True Blue LA: FanPosts

CLUTCH!™: Pulls Through to Win World Series: Overacheiving vs. Godzilla, Mediocrity, Voodoo, and Luck Narated by Screamin' Jay

2009-11-02T20:06:32Z

PART II: WS Epilogue

Even though the Phils kept on out-gritting the Yanks with a World Series OPS of 0.782 (regular season 0.781) and the gritty Phils pitching staff (OPS against regular season 0.781) held the Yanks (who hit 0.839 in the regular season) to 0.725 in the postseason, that New York Yankee CLUTCH!™ came through and trumped all that Grittiness, Superior Offense (and by definition superior pitching), and Lack of Veteran Leadership (Measured by Ks obtained by team hitting).

via photos.upi.com

Although Matsui Godzilla won the MVP with his WHOPPING GODZILLAESQUE 2.027 OPS, 3 HR, 1 BB, and 8 RBIs

via www.stomptokyo.com

playing 48% of the series (compared to Jeeter, 24% if you count defense), it may have been more apt to have given the award to the guy who really put them over the top, Jorge Posada,

via images.sportsbybrooks.com

who stepped up with 5 RBIs with 5 hits, 2BB, 0 HRs and a decidedly non Godzilla-like 0.634 OPS. Jorge, by the authority I’m assuming Major Leauge Baseball has given me but forgot to inform me about, I bestow upon you the 2009 WORLD SERIES CLUTCHY!™ Good job Jorge, you the man.

You deserve this.

via www.latina.com

CLUTCH!™ showed that the New York Yankees PLAY THE GAME THE RIGHT WAY and were the team with the most HEART!

It can be truely said that 2009 world Series was the ultimate example of CLUTCH!™ trumping all other factors. If you ever find yourself argueing with your freinds about whether Grit or CLUTCH!™ is more important, you have to look no further than to pull the 2009 World Series as the ULTIMATE EXAMPLE of CLUTCH!™ trumping Grit.

VOODOO UP MLB VOOODOO UP!

via www.telfordswarehousechester.com

Voodooist Nations

   1. Benin; state religion, and it accounts for the majority of the populous, at 7 million.
   2. Ghana
   3. Togo
   4. Haiti; probably accounts for the most Voodoo practitioners in that region.
   5. Dominican Republic
   6. Puerto Rico
   7. Cuba
   8. Brazil

http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Voodoo

Just sayn’!

Stats that Matter:

2009 World Series Game 4
NY Yanks AB-R-H-RBI-BB-SO
J Posada 3 -0 -1---3----1--2

via rdr.zazzle.com

Part I: Dodger Epilogue

Its no secret what the Dodgers lacked: CLUTCH!™ (™ Major league baseball)

Before we go out and scrap the team for divorce lawyer money, perhaps we should look into keeping these guys and increasing the Voodoo budget.

via www.blog.julians.name

That and teach the pitchers how to throw strikes.

Some random analysis of NLCS vs. World Series Performances. Dodger hitting worse than Yanks, but not by much. Yanks better CLUTCH!™ hitting.

Phils offense superior to everyone but CLUTCH!™ phailing in World Series is the big difference (or it could be said Yankee pitching performance better than Dodger's).

Phils Hitting vs Yanks compared to vs. Dodgers
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hits/IP	Walks/IP	Runs/IP	Clutchyness ((Runs/IP) / OPS)	Clutchyness Ratio (Cl team / Cl weakest team)	OPS Ratio (OPS/ OPS weekest team)	Clutch? (Clutchness Ratio > OPS Ratio)	Clutch Rankings
Phil Hitting Vs Yanks	0.22	0.297	0.447	0.744	0.806	0.417	0.444	0.597	1.063	1.150	No	3
Phil HittingVs. Dodgers	0.231	0.348	0.5	0.848	0.853	0.545	0.829	0.978	1.740	1.311	Yes	1

Phils Pitching vs Yanks compared to vs. Dodgers
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hits/IP	Walks/IP	Runs/IP
Yanks Hitting vs. Phils	0.235	0.311	0.394	0.705	0.886	0.278	0.528	0.749	1.332	1.090	Yes	2
Dodger Hitting vs. Phils	0.232	0.287	0.36	0.647	0.864	0.273	0.364	0.562	1.000	1.000	No	4

Phils Hitting vs Yanks compared to vs. Dodgers
	Clutchyness ((Runs/IP) / OPS)	Clutchyness Ratio (Cl team / Cl weakest team)	OPS Ratio (OPS/ OPS weekest team)	Clutch? (Clutchness Ratio > OPS Ratio)	Clutch Rankings
Phil Hitting Vs Yanks	0.597	1.063	1.150	No	3
Phil HittingVs. Dodgers	0.978	1.740	1.311	Yes	1

Phils Pitching vs Yanks compared to vs. Dodgers

Yanks Hitting vs. Phils	0.749	1.332	1.090	Yes	2
Dodger Hitting vs. Phils	0.562	1.000	1.000	No	4

UPDATES TO INCLUDE MORE DEAD AIR AVOIDANCE PERFORMANCE FACTORS

OK, updates per request.

Heart, Ha! that's easy

Team	Heart (Postseason wins)	Rank
Dodgers	5	3
Phils	9	2
Yanks	11	1

Veteran Leadership

Again, not much of a challenge

	Veteran Leadership (K/IP)	Veteran Leadership Ranking
Phil Hitting Vs Yanks	1.000	2
Phil HittingVs. Dodgers	0.782	3
Yanks Hitting vs. Phils	1.171	1
Dodger Hitting vs. Phils	0.750	4

NYY clearly have the highest veteran leadership. Dodgers, not so much.

Grit takes a little more work.

Grittiness Performance	Regular season OPS	Post-season OPS	Grit (Post-Season OPS / Regular Season OPS)	Gritty (Post Season OPS > Regular Season OPS)	Grit Ranking
Dodgers vs Phils	0.758	0.647	0.854	N	3
Phils vs Dodgers	0.781	0.848	1.086	Y	1
Phils vs Yanks	0.781	0.744	0.953	N	2
Yanks vs Phils	0.839	0.705	0.84	N	4

Phils win grit contest NLCS. World Series, no grit there, must be a pitcher's duel, let's look at Pitching Grit:

Grittiness Performance	Post-season OPS allowed	Regular season opponent's OPS	Grit (Post-Season OPS / Regular Season OPS)	Gritty (Post Season OPS < Regular Season OPS)	Grit Ranking
Phils Pitching vs. Dodgers	0.647	0.758	0.854	Yes	2
Dodger Pitching vs. Phils	0.848	0.781	1.086	No	4
Yanks Pitching vs. Phils	0.744	0.781	0.953	Yes	3
Phils Pitching vs Yanks	0.705	0.839	0.84	Yes	1

Phils are clearly the Grittiest team. Too bad they don't have any Heart.

It's Going to Get Worse Before It Gets Better

2009-11-07T04:01:20Z

Indulge me if you will…

I have zero experience running a pro sports franchise (making me glaringly similar to the McCourts before they bought the Dodgers, but that's not the point of this post), but I do have a bit of experience with divorce.

Like the McCourts, my parents divorced after over 24 years of marriage (25 in their situation). You would hope that a couple of 40-something adults (in the McCourt's case, 50-somethings) would be able to act as civil human beings and keep in mind the feelings of the other family members also affected by this traumatic event. In my parents' situation, this simply didn't factor into anything. My four siblings and I were casualties in the nastiness that went on between my parents, and while we were somewhat spared in the aftermath because we didn't "choose sides", I was truly amazed how some of my uncles (my mom's brothers) were ostracized because they actually acted civilly to my dad; someone whom they had known and come to love for almost 30 years.

