Both Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp are projected by Bill James to join the 20-20 club in 2013. - Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE
A look at the current starting lineup for the Dodgers and their 2013 projections from the Bill James Handbook.
The annual Bill James Handbook is out, which includes 2013 projections for just about every player. That gives us a chance to take a sneak peak at what a full season of the new-look Dodgers lineup might be like. The projections also show up on Fangraphs player pages as well.
Here is a look at the starting lineup, at least how it ended 2012:
Mark Ellis 2B: .252/.317/.361, .296 wOBA, eight home runs, 44 RBI, 54 runs
- Ellis, who has averaged 118 games per season for the last four years, is projected by play in 127 games in his age 36 season.
Carl Crawford LF: .274/.318/.413, .317 wOBA, 16 home runs, 68 RBI, 83 runs
- Crawford, who has stolen 23 bases in 161 games in the last two years, is projected by James to steal 36 bases in 153 games in 2013. Crawford's projection looks eerily similar to his production in 2008 (.273/.319/.400, .315 wOBA), when he went to the World Series with the Rays.
Adrian Gonzalez 1B: .303/.377/.502, .375 wOBA, 27 home runs, 107 RBI, 90 runs
- Gonzalez is projected to play 160 games, his average for the last seven seasons.
Matt Kemp CF: .298/.363/.521, .374 wOBA, 31 home runs, 101 RBI, 103 runs
- Kemp is also projected to play 157 games and steal 21 bases.
Hanley Ramirez SS: .281/.356/.470, .354 wOBA, 22 home runs, 75 RBI, 90 runs
- Ramirez last reached a .354 wOBA in 2010, and put up wOBAs of .317 and .328 in the last two seasons. James projects 23 steals for Ramirez, who has reached 20 home runs and 20 steaks in five of the last six years.
Andre Ethier RF: .284/.359/.465, .352 wOBA, 20 home runs, 85 RBI, 79 runs
- Ethier's 2013 projections look almost identical to his 2012 season, with a slight uptick in walks (from 8.1% of plate appearances to 9.6%, more in line with his career 9.5% mark).
Luis Cruz 3B: .260/.287/.390, .292 wOBA, seven home runs, 40 RBI, 37 runs
- The answer to what happens when Cruz, who went 120 plate appearances and 31 games without a walk to end his season, hits .260 instead of .297 isn't a pretty one. For what it's worth, Dee Gordon is projected to hit .265/.307/.323 with a .278 wOBA and 44 stolen bases.
A.J. Ellis C: .261/.368/.375, .323 wOBA, seven home runs, 44 RBI, 41 runs
- Ellis is projected for 108 games, which is 25 less than he played in 2012.
Plugging these eight players, plus the .187/.235/.228 line the Dodgers got from number nine hitters in 2012, into the lineup analysis tool on Baseball Musings, the team would average 4.7 runs per game. That translates into 760 runs, or 123 more than the team scored all of last season.
Realistic? Maybe that's a tad on the optimistic side, but the offense should be improved in 2013.