James Loney’s Late Surge: Regression To The Mean Or Legitimate Growth?
"James Loney, forever a spark plug for debate among executives, scouts, and fans alike.
Prior to the 2002 draft, there was debate as to whether he was better as a pitcher or a hitter. During his time in the minors, there was debate as to whether he would ever use his size to develop a power stroke. In the majors, he has sparked many different debates between fans, most of them revolving around his RBI totals.
Now though, there’s a different debate going on, one that revolves around his sudden improvement late in 2011 season. His monthly OPS splits tell the story, reading .489, .763, .786, .455, 1.066, and 1.091. More importantly though, why has he improved and could it mark a turning point in his career?"
I thought the post was interesting and deserved attention. Go check it out if you want.
8 months ago
Chad Moriyama
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What a great read
This justifies my optimism on Loney.
Its really shocking how that change of approach has done for Loney. Hitting coaches to matter… To an extent. In Loney’s case, it may be a career changer.
Thanks a lot Chad, this was a really great read. Solid analysis
by Julio Nievas on Sep 20, 2011 7:40 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Good work
confirms some of what has me so confused – on numbers alone I would never advocate bringing him back
but my eyes tell me he has changed
As many know, I was one of his biggest disbelievers.
Still am to an extent, but after I looked at potential replacements, if the Dodgers aren’t going to pony up for an elite hitter, it’s down to Carlos Pena.
:o
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 20, 2011 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions
I have been playing with my stance since this run of Loney’s – I have gone from about 2 inches closed to neutral
not sure to what effect yet
by Hollywood Joe on Sep 20, 2011 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I would like to hear Reg and G Scott about this
And you too, Joey Joe
by Julio Nievas on Sep 20, 2011 8:04 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
This is great stuff Chad, glad you finally found an outlet that enables you to write again.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
excellent
I’m lucky as a Dodger fan to have such great bloggers. I’m now more confused than ever about Loney as I’ve always like him but never trusted him, but I agree, outside of Prince, pujols, or Pena (berkman’s too old) I would go for Improved game james
by Lex in Brooklyn on Sep 20, 2011 8:46 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
It’s confusing for everybody, I think.
Positions are divided, justifiably so.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 20, 2011 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Don’t get me started on camera.
You can’t even analyze home and away games because they all use different damn angles.
Why can’t everybody just use the overhead camera directly behind the pitcher? The technology is there now and it gives the most realistic view.
God.
/Rant
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 20, 2011 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Excellent analysis Chad
And a great read as well. Being a lazy reader at times, I would have liked some of the numerical tables in graph form, but that is a minor thing. I appreciate the effort that goes into an article and analysis like this, especially in making your points clear to many levels of baseball readers. Well done.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I would do that but I am not good with computer.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 20, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
The problem is that he could very well have made these adjustments and as streaky hitters often do, simply abandon them.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I think streaky hitters get out of rhythm or fall into bad habits – to me this change is larger than that
the test will be when he slumps, does he remain committed to what he has found here – does he change or has he changed?
by Hollywood Joe on Sep 20, 2011 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
James has a long history of tinkering, you’d think he would stick with what is working but history says he will tinker again and flounder, well he be able to find himself after that happens? Million $ question.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Phil the question is not baseball but existential
does he change or has he changed?
and I go back to my Humma like aphorism – “Whatever decision the Dodgers make on James Loney, it will be the wrong decision.”
by Hollywood Joe on Sep 20, 2011 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
These are things we can never know. :o
Front office will have a much better idea, specifically the coaches if they are good at their job, and this staff seems eons ahead of last year’s.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 20, 2011 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
the staff
I think they have idea that they might stay
last year knew they were out the door
also, younger, building or in the midst of a career that has an arc which hopefully goes up….rather than playing out the end of days
by Hollywood Joe on Sep 20, 2011 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I want a new GM and Owner, but whoever comes in, I hope they keep this staff, I like it.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 20, 2011 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
that’s a little tough
lots of good coaches never made it out of the minors
by Hollywood Joe on Sep 20, 2011 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
i lied
Hillman signed with the Cleveland Indians in 1985 after playing college ball at the University of Texas-Arlington. He played in the Indians farm system from 1985–1987, appearing in 162 games and hitting .179 while playing various infield positions.
to be fair
hitting .179 is almost “not playing”
by Hollywood Joe on Sep 20, 2011 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions
What Phil is saying is part of what I was alluding to in the conclusion.
When they make these changes, it means nothing if they fuck it up again.
I was “right” on Matt Kemp only because he made and continued to stick with the adjustment in 2011.
There’s no guarantee with these mechanical switches. He could wake up today and completely screw himself.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 20, 2011 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Love the detail
great job Chad!
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 20, 2011 9:14 AM PDT reply actions
He looked like hope
And hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 20, 2011 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
My Fantasy Football team is named
Business Time
by Hollywood Joe on Sep 20, 2011 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Haven’t looked at it yet, but I remember never liking his power potential as a prospect because he would leak his lower half constantly.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 20, 2011 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
because he would leak his lower half constantly
I expect to have this problem in my older age. Thank god they invented Depends.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Holy crap
I bought 2 field level seats in section 56 row 5 for 20 bucks each for 2 tickets yesterday. Today i didn’t see field level seats on stub hub in right field for less than 150, and at least 50 in left field.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Section 46*
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
BTW Eric
James Loney: Same As He Ever Was
I hope this title from last week was inspired by the Talking Heads.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Maybe subconsciously, but not directly.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 20, 2011 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Nice piece
Seems like your conclusion of “as of now, I’m more willing to take a chance on Loney than ever before” can be read as a tepid Yes vote on tendering him. (Unless, of course, you were dead set against it before and have now moved only closer to halfway to Yes.)
Considering our other 1b options (Fielder is his own discussion), his salary status, and our ownership turmoil, I’d probably vote for Yes at this point.
I think what he is saying is
You remind me I live in a shell,
Safe from the past,
and doing’ okay,
but not very well.
No jolts, no surprises,
No crisis arises:
My life goes along as it should,
it’s all very nice,
but not very good.
And I’m Ready To Take A Chance Again,
Ready to put my love on the line with you.
Been living with nothing to show for it;
You get what you get when you go for it,
And I’m Ready To Take Chance Again with you.
When she left me in all my despair,
I just held on,
My hopes were all gone.
Then I found you there.
And I’m Ready To Take A Chance Again
Ready To Take A Chance Again with you,
With you.
by Hollywood Joe on Sep 20, 2011 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
I was dead set against it.
I quite openly mock Loney because of the support he gets from delusional fans who love RBI.
Still, it is what it is.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 20, 2011 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
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