My point in this post is not for sympathy, but to hopefully help all of you here at TBLA understand that we have not even begun to see how bad it is going to get. It is embarrassing now; it will turn to ugly before we know it.

For all the crap Frank McCourt has taken among some of the local media (hello, TJ Simers), I believe that he has done an awesome job in his tenure owning the Dodgers. He has invested in a baseball shrine, Dodger Stadium, that was, quite frankly, growing somewhat under disrepair under previous owners (including Peter O’Malley). He re-did parking and got hammered for it but, other than sellouts, it’s actually easier to get in and out of Dodger Stadium than it has been in the past. He improved bathrooms (which were getting scary) and replaced 56,000 seats. The team has improved dramatically under his ownership. He brought in a HOF Manager. I don’t know about you, but before the divorce crap hit the news I was feeling extremely better about the Dodgers and their potential than I was before he got here.

The above paragraph is not a pro-Frank, anti-Jamie statement. My point is we’re in the middle of what I think is a Dodger re-awakening. And I am, or was, damn excited about it.

But today I sit here and wonder what the hell is really going to happen with this team. My beloved Dodgers are on the edge of jumping into the upper tier of baseball, and have the potential to be there for awhile. Unfortunately, given the crap of the past few weeks all that has the potential to crumble before our very eyes.

So what do I see? A few options:

1. Dodgers declared community property and they are forced to sell the team. Pray for Mark Cuban in this scenario. No, he hasn’t won in Dallas but who the hell were the Mavericks before he showed up? Also pray for no Daniel Snyder wannabe.

2. Frank keeps them, but loses his ass in the divorce and has to sell a stake. Peter O’Malley, anybody? Or how about Philip Anschutz? I’m fine with both.

3. Jamie gets them in an upset. Gulp. Sorry, but I don’t see the positive here. I’ve never heard her really say anything that screamed “leader”. Frank may piss me off and come off very whiney sometimes, but he’s a big step up from her.

I’m sure there are other options, but even the ones above spell trouble for my team. We’re 3 months away from pitchers and catchers reporting. And my upgraded optimism about the team of my youth is getting worn down each and every day.

An apology of sorts

2009-11-04T08:01:31Z

I was never a McCourt apologist (or a Colletti collaborator) but I often found myself trying to put myself in their place with respect to how the Dodgers operated their team. I believe the first moment I went one way and most everyone else went somewhere else was the Pierre signing. Not that I agreed with the price and the years but generally my point was that I understood why they made that deal.

I believe for Frank McCourt, the Jason Schmidt and in particular, the Andruw Jones deals were something that changed his tune about the future operations of the ball club. With Schmidt rehabbing (in the second year of a three year/$48M deal) and Jones becoming person non grata with his two year/$40M deal (and full disclosure, I liked both of those deals), Frank McCourt decided to go on the cheap. Which to a certain extent, at that time, I could see why, more than thirty percent of your payroll (along with others like Nomar and Kent being in and out), not playing and worst yet, one player is so unpopular, people appear to boo him no matter what he does. However, I think McCourt let it get personal and that was wrong.

Now as we move towards the off-season and all that mess, I say to all my friends here, I'm sorry that I tried to logically figure out what the Dodgers were doing because as we begin to see behind the curtains, it as if are worst fears may be true.

And while, I certainly believe every person deserves their day in court, I think it was poorly chosen forum to basically take their private lives and shove it in front of the millions of fans who one, don't want to get involved in a family matter but more importantly, don't want that family matter to harm their team.

Last week, I had the pleasure of going to Opening Night for the Clippers with Phil, and we spent a fair amount of time talking about this and in the end, I said that for the fans, it will probably be best if the team is declared community property since that would probably force an outside buyer. However if the analysis of Josh at DodgerDivorce.com is accurate, I would guess that MLB will require the next owner of the Dodgers have to come up with a great deal of the purchase price in cash, if the McCourts owe more than $500M on the notes, they could very well lose whatever equity they have or at least may only split $100M or so, which is not bad but they would also no longer own those nice pieces of property in Boston anymore.

Again, how this affects the team on the field, I don't know, there really isn't much I think they were going to do anyway. But my eyes are wide open and I reading everything with interest. Just remember folks, litigation is not about justice and the truth, its about winning.

My Dodgers Top 200 "Prospect" Ranking

2009-11-06T03:50:15Z

Welcome to the most comprehensive analysis of the Dodgers minor league system. For the next few months, I am going to provide a summary of every player in the Dodgers minor league system who meets the following qualifications: (1) played in the Dodgers minor league system during 2009, or was injured during the entire 2009 season; (2) is still with within the Dodgers organization as of season end; (3) is under 28 years old as of Opening Day 2010; and (4) the player is still considered a prospect by Baseball America Standards, which means that pitchers must have less than 50 innings pitched in the majors, and hitters must have less than 130 at bats in the majors. Like Baseball America, I do not take into account service time, and therefore it is possible that I have included prospects who will not technically be rookies in 2010 (i.e. Brent Leach).

The players are going to be listed by how I rank them as a prospect. Just like last year, the list is almost exactly 200 players, and I will start from #200 (actually, #201 this year), and work my way to who I think is the #1 prospect in the Dodgers system. I’ve included where each prospect played in 2009, how each was acquired by the Dodgers, their height, weight, and age as of the start of the 2010 season, and finally their 2009 combined minor league statistics. Also, since this is my second year completing these rankings, I’ll include my prior year ranking, my review of how accurate I was during my prior year ranking, and obviously a current year discussion about the player. I will generally post 10 players at a time, and will try to post at least once a week. The first 100 players will probably be unknown to most people, but look at it as a way to get to know the Dodgers minor league system even better. Feel free to discuss, comment, and let me know what you think.

**As an FYI, I am also posting this list in the Dodgers section of the Scout.com forum (as I did last year), but given that a lot of people who read True Blue LA do not go to Scout.com, I thought I'd post my list here as well

201. Taiwan Perry, LF (18 games in Arizona League in 2009)

Signed by Dodgers in 2009

6’0”, 185 lbs, 21.75 years old, bats right handed

.050 average, 0 HR’s, 2 RBI’s, 0 SB’s

Prior Year Ranking: N/A

There are two questions that surround Taiwan Perry: where did he come from, and how can anyone be that bad? While I can’t provide too much insight on either of these questions, I can tell you that based on his myspace and twitter accounts, he likes Kim Kardashian, was a Reds fan growing up, and fell in love for the first time at age 16. In regards to baseball, I really don’t know where he came from, and I’m assuming the Dodgers saw him play somewhere and decided to sign him to fill out their rookie league roster. The only thing that was somewhat interesting about him during last season was that I wanted to see how low his average could go. He didn’t get his first hit until August 10th, and by August 25th I believe his average was at.031. But then, he unfortunately got a hit in his 2nd to last game of the season, and ended the year batting .050. Needless to say he has no future with the Dodgers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t return in 2010.

