Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, September 28th Simulation + Contest
by Xeifrank on Sep 27, 2011 11:52 PM PDT
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PrintRules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it. You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score. If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score. Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so. For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess. I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll. As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet. A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.
Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).
Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)
Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:45 PM)
| Vis Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas O/U | Sim Fave Win% | Sim O/U |
| Ted Lilly | Joe Saunders | Diamondbacks | 52.94% | 8.5 | 58.93% | 8.92 |
| 1 ARI 4-3 6:1 | 51 LAN 7-2 37:1 | 101 LAN 10-2 119:1 | ||
| 2 ARI 3-2 6:1 | 52 ARI 8-4 38:1 | 102 ARI 11-1 126:1 | ||
| 3 ARI 5-4 7:1 | 53 ARI 8-5 38:1 | 103 ARI 12-3 131:1 | ||
| 4 ARI 2-1 9:1 | 54 ARI 8-1 39:1 | 104 ARI 11-5 133:1 | ||
| 5 LAN 3-2 10:1 | 55 LAN 1-0 39:1 | 105 ARI 10-9 136:1 | ||
| 6 ARI 6-5 10:1 | 56 LAN 8-3 42:1 | 106 ARI 12-2 137:1 | ||
| 7 ARI 4-2 11:1 | 57 LAN 8-6 43:1 | 107 LAN 10-6 137:1 | ||
| 8 LAN 4-3 11:1 | 58 ARI 9-3 43:1 | 108 ARI 10-7 141:1 | ||
| 9 ARI 5-3 12:1 | 59 ARI 6-0 44:1 | 109 ARI 12-4 144:1 | ||
| 10 LAN 5-4 13:1 | 60 ARI 8-6 46:1 | 110 ARI 10-0 146:1 | ||
| 11 ARI 3-1 13:1 | 61 ARI 9-2 46:1 | 111 LAN 8-0 148:1 | ||
| 12 LAN 4-2 13:1 | 62 LAN 8-5 46:1 | 112 LAN 11-3 148:1 | ||
| 13 ARI 5-2 14:1 | 63 LAN 8-4 46:1 | 113 LAN 11-4 150:1 | ||
| 14 ARI 4-1 14:1 | 64 LAN 4-0 47:1 | 114 LAN 10-1 152:1 | ||
| 15 LAN 5-3 15:1 | 65 LAN 8-2 48:1 | 115 LAN 10-7 154:1 | ||
| 16 LAN 2-1 16:1 | 66 LAN 7-1 49:1 | 116 ARI 12-1 156:1 | ||
| 17 ARI 6-3 16:1 | 67 ARI 9-4 53:1 | 117 LAN 10-8 158:1 | ||
| 18 LAN 3-1 16:1 | 68 LAN 8-7 54:1 | 118 ARI 10-8 174:1 | ||
| 19 ARI 7-6 17:1 | 69 ARI 9-1 56:1 | 119 LAN 11-2 180:1 | ||
| 20 LAN 5-2 17:1 | 70 ARI 9-8 56:1 | 120 LAN 10-9 183:1 | ||
| 21 ARI 6-4 17:1 | 71 ARI 7-0 58:1 | 121 ARI 11-6 184:1 | ||
| 22 LAN 6-5 18:1 | 72 LAN 5-0 60:1 | 122 LAN 11-5 186:1 | ||
| 23 LAN 6-4 19:1 | 73 LAN 9-3 63:1 | 123 LAN 11-6 192:1 | ||
| 24 ARI 5-1 19:1 | 74 LAN 9-4 63:1 | 124 LAN 9-0 198:1 | ||
| 25 LAN 4-1 20:1 | 75 LAN 8-1 64:1 | 125 ARI 12-5 209:1 | ||
| 26 LAN 6-3 21:1 | 76 ARI 9-5 64:1 | 126 ARI 13-3 219:1 | ||
| 27 ARI 6-2 21:1 | 77 ARI 10-2 65:1 | 127 ARI 13-4 227:1 | ||
| 28 ARI 1-0 22:1 | 78 ARI 9-6 67:1 | 128 ARI 11-0 227:1 | ||
| 29 ARI 7-4 23:1 | 79 LAN 6-0 67:1 | 129 LAN 12-4 235:1 | ||
| 30 ARI 6-1 23:1 | 80 LAN 9-6 68:1 | 130 ARI 12-6 240:1 | ||
| 31 ARI 7-3 23:1 | 81 LAN 9-2 70:1 | 131 LAN 11-7 244:1 | ||
| 32 ARI 7-2 23:1 | 82 ARI 8-0 70:1 | 132 ARI 13-2 247:1 | ||
| 33 LAN 6-2 24:1 | 83 ARI 10-4 71:1 | 133 LAN 12-3 254:1 | ||
| 34 ARI 3-0 25:1 | 84 LAN 9-5 73:1 | 134 ARI 11-10 257:1 | ||
| 35 ARI 2-0 25:1 | 85 ARI 10-3 74:1 | 135 ARI 11-7 260:1 | ||
| 36 ARI 7-5 28:1 | 86 ARI 11-2 81:1 | 136 LAN 12-5 260:1 | ||
| 37 LAN 7-4 28:1 | 87 ARI 10-1 82:1 | 137 LAN 12-2 271:1 | ||
| 38 LAN 7-5 28:1 | 88 ARI 10-5 85:1 | 138 LAN 11-1 280:1 | ||
| 39 LAN 7-6 29:1 | 89 ARI 11-3 86:1 | 139 ARI 13-1 283:1 | ||
| 40 ARI 8-7 29:1 | 90 LAN 9-8 89:1 | 140 ARI 11-8 290:1 | ||
| 41 ARI 4-0 29:1 | 91 ARI 11-4 90:1 | 141 ARI 13-5 297:1 | ||
