What Will It Take For Matt Kemp To Win The Batting Title?

Matt Kemp has his work cut out for him, but the National League batting title and triple crown is still within his reach.

Matt Kemp still has a shot at the National League triple crown, but it will take a great closing series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, plus a little help from both Ryan Braun and Jose Reyes for Kemp to win the batting title.

Kemp in his career has hit .304/.335/.500 with seven home runs in 39 career games at Chase Field, where the Dodgers play their final three games of the season. This season, Kemp has hit .292 (seven hits in 24 at-bats) with two home runs in Phoenix. Kemp will face Daniel Hudson, Jarrod Parker (making his major league debut), and Joe Saunders.

Braun and the Brewers end their regular season at home with three games against the Pirates, facing starting pitchers Charlie Morton, Ross Ohlendorf, and the undefeated TBA.

Reyes and the Mets end at home against the Reds, facing Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, and Edinson Volquez.

Heading into Monday, here is the National League batting average leaderboard:

Player AB Hits AVG
Ryan Braun 556 185 .3327
Jose Reyes 526 174 .3308
Matt Kemp 589 191 .3243

Here is a look at all the possible batting average outcomes for each of the three players, ranging from one to 15 at-bats over the final three games:

Matt Kemp Batting Average Possible Outcomes
  Hits
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AB 1 .3237 .3254 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2 .3232 .3249 .3266 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
3 .3226 .3243 .3260 .3277 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
4 .3221 .3238 .3255 .3272 .3288 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
5 .3215 .3232 .3249 .3266 .3283 .3300 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
6 .3210 .3227 .3244 .3261 .3277 .3294 .3311 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
7 .3205 .3221 .3238 .3255 .3272 .3289 .3305 .3322 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
8 .3199 .3216 .3233 .3250 .3266 .3283 .3300 .3317 .3333 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
9 .3194 .3211 .3227 .3244 .3261 .3278 .3294 .3311 .3328 .3344 --- --- --- --- --- ---
10 .3189 .3205 .3222 .3239 .3255 .3272 .3289 .3306 .3322 .3339 .3356 --- --- --- --- ---
11 .3183 .3200 .3217 .3233 .3250 .3267 .3283 .3300 .3317 .3333 .3350 .3367 --- --- --- ---
12 .3178 .3195 .3211 .3228 .3245 .3261 .3278 .3295 .3311 .3328 .3344 .3361 .3378 --- --- ---
13 .3173 .3189 .3206 .3223 .3239 .3256 .3272 .3289 .3306 .3322 .3339 .3355 .3372 .3389 --- ---
14 .3168 .3184 .3201 .3217 .3234 .3250 .3267 .3284 .3300 .3317 .3333 .3350 .3367 .3383 .3400 ---
15 .3162 .3179 .3195 .3212 .3229 .3245 .3261 .3278 .3295 .3311 .3328 .3344 .3361 .3378 .3394 .3411

The best Kemp can do, in 15 at-bats, is collect 15 hits and finish at .3411. Here are the tables for both Ryan Braun and Jose Reyes, and I have highlighted in red any possible outcomes that would beat .3411.

Ryan Braun Batting Average Possible Outcomes
  Hits
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AB 1 .3321 .3339 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2 .3315 .3333 .3351 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
3 .3309 .3327 .3345 .3363 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
4 .3304 .3321 .3339 .3357 .3375 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
5 .3298 .3316 .3333 .3351 .3369 .3387
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
6 .3292 .3310 .3327 .3345 .3363 .3381 .3399 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
7 .3286 .3304 .3321 .3339 .3357 .3375 .3393 .3410 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
8 .3280 .3298 .3316 .3333 .3351 .3369 .3387 .3404 .3422 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
9 .3274 .3292 .3310 .3327 .3345 .3363 .3381 .3398 .3416 .3434 --- --- --- --- --- ---
10 .3269 .3286 .3304 .3322 .3339 .3357 .3375 .3392 .3410 .3428 .3445 --- --- --- --- ---
11 .3263 .3280 .3298 .3316 .3333 .3351 .3369 .3386 .3404 .3422 .3439 .3457 --- --- --- ---
12 .3257 .3275 .3292 .3310 .3327 .3345 .3363 .3380 .3398 .3415 .3433 .3451 .3468 --- --- ---
13 .3251 .3269 .3286 .3304 .3322 .3339 .3357 .3374 .3392 .3409 .3427 .3445 .3462 .3480 --- ---
14 .3246 .3263 .3281 .3298 .3316 .3333 .3351 .3368 .3386 .3404 .3421 .3439 .3456 .3474 .3491 ---
15 .3240 .3257 .3275 .3292 .3310 .3327 .3345 .3363 .3380 .3398 .3415 .3433 .3450 .3468 .3485 .3503

 

Jose Reyes Batting Average Possible Outcomes
  Hits
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AB 1 .3302 .3321 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2 .3295 .3314 .3333 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
3 .3289 .3308 .3327 .3346 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
4 .3283 .3302 .3321 .3340 .3358 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
5 .3277 .3296 .3315 .3333 .3352 .3371 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
6 .3271 .3289 .3308 .3327 .3346 .3365 .3383 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
7 .3265 .3283 .3302 .3321 .3340 .3358 .3377 .3396 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
8 .3258 .3277 .3296 .3315 .3333 .3352 .3371 .3390 .3408 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
9 .3252 .3271 .3290 .3308 .3327 .3346 .3364 .3383 .3402 .3421 --- --- --- --- --- ---
10 .3246 .3265 .3284 .3302 .3321 .3340 .3358 .3377 .3396 .3414 .3433 --- --- --- --- ---
11 .3240 .3259 .3277 .3296 .3315 .3333 .3352 .3371 .3389 .3408 .3426 .3445 --- --- --- ---
12 .3234 .3253 .3271 .3290 .3309 .3327 .3346 .3364 .3383 .3401 .3420 .3439 .3457 --- --- ---
13 .3228 .3247 .3265 .3284 .3302 .3321 .3340 .3358 .3377 .3395 .3414 .3432 .3451 .3469 --- ---
14 .3222 .3241 .3259 .3278 .3296 .3315 .3333 .3352 .3370 .3389 .3407 .3426 .3444 .3463 .3481 ---
15 .3216 .3235 .3253 .3272 .3290 .3309 .3327 .3346 .3364 .3383 .3401 .3420 .3438 .3457 .3475 .3494

Time to root for Kemp to finish seven for 12 (.3295), beating out a one-for-nine Braun (.3292) and a three-for-12 Reyes (.3290), while also hitting at least as many home runs over the next three (or four) days as Albert Pujols.

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