200. Parker Dalton, 3B (55 games in LoA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2007, 24th round

6’1”, 185 lbs, 26.75 years old, bats right handed

.169 average, 1 HR’s, 14 RBI, 1 SB

Prior Year Ranking: 195

I ranked Parker Dalton #195 last season, and I think my assessment of his baseball skills was right on. Dalton had a bad 2008, and an even worse 2009. He has no power, can’t hit for average, and strikes out way too much (27.3% of plate appearances in 2009). However, I can’t help but like Dalton as a person. His teammates call him Pops because they say he is wise beyond his years. In addition, he has overcome melanoma, a very serious type of skin cancer, which is why he started his professional baseball career at such an advanced age. I think that Dalton was more of a player/coach for the Loons during 2009, and I believe that he may have that same role in the future.

199. Esteban Lopez, C (49 games in LoA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2006, 25th round

6’1”, 210 lbs, 25.75 years old, bats right handed

.203 average, 3 HR’s, 22 RBI’s, 1 SB

Prior Year Ranking: 169

Esteban Lopez has always had the reputation as a strong defensive catcher who can’t hit. During his two years at the University of Hawaii, he only made four errors, yet hit .260 as a senior. Unfortunately this trend has continued into his professional career. He hit .243 in 2008, and just .203 in 2009. His horrid average can partially be attributed to his extremely low batting average for balls in play (.245), but I think the bigger problem is that he just can’t hit. Last year I said he had a good build for a catcher, and would probably get a chance to prove himself in HiA. Well, he still has a good catchers body, but he played in LoA instead of HiA, and obviously did nothing to prove himself. Even my #169 ranking last year was probably a little too high, which is why I dropped him to the very bottom this year. At 25 years old, the only reason the Dodgers may keep him in their system is to help out with all the pitchers during Spring Training.

198. Geraldo Martinez, LHP (6 innings in Dominican Summer League in 2009)

Signed by Dodgers 10/23/07

6’0”, 162 lbs, 22 years old

0-2, 9.00 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, 4.50 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: 156

Last year, I talked about how Martinez had a good second half in 2008, and how if he had a good 2009, he’d have a chance to play in the U.S. in 2010. Well, he didn’t hold up his end of the bargain. I’m not sure why Geraldo Martinez was only limited to 6 innings in 2009, but whatever the reason, it really hurt Geraldo’s progress and basically killed any chance he had to make it with the Dodgers. When the 2010 season starts, Geraldo will be a 22 year old with 23 innings of professional experience (all in the DSL). That being said, he may not even warrant another look, so he may not even be back with the team next season.

197. Ryan Arp, C (17 games in Arizona League, 1 game in AAA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2008, 45th round

6’0”, 185 lbs, 24.25 years old, bats right handed

.167 average, 1 HR’s, 8 RBI, 0 SB’s

Prior Year Ranking: 176

Not much has changed for Ryan Arp from 2008 to 2009, so I’m going to repeat some of the information from last year. Arp was the Dodgers very last draft pick in the 2008 draft, and he ended up signing with the team because he had already graduated from Upper Iowa University. It’s actually surprising that he was even drafted at all because he only hit .208 during his senior year, but apparently he is a pretty good defensive catcher. After a respectable showing in the Pioneer Rookie League in 2008, the Dodgers demoted Arp to the Arizona Rookie League for the majority of 2009 where he was awful. Nevertheless, the Dodgers picked Arp when they needed a backup catcher in AAA after AJ Ellis was promoted to the majors. He played in one game in September, and then was probably a reserve on the Isotopes playoff roster. Overall, despite his cameo in AAA, Arp has no chance to make it to the majors, but may continue to help out a few young pitchers along the way by playing solid defense behind the plate.

196. Irvit Mendez, RHP (1.3 innings in Dominican Summer League in 2009)

Signed by Dodgers in 2008

6’6”, 225 lbs, 19.75 years old

0-0, 27.00 ERA, 8.25 WHIP, 13.50 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: 175

In 2008, Irvit Mendez made one appearance in the DSL and allowing 4 runs without getting an out. In 2009, Mendez made three appearances, and again allowed 4 runs, although this time he was able to also get 4 outs. Is that considered that an improvement? I’m not sure, but either way, the biggest problem for Mendez is his control. He walked 5 batters in his one appearance last year, and 7 batters in his 1.3 innings this year. That’s just ridiculous. The two positives about Mendez are his age and his size. He’ll still be 19 years old when the 2010 season starts, and I’m sure he’ll return to the DSL (if he returns at all). As for his size, Mendez amazingly grew from 6’0” to 6’6” in the past year. That growth spurt could have contributed to this control problems, but in the long run, if he learns to use that size to his advantage, he could eventually move up through the system.

195. Tommy Perez, RHP (2 innings in Arizona League in 2009)

Signed by Dodgers 9/7/03

6’4”, 167 lbs, 23.5 years old

0-0, 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 0.00 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: N/A

I didn’t rank Tommy Perez in my top 200 last year because he missed all of 2007 and 2008, so I had thought that he had been released. But alas, he resurfaced in 2009, even though it was only for two brief one inning appearances. Looking back at Tommy’s career, it seems that injuries have been a consistent theme. After pitching 44 innings in his debut in 2004, Perez has only pitched 22 innings since. Not a great track record. However, Perez will be just 23 and a half years old at the start of the 2010 season, and has a good pitching frame at 6’4”. Therefore, if he can somehow find a way to get healthy, Perez may still have a chance to make a splash in the Dodgers minor league system.

194. Garett Green, 3B (49 games in HiA, 17 games in Arizona League in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2008, 30th round

5’11”, 190 lbs, 25 years old

.235 average, 4 HR, 32 RBI’s, 1 SB

Prior Year Ranking: 181

Garett Green had a subpar and injury riddled season in 2009 while playing most of the season at HiA (his time in Arizona was spent rehabbing his injury). As I mentioned last year, he has no chance to make it to the big leagues. Drafted out of San Diego State in 2008, the highlight of his baseball career will probably be that he got to play college ball with Stephen Strasburg. At the end of the day, age is the biggest factor for Garett Green, as he’ll be 25 years old at the start of the 2010 season. If he’s back with the club in 2010, he’ll most likely return to Hi-A.

193. Steve Cilladi, C (14 games in Arizona League, 1 game in HiA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2009, 33rd round

5’9”, 182 lbs, 23 years old, bats right handed

.119 average, 0 HR’s, 3 RBI’s, 0 SB’s

Prior Year Ranking: N/A

Besides the great Taiwan Perry and 18 year old Jorkey Infante, Steve Cilladi had the lowest OPS of any Dodger minor leaguer at .379. It is true that he only played in 15 games, but still, that is just awful. The only reason that he isn’t ranked last is that he will be 23 years old when the 2010 season starts, instead of 24 or 25 like some of the other players. Anyways, to provide a little background on Cilladi, his dad was a former athletic trainer for the Rockies and Cubs, so I’m sure he knows something about conditioning. He played college ball in the NAIA with the Kansas Wesleyan Coyotes, and during his four seasons there, Steve hit .267 with 76 hits, so he wasn’t exactly a masher in college either. In fact, he wasn’t even the full time starting catcher during his Senior year. I’m not sure why the Dodgers spent a pick on draft pick on Cilladi, even if it was a 33rd rounder, but I wish him the best of luck, and I guess he’ll be one of the backup catchers for the Dodgers in the Pioneer League next year.