| 42 LAN 5-1 29:1 | 92 LAN 10-4 93:1 | 142 LAN 11-8 308:1 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-3 30:1 | 93 LAN 7-0 93:1 | 143 LAN 11-10 333:1 | ||
| 44 ARI 7-1 32:1 | 94 ARI 9-7 95:1 | 144 LAN 11-9 351:1 | ||
| 45 ARI 8-3 33:1 | 95 LAN 9-7 99:1 | 145 ARI 14-2 351:1 | ||
| 46 LAN 2-0 34:1 | 96 LAN 9-1 106:1 | 146 ARI 12-0 351:1 | ||
| 47 ARI 8-2 34:1 | 97 LAN 10-5 108:1 | 147 LAN 13-3 351:1 | ||
| 48 ARI 5-0 34:1 | 98 ARI 9-0 108:1 | 148 LAN 13-4 362:1 | ||
| 49 LAN 6-1 35:1 | 99 LAN 10-3 108:1 | 149 LAN 12-6 372:1 | ||
| 50 LAN 3-0 36:1 | 100 ARI 10-6 113:1 | 150 LAN 11-0 384:1 |
Actual Contest Questions
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 8.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Matt Kemp Total Bases: 2.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Ted Lilly outs recorded: 19.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Diamondbacks runs minus Dodgers runs: 0.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Total number of extra base hits both teams combined: 5.5 (1:1)
F. (Prop bet) Joe Saunders is the winning pitcher: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Matt Kemp hits a HR : (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Ted Lilly gives up more than one HR: (5:1)
Sample Bet
#50 LAN 3-0
10AO
5CU
15DU
5H
Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid. 250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title. Players in questions B,C,F,G,H must all start for that question to be valid.
26 comments
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Comments
September Leaderboard
This is the last day, then points get reset for the LDS contest.
1. Phil Gurnee (250)
2. HummaKavula (80)
3. truemontenegro (10)
4. 68elcamino (0)
4. Xeifrank (0)
4. David Young (0)
4. Eric Stephen (0)
4. Riffraffselbow (0)
4. keithc13 (0)
10. fbihop (-25)
10. Josie Becker (-25)
12. Vegas Blues (-40)
13. WGiles24 (-50)
13. Taylor Maricle (-50)
15. MammothDodger (-75)
16. G.Scott (-125)
yes yes it would and...
so it is said, so let it be
by MammothDodger on Sep 28, 2011 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions
what up with that
trying to cover the guy in next to last?
by MammothDodger on Sep 28, 2011 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Crap, didn't see that.
I just took the least likely game score and the longest odds bet in a hail mary pass.
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Sep 28, 2011 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
FInal September Leaderboard
1. Phil ‘Jose Reyes’ Gurnee 250
2. truemontenegro 100
3. HummaKavula 80
4. WGiles24 25
4. Taylor Maricle 25
4. 68elcamino 25
7. MammothDodger 0
7. David Young 0
7. Riffraffselbow 0
10. fbihop -25
10. Josie Becker -25
10. Xeifrank -25
10. Eric Stephen -25
10. keithc13 -25
15. Vegas Blues -40
16. G.Scott -150
Thank You Xei
I thoroughly enjoy the game and thank you for running it!!!!
by MammothDodger on Sep 28, 2011 11:10 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
+ infinity
This turned into a great game. Sorry I missed the bet on the final game, I kept meaning to do it then got involved in something right after I got home and missed the opportunity.
Phil Gurnee
Yours Truly
July and Sept Champion
If knowledge can create problems, it is not through ignorance that we can solve them.
Indeed. Thanks for doing this Xeifrank. Was definitely enjoyable.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Sep 29, 2011 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
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