The Dodgers later today will make official the contract extension for Andre Ethier, with a 1 p.m. PDT press conference. There has been plenty of reaction so far to the five-year, $85 million deal - see FanGraphs, Dodger Thoughts, Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness, and Chad Moriyama for more.

But I wanted to see what the next five years might look like for Ethier, who has been a pretty consistent hitter, especially when healthy (his OPS+ the last five years: 132, 132, 133, 121, 134). To find hitters like Ethier in their age 31-35 seasons since 2000 I looked back - using the great Baseball-Reference.com - at outfielders from 1995-2007 with at least 2,000 plate appearances and an OPS+ from 120 to 140.

Sammy Sosa, Jim Edmonds, and Carlos Beltran were the only three of the bunch to improve in their age 31-35 seasons. This group collectively averaged 2,844 plate appearances from age 26-30, and averaged 2,216 PA from ages 31-35, a 22.1% drop, with only three of the 13 players accumulating more PA as they aged. Four of the 13 players didn't even make it to their age-35 season.

There is a fair amount of risk that Ethier could fall off a cliff from a production standpoint, with fellow Dodgers right fielder Shawn Green providing a prime example. But if Ethier does decline, the Dodgers are hoping for more Magglio Ordonez and less Trot Nixon.