192. Jose Sanchez, LF (1 game in Dominican Summer League in 2009)

Signed by Dodgers 2/9/07

6’2”, 175 lbs, 19.75 years old, bats right handed

.200 average, 0 HR’s, 0 RBI’s, 0 SB’s

Prior Year Ranking: 151

After playing in 5 DSL games during the 2008 season, Sanchez decided to take even more time off during 2009, and played in only 1 game. Apparently he had some kind of an injury because he was on the DL from mid June until the end of the season, but I have no idea what that injury was. Last year, I actually had some high hopes for Sanchez given his young age, his experience (2009 was actually his 3rd professional season), and his ideal size for an outfielder. After another injury shortened season, however, I don’t see how Jose will be able to make up for so much lost time. He’ll still be just 19 years old to start the 2010 season, but there is no doubt that he’ll be in the DSL yet again, that is if he comes back at all.

191. Nick DeBarr, RHP (29.3 innings in AAA in 2009)

Signed by Dodgers 11/30/08

6’3”, 245 lbs, 26.5 years old

2-0, 7.36 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 7.67 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: N/A

Nick Debarr is an injury prone 26 year old who struggled mightily in his first season in the Dodgers system. Originally drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 14th round of the 2002 draft, DeBarr started his professional career with three mediocre seasons, posting ERA’s of 4.59, 4.15, and 4.91. Unfortunately, he then underwent Tommy John surgery before the 2005 season, and missed the entire year. However, he came back even stronger in 2006 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in HiA, and then continued to move up the ladder in the Ray’s system in 2007 and 2008. Eligible for free agency after the 2008 season, the Dodgers picked up DeBarr as a long shot to help out in the bullpen. Although he put up fairly solid stats in spring training (3.86 ERA in 7 innings), the Dodgers didn’t have enough room on their 25 man roster for him, and he was sent to AAA. There he was pretty horrible, and apparently got hurt in mid July as he didn’t pitch after July 12th. I doubt the Dodgers will re-sign Debarr for 2010, but if they do, he’ll definitely be in AAA again to trying to prove his worth.

Dodger Scout Gary Nickels To Be Honored

2009-11-05T19:33:17Z

Gary Nickels, the man who hired and mentored Logan White in his formative scouting years, and who has been with the Dodgers as a scout since 2003, overseeing the signings of Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, among others, will be inducted into a pair of Halls of Fame this month. Per the Dodgers press release:

Dodger Midwest Scouting Supervisor Gary Nickels will be inducted into the Midwest Scouts Association Hall of Fame on November 7 and the Mid Atlantic Scouts Association Hall of Fame on November 14.

"Gary is the most professional, punctual, organized and thorough baseball man I know," said Dodger Assistant General Manager of Scouting Logan White. "I have had the good fortune to have been hired and mentored by this man when I was a young scout, and he is the epitome of a class act in all facets of life."

The 2009 season is Nickels’ 38th as a scout, and seventh in his current position. Notable current Dodgers drafted under his supervision include Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Scott Elbert, Blake DeWitt, Cory Wade, and A.J. Ellis. His scouting territory includes Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

The Midwest Scouts Association Hall of Fame induction will occur at the Midwest Scouts Association Banquet at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City , Missouri . He will be inducted along with Mike Radcliff of the Minnesota Twins and Bill Bryk of the San Diego Padres during the event’s dinner at 7:00 p.m.

The Mid Atlantic Scouts Association (MASA) Hall of Fame induction will take place at its annual banquet at Ripken Stadium in Aberdeen , Maryland . Nickels’ name will also be added to the Hall of Fame plaque which hangs permanently at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore , Maryland .

Nickels worked for four clubs prior to joining the Dodgers in 2003. From 1999-2002, he served as the San Diego Padres’ Pro Scouting Director following nine years in Baltimore as the Orioles’ Scouting Director (1991-98) and Midwest Supervisor/Crosschecker (1989-90). He also was the Chicago Cubs’ Midwest Region Supervisor from 1982-88 and got his start in baseball as an Administrative Assistant, Scouting (1972-75) and Area Scout (1976-81) for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Is Jaime's Squeeze the New Bartman?

2009-11-04T16:14:03Z

So I’m at Game 1 of the National League Division Series, to watch the Dodgers duke it out with the Cardinals for the right to go on to the National League Championship Series and be embarrassed by the Phillies and their illustrious collection of such former Dodger legends as Shane Victorino, Jason Werth and the immortal Chan "2 Grand Slams In One Inning to Fernando Tatis" Park. I’m camped out near the Dodger dugout before the game with my trusty Canon 40D, when I notice the nice looking fellow loitering near the railing. "Hey!" thinks I, "isn’t that the carpenter guy from Home and Garden Television?" (Okay, so once in awhile I watch something other than sports ).

I snap off several shots of what I believe is the tv tool belt model, whom I later google to identify as Eric Stromer.

Only in later comparing my photos to those on Google Images, I’m not sure it’s Stromer after all. Kind of looks like him, kind of doesn’t.

Then TMZ, hot on the trail of the Fightin’ McCourts, runs these shots of Jaime McCourt and her alleged new love interest. For those of you not following this fracas, the McCourts own the Dodgers. Or at least Jaime McCourt says they do (despite the fact she allegedly signed an agreement saying the team is 100% her husband Frank's). Frank McCourt says he’s the sole owner of the team (despite miles and miles of film and tape over the last several years in which he proclaims Jaime co-owner of the team). Anyway, there’s a major power play going on for ownership and control of the Dodgers, with Frank firing Jaime for among other things, what he alleges was "inappropriate behavior with a subordinate". For those of us who don’t speak corporate that means "boinking the help".

I don’t know if Jaime did or did not do what Frank is accusing her of, and in her defense, the only one in the Dodger organization who was not subordinate to her was Frank, whom apparently she no longer wished to engage in that kind of behavior with, appropriate or otherwise.

Anyway, Dodger fans rightfully fear that the acrimonious dissolution proceeding between the McCourts may leave their beloved team in ruins. Which raises another question. Is Jaime’s new love interest destined to become the Dodgers’ Bartman?

Who is Bartman? As usual I direct your attention to Wikipedia: "In the eighth inning of Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, with Chicago ahead 3-0 and holding a 3 games to 2 lead in the best of 7 series, several spectators attempted to catch a foul ball off the bat of Marlins' second baseman Luis Castillo. One of the fans, Steve Bartman, touched the ball once it crossed into the stands, disrupting a potential catch by Cubs outfielder Moisés Alou. If Alou had caught the ball, it would have been the second out in the inning, and the Cubs would have been just four outs away from winning the National League pennant. Instead, the Cubs relinquished the lead that inning and then lost the game. When they were eliminated in the seventh game the next day, the "Steve Bartman incident" was seen as the turning point of the series...

"Bartman had to be led away from the park under security escort for his own safety as Cubs fans shouted profanities towards him and others threw debris onto the field and towards the exit tunnel from the field. News footage of the game showed him surrounded by security as passersby pelted him with drinks and other debris. Bartman's name, as well as personal information about him, appeared on Major League Baseball's online message boards minutes after the game ended.[11] As many as six police cars gathered outside his home to protect Bartman and his family following the incident.[3] Afterwards, then-Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich suggested that Bartman join a witness protection program, while then-Florida Governor Jeb Bush offered Bartman asylum.[1]"

As previously stated, I only know what I read in the papers. I don’t know for a fact if Jaime McCourt does or does not have a love interest. If she does, I don’t know if the relationship developed before or after she and Frank separated. Even if it was before, she may be rich, she may be very smart, but she’s human. She'd be no different than the endless sea of others who have given in to temptation while technically pledged to another.

