Taking questions for the podcast last week, I came across one that deserved a deeper examination than a quick answer on a podcast would provide. As the Dodgers continue to try to improve their roster, one reader wondered if they were aiming at the correct target.
@truebluela @jacobburch Pls discuss vastly under-discussed fact that LAD current worst position is 1B (not 2B or LF)
— Eric (@EricEsq503) January 10, 2017
My initial reaction to this question was that this is a nonstarter. Adrian Gonzalez is a fixture in the middle of the Dodgers lineup, is beloved by his teammates and is under contract for two more seasons.
Even if one thinks Gonzalez is a problem for the Dodgers, its not realistic to think he is going anywhere any time soon.
But let’s get back to the question for a moment. Where do the Dodgers stack up at first base relative to the league, and how does that measure up with other positions?
2016 Dodgers by position
Pos | BA/OBP/SLG | wRC+ | NL rank | fWAR | NL rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pos | BA/OBP/SLG | wRC+ | NL rank | fWAR | NL rank |
C | .224/.325/.415 | 103 | 6 | 3.0 | 6 |
1B | .278/.344/.422 | 108 | 8 | 0.9 | 7 |
2B | .259/.321/.402 | 98 | 10 | 2.4 | 9 |
3B | .268/.326/.463 | 113 | 5 | 4.9 | 3 |
SS | .306/.361/.506 | 134 | 1 | 7.7 | 1 |
LF | .240/.316/.386 | 93 | 9 | 1.6 | 8 |
CF | .242/.337/.461 | 116 | 4 | 4.7 | 2 |
RF | .256/.316/.402 | 97 | 11 | 1.1 | 9 |
It was a down year for Gonzalez, no question. He had the worst of his 11 full seasons, hitting .285/.349/.435, a 113 OPS+ and 112 wRC+, with 18 home runs.
There are three issues, one touched upon in a continuation of the original question.
Against LHP
@truebluela @jacobburch Reassure me that Roberts is smart enough to know AGon should never bat 4th or start vs LHP again
— Eric (@EricEsq503) January 10, 2017
Gonzalez hit just .244/.293/.310 against southpaws in 2016, well down from his career .272/.334/.424 mark against them. Gonzalez has a career 108 wRC+ against lefties, though it’s just 85 the last three years thanks to two bad years against southpaws from 2014-2016.
For comparison, Gonzalez had a 130 wRC+ against right-handed batters in 2016, and has a 139 wRC+ against them the last three seasons.
Gonzalez started 36 of the Dodgers’ 46 games against left-handed starting pitchers in 2016, with his 10 non-starts roughly the same as his 11 non-starts in 2015.
It’s one thing to say “sit him” in a vacuum, without considering the alternatives. It’s a little easier to understand why Gonzalez started so much when the other options were either Howie Kendrick (7 starts at first base in 2016) or Rob Segedin (3 starts). It is in this area where the Dodgers have missed a healthy Scott Van Slyke — a career 138 wRC+ against lefties — the most. Perhaps Van Slyke and/or new acquisition Darin Ruf — a career 151 wRC+ against southpaws — can help in this regard in 2017.
The one change we did see in 2016 was Gonzalez moved down to fifth in the lineup at times, 21 times in all, including seven times against lefties. In the playoffs, Gonzalez batted fifth twice and sixth once against lefties, so Dave Roberts wasn’t exactly stubborn in his use of his first baseman.
Power
Gonzalez ended the season with 18 home runs, tied for his lowest total of the last 11 seasons, and his 31 doubles were his fewest since 2009. The resulting isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .150 was his lowest since 44 plate appearances in 2004, his first stint in the big leagues.
We have seen this before, when limited by shoulder issues Gonzalez posted ISOs of .164 in 2012 and .168 in 2013, only to follow that up with .206 in 2014 and .205 in 2015, both healthy and productive seasons in line with his .202 career ISO.
Does Gonzalez have another turnaround in him, heading into his age-35 season? Or did he already have it?
Gonzalez was hitting .264/.337/.372 with only 11 doubles and six home runs in 74 games after June 27, when the Dodgers finished up a four-game series in Pittsburgh. That’s a paltry .108 ISO. Gonzalez benched himself for the final two games of that series, though not because of the back and neck issues he dealt with in the first half of the season, but rather mental fatigue per Andy McCullough of the LA Times:
“I haven’t had any symptoms in three weeks,” Gonzalez said. “And I think that’s why I’m putting so much pressure on myself. Because I’m like ‘I’m finally healthy. I should be doing good.’ You’re just pressing for that, rather than letting it happen.”
After those two straight non-starts, Gonzalez hit .304/.361/.492 with 20 doubles and 12 home runs in 82 games the rest of the season. That .188 ISO was a marked improvement over the first half, and nearly in line with his career numbers.
Grounders
This goes hand in hand with the power numbers, as Gonzalez was hitting the ball on the ground far too often to start 2016. He had a 50.2% ground ball rate before the All-Star break last year, well above his 40.8% career mark.
After the break, Gonzalez had a more normal ground ball rate for him of 41.2%, which corresponded with his offensive turnaround.
Gonzalez was able to do more damage when pulling the ball as the season wore on. On Aug. 14 Ryan Romano of Beyond the Box Score researched Gonzalez’s lack of production when pulling the ball, noting the first baseman had a 62 wRC+ when hitting the ball to right field, well below his 155 career wRC+ in those situations.
That number improved as the season wore on, with Gonzalez ending 2016 with a 108 wRC+ when pulling the ball.
Projections
Here are a few projections for Gonzalez in 2017:
ZiPS: .270/.333/.445, 28 doubles, 21 homers, .326 wOBA
Steamer: .263/.333/.433, 27 doubles, 20 homers, .326 wOBA
Bill James: .276/.348/.449, 35 doubles, 22 homers
Alternatives
How you think Gonzalez might perform in 2017 comes down to whether you think his second-half adjustments were enough, or whether the season as a whole marked the beginning of a steep decline.
Gonzalez has been an iron man, averaging 159 games and 154 starts over the last 11 years, including an average of 157 games and 150 starts in his four full seasons in Los Angeles. I don’t expect that to change in the near future.
But that brings us back to the question itself. Is first base more of an issue than second base of left field?
Second base has received the most attention because the two players who started 141 games at the position are no longer on the team, with Chase Utley still out there as a free agent and Kendrick traded to Philadelphia.
Of course second base is more of a need.
Another reason I’m not terribly concerned about first base is because the Dodgers’ top prospect is Cody Bellinger, and he happens to play an excellent first base (and some outfield too, which may eventually help that left field situation in the short term). Here’s what Ben Badler of Baseball America said about Bellinger on Friday:
He’s No. 8 on my Top 50 list in the Prospect Handbook and I have him ranked as the top first base prospect in baseball. Even though the Dodgers have Adrian Gonzalez, I don’t think they want to trade away one of the truly elite prospects in baseball, especially when Bellinger has the speed and athleticism to play in the outfield. Bellinger is a stellar defender at first base, but I think his ability to play the outfield will be important for him to break into that lineup.
For me, all this means first base really isn’t something that needs to be addressed by the Dodgers. Gonzalez isn’t anywhere close to losing his job, and with good reason, but if things get so bad — think 2015 Jimmy Rollins bad — that Gonzalez does need to be replaced (again, I don’t think Gonzalez is close to this), the replacement is ready and waiting in-house.