The following quotes were not from a TBLA editor or commenter.
Any trade has"to be governed by reason" and "make sense long term."
Building a "great team," "probably can't be done overnight."
Stan Kasten said that in a recent LA Times article and as I read the piece, it dawned on me that despite the many rumors floating out there, the recent proclamations about money not being an issue, there was one glaring fact that would be a problem for the 2012 Dodgers in their pursuit of adding key pieces to their team, a small number of impact prospects.
In another recent article, Kasten said the new ownership group is willing to "take on problem contracts, which is useful" but admitted that swinging a deal for an impact bat will be tough without surrendering top prospects, something "we're not especially deep in."
He also noted that two new rule changes -- one restricting compensation for free agents acquired in a midseason trade, the other the addition of another wild-card team in each league, "which means less teams are sellers" -- will complicate the Dodgers' efforts at the trading deadline.
Chris Jackon (@topeswriter) did a guest piece on Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness during the ASB and concluded "the problem is that after Lee, things drop off fairly quickly within the organization. There is a reason that Stan Kasten and company have been said to be seeking to take on salary relief instead of giving up a lot of prospects that the organization simply does not have.
All of this isn't news to anyone who follows the minor league system, the Dodgers have one prospect ranked in the Top 50, Zach Lee, Chris Reed hasn't come close to pitching 5 innings in AA, Ethan Martin appears to have turned the corner but it is just one year.
But even if those 3 were pitching well, would the Dodgers deal them for a rental player? It sounds like the answer right now is no, they wouldn't.
A few days ago, I picked 3 players, each a potential FA, as players that their current teams would probably not offer the $12M contract that would qualify them for a compensation pick if they refused, those 3 players are starting pitchers, Ryan Dempster and Anibal Sanchez and outfielder Carlos Quentin. If the Cubs, Marlins and Padres are not going to offer them the contract for a possible pick, they should be trying to deal them before the July 31st deadline. It is possible the Padres think they can get Quentin to sign an extension so they might want to take a chance but I think the other two pitchers are available. If I can find other hitters that fit the profile (free agent that isn't going to be offered the qualifying contract, I'll add them to this story).
Anyway, based on that limited analysis, I think the Dodgers, despite media and probable fan pressure, won't end up making a deal. They might pick off someone on waivers but unless someone wants to make them offer they can't refuse, I think the team on this road trip will be the team coming home on July 30th. What do you think?