But If the McCourt dissolution does in fact wreck the Dodgers, is it possible that Dodger fans may come to view the source of that temptation as the west coast version of Bartman?

So of course I was very curious to see the guy that allegedly came between the McCourts. And when I took a look at the photos on TMZ, it occurred to me that he also resembled the guy that I had photographed standing near the Dodgers dugout. If it wasn’t Eric Stromer, could it be Jaime’s guy?

I went back to my photos for another look. It does look like the guy I photographed could be the same guy seen in the TMZ photos. Or maybe it is Eric Stromer. Or someone else entirely. I need forensics I don’t have to make a definitive call.

These pictures were taken before the separation became public, but if it turns out that this nice looking fellow is in fact Jaime’s new squeeze, then you have to marvel at the balls the two of them had to both be parading around together a few feet from the owner’s box that Jaime shares with Frank during the first game of the National League Division Series. And if the alleged romance does lead to dark days in Dodgerland, is Jaime's squeeze - whomever he might be - our very own Bartman?

World Series Simulation, Game #6

2009-11-03T21:11:09Z

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability. Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible. Not an easy thing to do. The AccuScore iPod finally has its tallies in and they favor the Phillies a little more than Vegas and the Simulator.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

New Layout Comments

2009-11-03T19:30:39Z

As you may have noticed, the site looked a little bit different this morning, as SB Nation and its member blogs have undergone a system-wide visual change.

We would like to know your thoughts on these changes -- good, bad, or indifferent. The tech team at SB Nation is very good, and very responsive to requests. Now is your chance to be heard. Please let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

The McCourts are Poster Children for the Credit Crunch-- Irresponsible Spending, Financed by Fans

2009-11-03T12:27:10Z

Jamie McCourt's divorce filing, with its claims of a net worth of $1.2bn, got many Dodger fans in a frenzy, as it seemed to suggest that the McCourts were rolling in dough while at the same time griping about paying Manny, selling top prospects for relatively paltry sums of cash, and raising ticket prices more than 100% in some sections over a 4 year period.

The truth is actually much worse than that.

According to posts on DodgerDivorce.com, the McCourts are even more heavily leveraged than originally reported. To buy the Dodgers, they used the following financial instruments:

$150 million (Bank of America commercial loan). This piece is pretty straightforward. B of A loaned one or both McCourts $150 million and took a security interest in the club and its real estate. From the bank's perspective, this was a fine deal, because the bank was significantly over-secured. This means that if everything went terribly wrong, there would still be enough value in the collateral to cover the loan.

Current status: taken out. See below.

$125 million (Fox Sports [News Corp.] two-year note) Fox, in a testament to how desperate it was to get out of the Dodgers, financed nearly half of the purchase price itself. In exchange for the $125 million short-term loan, The McCourt Company granted Fox a security interest in the 24 acres of Boston land. If McCourt defaulted on the terms of its note to Fox, Fox could take the Boston property.

Current status: In February of 2006, Fox foreclosed on the property, taking possession in exchange for forgiving the $145 remaining on the note. Evidently, the revenue generated by the property wasn't sufficient to cover the interest on the note. At or near the time of foreclosure, Fox discovered over $58 million in previously unreported obligations owed by the property. In further evidence of Fox's determination to be done with the Dodgers and McCourt, Fox assumed that extra debt.

$75 million (MLB revolving note) This piece is a fairly standard revolving line of credit from MLB's fund for team owners. It is likely to require only interest payments.

Current status: unknown.

$40 million (Fox four-year note) This loan, another concession from Fox, was secured by McCourt personal assets. Presumably, this does not include the family residences, which were supposedly not offered as collateral in the Dodgers purchase.

Current status: Taken out. See below.

$31 million (Fox three-year convertible note) Like the last chunk, another Fox loan secured by McCourt personal assets.

Current status: Taken out. See below.

Under the terms of the agreement, Fox was also obligated to kick in rebates of $50 million over the first two years of the financing, effectively reducing the purchase price to $371 million.

So, if you're counting at home, the above adds up to $421 million in financing...for a $371 million purchase. That, friends, is a little scary.

So we know that the McCourts did not have the financial resources to buy the team with their own money, but instead put their Boston assets as proof of wealth, and then secured bubble-era financing for the team -- they essentially got a 110% mortgage on the Dodgers. In the era of free credit, and given the Dodgers fine cash-flow, this may have looked like a good deal for the banks at the time.

But it didn't end there. Because of the appreciation of assets during the bubble economy, which took off just as the McCourts bought the team, the value of the Dodgers soared. Using this new valuation, the McCourts secured even more loans which they proceeded to spend on themselves, buying properties in Holmby Hills and Malibu now valued at $120m. The profits from the team, along with additional loans taken out against the Dodgers now $750m valuation, were clearly used to help finance the owners' increasingly lavish lifestyle. Read that again-- the money you spent on the Dodgers is what allowed the McCourts to live like Kings, even though their main asset was bought entirely on credit. To say it again, the Dodgers made the McCourts mega-rich, before that they apparently were quite wealthy, but not able to live the lavish lifestyle revealed in court documents.

It's one thing for a rich owner to not spend on his team lest he risk his personal wealth (See George Shinn, Donald Stirling, etc.). It's another thing entirely to become rich because of your team's passionate fans, and then use that newfound wealth to create a lifestyle, built on asset appreciation and cheap credit, that is unsustainable.

The other thing the investigation by DodgerDivorce.com reveals is that there is simply no way that the McCourts will be able to hold onto the Dodgers unless Frank is able to prove sole ownership of the Dodgers. In some ways, that would be an even worse scenario than the team being sold, because McCourt's asset base outside of the Dodgers will be depleted by the divorce, and he will become even more tight-fisted.

There are still more question than answers, such as why MLB would allow the Boston-based McCourts, who were rumored to be judged not financially sound enough to own the Red Sox, to buy the Dodgers; the true value of the McCourts non-Dodger assets, and the actual cash-position of the team, but I think it is safe to say that Dodger fans are in for a difficult road ahead.

Six Degrees of Separation

2009-11-01T20:46:54Z

I used to play that game all the time when I was a kid.

Baseball affords a different way to play, instead of appearing with, you can play six degrees by who was traded for whom. It's kinda neat to see the way in which past Dodgers have turned into current Dodgers.

For example, did you know that there is a direct link between Mike Piazza and Andre Ethier? Well, neither did I.

So Mike Piazza was drafted by the Dodgers in 1988, as legend has it, a favor to Tommy Lasorda. As the story goes, he became all sorts of awesome, winning Rookie of the Year in 1992, Silver Slugger awards, All Star Game appearances. As a kid growing up in the 90s, he was my favorite Dodger.

Then after six seasons, he's traded to the Marlins with Todd Zeile for Gary Sheffield, Charles Johnson, Bobby Bonilla, Manuel Barrios and Jim Eisenreich. Of course this broke my little twelve year old heart, but hey Gary Sheffield. He's an All-Star! He can hit! He can publicly lobby for a trade?

Well in 2002 he got his wish, going to the Braves for Brian Jordan, Odalis Perez, and Andrew Brown. Current A's relief pitcher Andrew Brown was but a minor leaguer then, and two years later he became the Player to be Named Later in a trade for Milton Bradley. As acquiring Milton Bradley always proves to be a mistake no mater what team makes it, eventually he had to go.

That trade came in 2005, as he went to the A's with Antonio Perez for A's minor league prospect...Andre Ethier!

How about that, a direct link between my favorite player as a kid and my favorite player as a young adult.

