-2 125:1 | 139 LAN 11-7 543:1 | ||
| 40 ARI 5-0 27:1 | 90 LAN 9-5 126:1 | 140 ARI 13-1 555:1 | ||
| 41 ARI 7-3 27:1 | 91 LAN 10-3 136:1 | 141 ARI 11-8 609:1 | ||
| 42 LAN 6-1 28:1 | 92 ARI 11-2 144:1 | 142 ARI 12-6 609:1 | ||
| 43 ARI 7-1 32:1 | 93 ARI 11-3 146:1 | 143 LAN 12-5 609:1 | ||
| 44 LAN 7-3 32:1 | 94 ARI 10-5 147:1 | 144 LAN 13-1 657:1 | ||
| 45 ARI 7-4 32:1 | 95 LAN 9-6 148:1 | 145 ARI 12-7 657:1 | ||
| 46 LAN 5-0 33:1 | 96 ARI 9-7 149:1 | 146 LAN 13-4 675:1 | ||
| 47 LAN 7-4 34:1 | 97 ARI 11-4 150:1 | 147 LAN 13-2 675:1 | ||
| 48 ARI 7-5 35:1 | 98 LAN 10-4 151:1 | 148 ARI 14-2 675:1 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-2 36:1 | 99 ARI 11-1 170:1 | 149 ARI 14-3 694:1 | ||
| 50 ARI 6-0 38:1 | 100 LAN 10-1 170:1 | 150 LAN 12-6 757:1 |
Actual Contest Questions
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Matt Kemp Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Question removed due to operator error.
D. O/U Dodgers runs minus Diamondbacks runs: 0.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Dodgers bullpen hits allowed: 2.5 (1:1)
F. (Prop bet) Ted Lilly is the winning pitcher: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Jerry Sands or Matt Kemp hits a HR: (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Ted Lilly gives up more than one HR: (5:1)
Sample Bet
#37 LAN 7-6
10AO
5CU
15DU
5H
Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid. 250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title. Players in questions B,C,F,G,H must all start for that question to be valid.
Note: I will be on vacation during the month of September. There will be no contest between the dates of 9/16 and 9/25.
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Comments
September Leaderboard
1. Josie Becker (800, -25)
2. Eric Stephen (654, -120)
3. Phil Gurnee (350, 0)
4. 68elcamino (170, -10)
5. Taylor Maricle (160, -120)
6. HummaKavula (140, 0)
7. Xeifrank (128, 0)
8. WGiles24 (120, -40)
9. fbihop (115, 0)
10. David Young (43, 0)
MAX BET OF 25 BELOW HERE
11. Vegas Blues (10, -70)
12. G.Scott (0, 0)
12. truemontenegro (0, -15)
12. keithc13 (0, -125)
15. MammothDodger (-25, -25)
47 LAN 7-4 34:1
25G. (Prop bet) Jerry Sands or Matt Kemp hits a HR: (3:1)
by truemontenegro on Sep 12, 2011 12:32 AM PDT reply actions
17 LAN 6-5
10B
20D
40E
10G
20H
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
Sorry
10BO
20DO
40EO
10G
20H
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Sep 12, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
10 LAN 4-2 11:1
Valley Girl is one of the greatest parody songs ever penned, but as a South Bay Girl I’m like, so offended OMG. Gag me with a spoon! Oh right, my picks…
50H
Angry Samoans – Carson Girls, but if I had to think of an anthem for the whole South Bay, it’d probably be Beach Boys – California Girls
by Josie Becker on Sep 12, 2011 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions
That’s a bit overreaching to claim California Girls as a South Bay anthem, though their connection to the region is undeniable. Maybe Fun, Fun, Fun?
I always thought Rock And Roll Hoochie Koo had a South Bay reference, but maybe not:
I couldn’t stop moving when it first took hold
It was a warm spring night at the Old Towne Mall
There was a band called The Jokers, they were laying it down
Don’t yout know I’m never gonna lose that funky sound
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
47 LAN 7-4 34:1
25BO
25DO
25EU
25F
25G
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Sep 12, 2011 11:56 AM PDT reply actions
my god. this month’s contest is over.
by truemontenegro on Sep 12, 2011 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, if Lilly gives up a couple HRs, Josie will also have a four-digit bankroll to play with, but…..
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
37 LAN 7-6 26:1
20BO Matt Kemp Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
20DO Dodgers runs minus Diamondbacks runs: 0.5 (1:1)
3G. (Prop bet) Jerry Sands or Matt Kemp hits a HR: (3:1)
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
#39 ARI 7-2 OOXUO No-Yes-No
Huge night from Phil (GFY). It is Phil though, so it’s still not over. If this were final jeopardy he’d still be within striking distance. No need for Josie, Eric and others to panic just yet.
1. Phil Gurnee (1400, 1050)
2. Josie Becker (750, -50)
3. Eric Stephen (704, 50)
4. WGiles24 (300, 180)
5. 68elcamino (220, 50)
6. Xeifrank (201, 73)
7. Taylor Maricle (185, 25)
8. HummaKavula (180, 40)
9. fbihop (115, 0)
10. truemontenegro (75, 75)
11. David Young (52, 9)
12. keithc13 (0, 0)
13. Vegas Blues (-15, -25)
14. G.Scott (-25, -25)
15. MammothDodger (-50, -25)
Good choice, I don’t have my finger on the panic switch yet.
by Josie Becker on Sep 12, 2011 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions
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