2012 Dodgers Player Profile: Ted Lilly, Beware the Big Stick

Mar. 11, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Ted Lilly (29) pitches during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Camelback Ranch. Dodgers won 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

Ted Lilly has his own three true outcomes: he pitches a lot of innings, since 2007 he has pitched 192 innings or more four times, in 2009, he pitched 177 innings; he has more stolen bases against than any other southpaw since 2001; and he has given up more home runs than any other left-hander since 2001.

2012 Dodgers Player Profiles
This continues our series of 2012 player profiles, where we will analyze one player per day, between now and the end of spring training. This is also the spot for our community projections, so be sure to give us your predictions for each player for this season in the comments section.

Now, that doesn't mean he hasn't been a capable starter, most long-lived starters are going to be high in those categories too, Roy Halladay has given up more stolen bases for one thing though only Javier Vasquez has given up more home runs (298-278). Despite what you might recall, there were only 11 times where Lilly gave up both a stolen base and a home run in the same game (12 times was the high by new Red Mat Latos).

Lilly has been bothered by a sore neck so his status for opening the season remains in flux. Since the Dodgers will only need their 5th starter once in the first nine games, the Dodgers have some time to figure out what to do with Lilly.

Trivia

In the Dodger Media Information Guide and other places, Torrance is his listed birthplace, on Baseball-Reference.com, he is listed as being from Lomita, which is not Torrance.

Theodore Roosevelt Lilly was born 118 years after the 26th President of the United States. To learn more about that Teddy, please check out Bob Timmermann's fine review of a Roosevelt biography.

Contract Status

Ted Lilly is in year two of his three year contract, and will be making $12 million dollars this year.

Previous Dodgers Player Profiles:

2011 Player Profile

Stats

Year Age IP BB/9 K/9 ERA FIP x-FIP tERA ERA+
2009 33 177.0 1.83 7.68 3.10 3.65 3.90 3.73
144
2010 34 193.2 2.04 7.71 3.62 4.27 3.95 4.16
113
2011 35 192.2 2.38 7.38 3.97 4.21 4.03 4.24
94
2012 Projections - Age 36 Season



Source
IP BB/9 K/9 ERA FIP


Bill James 200.0 2.25 7.56 3.47 4.14



Marcel 176.0 2.35 7.31 3.73 4.06


PECOTA 165.1 2.29 7.13 3.34 4.19



ZiPS 166.1 2.16 7.41 3.73 4.07

2012 Outlook

Ted Lilly is what he is, a mid-rotation guy who can be reasonably expected to keep you in about 55-65% of the games he starts, his neck problems are something to watch so I will guess an ERA of 3.85 in 172 innings with a whip of about 1.18 and 150 strikeouts.

What is your guess for Lilly in 2012? Be sure to give us ERA, Innings Pitched, and WHIP in the comments, plus anything else you wish to guess.

Thanks to baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com for the statistics.

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