World Series Simulation, Game #2

2009-10-29T04:46:32Z

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 10:30AM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Burnett	NYA	66.10%	58.48%	58%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator and AccuScore are in pretty good agreement as to the level the Yankees should be favored. Meanwhile, Vegas is once again drinking the Yankees kool-aid. I think the Vegas line is the way it is due to the pressure on the Yankees to win this game. More of a psychological than a logical reason.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 2-1
5	NYA 4-2
6	PHI 4-3
7	PHI 3-2
8	NYA 6-5
9	NYA 3-1
10	PHI 5-4
11	NYA 5-3
12	PHI 4-2
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 4-1
15	NYA 6-4
16	NYA 6-3
17	PHI 2-1
18	PHI 3-1
19	NYA 7-6
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 6-5
22	NYA 5-1
23	PHI 5-2
24	PHI 6-4
25	NYA 6-2
26	NYA 1-0
27	PHI 6-3
28	NYA 6-1
29	NYA 7-4
30	PHI 4-1
31	NYA 4-0
32	NYA 2-0
33	NYA 3-0
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 7-2
36	PHI 7-5
37	NYA 7-3
38	PHI 7-4
39	PHI 7-3
40	PHI 6-2
41	PHI 5-1
42	NYA 7-1
43	PHI 7-6
44	PHI 7-2
45	NYA 8-7
46	NYA 5-0
47	PHI 2-0
48	PHI 6-1
49	NYA 8-3
50	NYA 8-2

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.7	3.978	2.371	1.132	1.349	5.283
A.Burnett	6.7	5.957	3.274	0.864	1.284	4.567

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2822	D.Jeter	.3142
2	S.Victorino	.2857	J.Damon	.3287
3	C.Utley	.3256	M.Teixeira	.3693
4	R.Howard	.3333	A.Rodriguez	.3700
5	J.Werth	.2993	H.Matsui	.3454
6	R.Ibanez	.3090	R.Cano	.3155
7	M.Stairs	.2932	N.Swisher	.3406
8	P.Feliz	.2481	M.Cabrera	.2930
9	C.Ruiz	.2658	J.Molina	.2350

Sorry Juan Guzman - A Look At LCS MVPs

2009-10-26T22:03:25Z

As the Yankees won their 40th pennant last night, it was no surprise that starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia, who was 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA in the series, won the series MVP. Then again, Alex Rodriguez also had a great series, hitting .429/.567/.952, and certainly would have been a worthy choice had he won the ALCS MVP. For what it's worth, Fangraphs had Sabathia with the edge in win probability added (WPA), 0.679 to 0.530 over A-Rod.

At first thought, two wins by a starting pitcher seemed like a lock for series MVP. But just how often has that happened? I went back and looked at all the league championship series since 1985, the first year of the best-of-seven format. There have been 25 times a starting pitcher from the winning team has had two victories in the LCS. He has walked away with the MVP 15 times, which is less than I would have thought. Two of those non-MVPs though lost out to a fellow teammate who also had two wins.

Here's a look at all the starting pitchers from pennant-winning teams with two wins in the LCS in the last 25 years:

Year	Starting Pitcher	MVP?	Comment
1987 ALCS	Bert Blyleven	No	Gary Gaetti hit .300/.348/.650, circling Bert's 4.05 ERA
1988 NLCS	Tim Belcher	No	Orel Hershiser and his one win (1.09 ERA) bested his teammate
1989 ALCS	Dave Stewart	No	Rickey Henderson hit .400/.609/1.000
1990 ALCS	Dave Stewart	Yes
1991 NLCS	Steve Avery	Yes
1991 NLCS	John Smoltz	No	Smoltz was great (1.76 ERA), but teammate Avery was better (0.00 ERA)
1991 ALCS	Jack Morris	No	Kirby Puckett hit .429/.435/.762; Morris had a 4.05 ERA
1992 ALCS	Juan Guzman	No	Guzman's 2.08 ERA was spit on by Roberto Alomar (.423/.464/.692)
1992 NLCS	John Smoltz	Yes
1993 ALCS	Dave Stewart	Yes
1993 ALCS	Juan Guzman	No	Guzman and Stewart each gave up three runs; Stew got one more out
1995 ALCS	Orel Hershiser	Yes
1996 NLCS	John Smoltz	No	Smoltz had a 1.20 ERA in 15 IP, but Javy Lopez hit .542/.607/1.000
1997 NLCS	Livan Hernandez	Yes	No word on whether Eric Gregg was voted a playoff share
1998 ALCS	David Wells	Yes
1998 NLCS	Sterling Hitchcock	Yes	My favorite MVP of the bunch, as he pitched all of 10 innings
2000 ALCS	Orlando Hernandez	No	El Duque's 4.05 ERA was beaten by David Justice's 8 RBI
2000 NLCS	Mike Hampton	Yes
2001 NLCS	Randy Johnson	No	The Unit's 1.12 ERA lost to the grit of ~~David Eckstein~~ Craig Counsell (.381/.381/.524)
2001 ALCS	Andy Pettitte	Yes
2005 NLCS	Roy Oswalt	Yes
2007 ALCS	Josh Beckett	Yes
2008 ALCS	Matt Garza	Yes
2008 NLCS	Cole Hamels	Yes	"C'mon, Cole. Pound the corners. Get him to chase one outside."
2009 ALCS	C.C. Sabathia	Yes

There have been three starting pitchers on losing teams to amass two wins in the LCS. Mike Scott (1986) captured the MVP award, while Freddy Garcia (2000) and Tim Wakefield (2003) did not.

There have been eight relievers since 1985 to get two wins, the most recent being Julian Tavarez for the 2004 Cardinals. Jesse Orosco is the only man, starter or reliever, to get three wins in an LCS, accomplishing the feat for the 1986 Mets. None of the relievers won series MVP.

Don Sutton (1974) and Burt Hooton (1981) join Belcher as the only Dodgers to have two wins in a single NLCS. MVPs were not awarded for the league championship series until 1977. Hooton won the 1981 NLCS MVP.

What's in a name?

2009-10-26T19:47:38Z

Throught the annals of history, many a name has spoken strongly of an athlete's ability to dominate their game. For the sake of it, I am saying that the names I am listing were great because their mama's and papa's bestowed them with the name of a champion!

Baseball names of the past and present that I have admired with big guy names: Boog Powell (Definitely could work in a steel mill shaping steel), Babe Ruth (A classic), Bo Jackson (This guy was compared to a wild boar once), Frank Howard (He sounds mean and big and bad), Ryan Howard (Sounds like the foreman to a wrecking crew), Lance Berkman (I just think he looks like his name. Like a big-barrelled baseball bat), Hack Wilson (Probably took a big hack), Hammerin' Hank Aaron (The guy is referenced in a Chuck Berry song and hammers can do damage) Phil Coke (Only a reliever, but his name offers many comments), Clayton Kershaw (His name sounds like strikeouts to me. And Texas), Nate Mclouth (Almost could be Mclout!)

Notable Mentions: Frank House, George "Ox" Eckhardt. Not great players, but their names gave them the potential.

Feel free to vote on this poll, or add some of your favorite athlete names, any sport is fine. It's all in good fun and what else can we do until spring training?

Poll

Best names in the game today. Suggest better names than these and I will adjust the poll.

Unclutch! Billingsley with RISP

2009-10-23T22:19:00Z

We begin this post with a foreward by Bill Plaschke*, sort of, but then I use numbers below the jump to avoid getting banned from True Blue. So without further adieu, the Poet Laureate of the LA Times:

Call it the devil collecting his due for 2006, to be historical.

Call it bad luck to be positive.

Call it a mental collapse, to be negative.

I call it a glaring hole in his game.

Chad Billingsley should have been an ace, but when the going got tough, he was a joker.

A wild card.

New for us, and new for him.

Well, sort of.

This is a chart of Chad Billingsley's splits with Runners in Scoring Position with 2 outs.

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K%	BB%	HR%	XBH%
2006	.196	.359	.333	.214	12.5%	20.3%	1.6%	6.3%
2007	.211	.348	.316	.268	21.7%	14.5%	1.4%	5.8%
2008	.226	.356	.321	.288	22.8%	12.9%	2.0%	4.0%
2009	.299	.443	.429	.350	15.5%	19.6%	2.1%	6.2%

If you remember anything about Billingsley's 2006 season, you remember that he always seemed to get himself into a lot of trouble before bailing himself out. He was just absurdly lucky with RISP, but after doing it for a while, you began to wonder if it wasn't just luck. Maybe he was just really clutch.

In 2007 and 2008, Billingsley pitched about the same with RISP and 2 outs as he did in other situations, except for a much higher walk rate (but that's understandable). His BABIP was still a bit lower than average, but not as ridiculous and drastic as it was in 2006.

The story for 2009 seems to be that with RISP and 2 outs, Billingsley has had a tough time with that third out. Now, the absurd BABIP says one thing - not only is it well above his career average overall, but it's hugely more than his career average for this situation. Perhaps more bizarrely, his control suffered greatly, reverting him back to 2006 levels where he nearly flipped his walk rate and strikeout rate.

There is not much reason to think that Billingsley is doomed to repeat this performance. For one thing, the absurd BABIP will probably normalize over time to that .270-.280ish level, which would drop the opponent's average by at least .040 (a drop in BABIP in 2009 to .288 would have yielded a .260 opponent's avg). The K-Rate is worrying, but there's no reason to believe he has started a new trend, and I'm guessing he'll be fine come 2010. Billingsley struck out 380 batters over the past two seasons, so it's definitely a skill he has. He'll also be entering his age 25 season (really; we trust his birth certificate to be more authentic than Rafael Furcal's), so he's not exactly over the hill.

But seriously, a .350 opponent's BABIP? Don't expect that to continue unless he's facing Ichiro every time he takes the hill. But when Plaschke suggests trading Billingsley for Roy Halladay, or Jeff Suppan, do not lose the urge to slap him in the face with a giant fish.

* - The fact that fake Plaschke is so easy to write really makes me wonder why he's still a columnist for the Times. If newspapers don't get smarter, they could go out of business....

Super Two Boo Hoo

2009-10-25T00:08:58Z

Per a tweet by John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus, he states that the Super Two cut off for the upcoming season will be 2 years and 139 days. Unlike last year, the Dodgers do not have any candidates for Super Two (last year both Russell Martin and Andre Ethier were Super Two and thus got an additional year of arbitration eligible contract status). This year, it affects two of the Dodgers fellow NL West teams, Arizona and San Francisco.

For Arizona, this cutoff was good news, if it stands, slugging third baseman, Mark Reynolds, will be oh so close but no luck as his service time sits at 2 years, 138 days. Not only does Reynolds lose the extra year, he loses probably 5-6 million dollars since generally, any raise from the minimum to first arbitration salary is no more than in the mid-three million dollar range (Ryan Howard excepted). So that means that Reynolds would only get a really big check starting in year 5 instead of year 4 so that's not a small deal.

For San Francisco, they have known all year that Tim Lincecum would be a Super Two, there issue will be how much do they offer since Lincecum has a chance to be the "Ryan Howard" for pitchers in terms of a Super Two contract. Also closer Brian Wilson will get a nice raise as a Super Two.

Only Adam Jones and Matt Garza will really take advantage of this status, they are others, Carlos Gomez but the real stars of this class remain the Giants and Jones/Garza.

Simulation of World Series Game #1

2009-10-26T05:41:51Z

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Sunday at 9:00PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	C.Lee vs C.Sabathia	NYA	60.78%	56.96%	67%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... My simulator is making the Yankees a slight to moderate favorite to win Game #1 of the World Series. Vegas has their line up now and is more bullish on the Yankees. Kind of hard to go against Cliff Lee by that wide of a margin. AccuScore appears to be a little bit high (pun intended).

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 3-2
2	NYA 2-1
3	NYA 4-3
4	PHI 3-2
5	PHI 2-1
6	NYA 3-1
7	NYA 1-0
8	NYA 5-4
9	PHI 4-3
10	NYA 4-2
11	NYA 2-0
12	PHI 3-1
13	PHI 4-2
14	NYA 4-1
15	PHI 5-4
16	NYA 3-0
17	PHI 5-2
18	NYA 5-3
19	PHI 1-0
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 4-1
22	NYA 5-2
23	NYA 6-5
24	PHI 2-0
25	NYA 5-1
26	NYA 4-0
27	PHI 5-1
28	PHI 6-2
29	PHI 3-0
30	NYA 6-2
31	NYA 6-4
32	NYA 6-1
33	NYA 6-3
34	PHI 6-3
35	PHI 6-5
36	PHI 6-4
37	NYA 5-0
38	PHI 4-0
39	NYA 7-2
40	PHI 6-1
41	NYA 7-1
42	NYA 7-6
43	NYA 6-0
44	PHI 7-2
45	PHI 5-0
46	PHI 7-1
47	NYA 7-3
48	NYA 7-4
49	PHI 6-0
50	PHI 7-3

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
C.Lee	7.1	4.882	1.525	0.669	1.157	3.694
C.Sabathia	7.2	6.331	2.133	0.630	1.086	3.468

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2796	D.Jeter	.3056
2	S.Victorino	.2818	J.Damon	.2865
3	C.Utley	.2940	M.Teixeira	.3364
4	R.Howard	.2835	A.Rodriguez	.3193
5	J.Werth	.3009	J.Posada	.3167
6	R.Ibanez	.2809	H.Matsui	.2917
7	B.Francisco	.2760	R.Cano	.2901
8	P.Feliz	.2654	N.Swisher	.2881
9	C.Ruiz	.2628	M.Cabrera	.2606

General Managers - Will there be anymore openings for 2010?

2009-10-25T16:14:13Z

The worst kept secret in baseball will apparently be made public in the next day or two, the San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting that the Padres will announce tomorrow that Boston Red Sox Assistant GM Jed Hoyer will become the next San Diego Padre GM.

Hoyer has been the leading candidate for some time now, even though last weekend, it was announced that the Padres had interviewed Dodger VP and Assistant GM Kim Ng had also been interviewed.

One of the annual pastimes for Dodger fans is will some other team hire either Kim Ng or Logan White away from the team. One note, for the last 2 years, Ng has interviewed for the Mariner and Padre GM positions, Logan White had one interview with Houston but that was a few years ago.

Now, lets take a look at the rest of baseball and see if Dodger fans can put this worry aside for another year.

NL West

Dodgers - reached agreement with current GM Ned Colletti for unspecified length of time extension.

Giants - Brian Sabean signed 2-year extension (2011)

Rockies - Dan o'Dowd is expected to sign extension

Diamondbacks - Josh Byrnes is signed through 2015

Padres - Jed Hoyer hired in 10/2009

NL Central

Cardinals - John Mozeliak signed through 2010

Cubs - Jim Hendry - signed 4-year extension in 2008

Astros - Ed Wade signed through 2010

Brewers - Doug Melvin signed through 2012

Reds - Walt Jocketty signed through 2011

Pirates - Neal Huntington signed through 2010

NL East

Phillies - Ruben Amaro signed through 2011

Marlins - Larry Beinfest, Michael Hill signed through 2015

Mets - Omar Minaya signed through 2012

Nationals - Mike Rizzo just hired in 8/09

Braves - Frank Wren promoted in 10/07

AL West

Angels - Tony Reagins promoted in 10/07

Athletics - Billy Beane signed through 2014

Mariners - Jack Zduriencik hired prior to 2009 season

Rangers - Jon Daniels signed through 2011

AL Central

Tigers - Dave Dombrowski signed through 2011

Twins - Bill Smith promoted in 10/07

White Sox - Ken Williams has contract that renews every year

Indians - Mark Shapiro signed through 2012

Royals - Dayton Moore signed through 2014

AL East

Yankees - Brian Cashman signed through 2011

Red Sox - Theo Epstein signed extension in 2008 for unknown length of time

Rays - Andrew Friedman promoted in 11/05

Blue Jays - Alex Anthopoulos promoted in 10/07

Orioles - Andy MacPhail hired in June 2007

It would appear that there will be no other openings this fall, for next year, I would look at Houston but there can always be a surprise now and then.

Screw that Whole Scoring Runs and Winning Thing, Phils Just Want Joe Morgan's Approval.

2009-10-23T21:05:47Z

"Eventually I think our power shows up much more than our speed," Manuel said. "A lot of times we win games just because of our power and the fact that we can hit the ball out of the ballpark. We need to be a little bit more consistent, and I'd say we can be a better hitting team."

via nbcsportsmedia3.msnbc.com

How can someone with a manager who seems be completely oblivious to the fact that his offense is firing at 100% capacity and wants to change his approach, because you know, 15 runs is better than 10, be winning? Because the Phils are hitting the crap out of the ball right now, and every time they do, they seem to have two men on, and their offense is at 100% capacity right now, that's why.

Now hitting a lot of line drives, spreading hits around the lineup, loading up the bases, and then scoring a run or two 33% of the time is the Dodger's specialty, so go shove it Manuel, you can't take that away from us. Why are you trying to invade our territory? I'm just wondering if this guy has just watched too many Angels games and not enough Yankee games.

Here's another gem I'll let you dissect, "I've seen our pitching better, and that's the best pitching that we've had since I've been here."

If there ever was an axiom such as "this game is decided on the field" it would be proven to be true over and over again. From what I understand from the Xei simulator, really the most important thing a manager does is put the best 9 players on the field. I'm thinking this must be Manuel's one and only talent. There's a reason "people person" Lasorda lasted so long and successfully and baseball legend Pete Rose failed (and even betted on it).

So what's the method to the Phils magic? Keep on hitting the hell out of the ball.

What's my point? I don't have one, but then again, neither does Manuel and he's just taken his team to two World Series.

Thank you, True Blue LA

2009-10-23T02:19:57Z

After the Dodgers lost yesterday, everyone in the True Blue LA community was somber yet content of how the Dodgers shaped up their 2009 season. Some gave thanks, others shared their most favorite moment of the year. As members shared their most favorite Dodger moment, I was away from True Blue LA hanging out with my girl friend being somber as everyone else was.

Fuck, alright, whatever. It was a good year nonetheless, we'll come back next year...

When the dust cleared and I decided to log into True Blue LA to read all the love the fans shared with everyone else, I was going to share my favorite moment of the year which was the period where Clayton Kershaw matured into an "ace" in the middle of June through July and pretty much was impossible to stop, as he will be in the future. I wrote it with the user name "PHAT JULIO" and waited to write my formal favorite moment with my new user name. Which is the one I am using now.

I was introduced to True Blue LA in July by reading an email my sister sent me with a list of different Dodger blogs. I checked each of them out with True Blue LA being my favorite. Once I joined, I quickly took advantage of the feature to post fan posts and expressed my insight on the Dodgers. But of course my favorite were the game threads. I think it is amazing to talk to Dodger fans, sports fans alike. I was immediately hooked onto the site, so much so that it's the first site I log into when I use my browser. It's the number one source I use to read Dodger news.

Phil's minor league reports, Eric's great insight, member's fan posts, all the funny/witty comments, gee just about everything... True Blue LA is truly the best blog I have ever visited. So I'm writing this to share to everyone my favorite moment of the year, which is joining True Blue LA and sharing all the great moments I've experienced with all the members of this site. I chose my whole name as my new user name because I feel everyone here is a great person to know and I would like to introduce myself as me. Julio Nievas of Whittier.

Thank you True Blue LA, thank you SB Nation, most of all, thank you Phil and Eric

Dodgers vs Phillies, Game #5 Simulation

2009-10-21T05:42:43Z

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Tuesday at 6:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
LAN	PHI	V.Padilla vs C.Hamels	PHI	56.71%	59.88%	55%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The Phillies are moderate favorites to close out the series in five games. AccuScore and Vegas are giving the Phillies a win probability between 55 and 57 percent, while my simulator is singing a more pessimistic tune for the Dodgers, with the Phillies nearly tipping the 60% win probability plateau. I hope the simulator is under estimating the deftness of Vicente Padilla, who was sent to the Dodgers by a devine hand to help save the Dodgers season.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 3-2
2	PHI 4-3
3	PHI 5-4
4	LAN 3-2
5	LAN 4-3
6	PHI 2-1
7	PHI 4-2
8	PHI 6-5
9	LAN 5-4
10	PHI 5-3
11	PHI 3-1
12	PHI 4-1
13	PHI 5-2
14	LAN 4-2
15	LAN 2-1
16	PHI 5-1
17	LAN 5-3
18	PHI 6-3
19	LAN 3-1
20	PHI 6-4
21	PHI 6-2
22	LAN 5-2
23	LAN 6-4
24	LAN 6-5
25	PHI 7-6
26	PHI 6-1
27	PHI 3-0
28	LAN 6-3
29	LAN 4-1
30	PHI 2-0
31	PHI 4-0
32	PHI 1-0
33	PHI 7-4
34	PHI 7-2
35	PHI 7-3
36	LAN 5-1
37	PHI 7-5
38	PHI 5-0
39	LAN 6-2
40	PHI 7-1
41	LAN 7-5
42	LAN 7-3
43	PHI 6-0
44	LAN 7-4
45	PHI 8-3
46	LAN 7-6
47	LAN 3-0
48	PHI 8-2
49	PHI 8-1
50	LAN 7-2

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
V.Padilla	6.5	4.683	2.369	1.055	1.398	4.971
C.Hamels	7.1	6.387	1.604	0.825	1.172	3.588

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	R.Furcal	.3068	J.Rollins	.3401
2	R.Belliard	.3133	S.Victorino	.3468
3	A.Ethier	.3097	C.Utley	.3845
4	M.Ramirez	.3675	R.Howard	.3974
5	M.Kemp	.3382	J.Werth	.3627
6	J.Loney	.2988	R.Ibanez	.3668
7	C.Blake	.3125	P.Feliz	.3019
8	R.Martin	.2981	C.Ruiz	.3081
9	V.Padilla	.1381	C.Hamels	.1510