Back on March 10th we asked for the Manny Ramirez Community Projections and with the suspension they don't mean squat. So we are going to run a contest where you have until the end of the Met series (July 9th) to make your projections for what Manny is going do from the time he showed up on July 3rd until the end of the regular season schedule.

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If you haven't posted your thoughts for the following Dodger projections, take a moment to participate by clicking on the True Blue Community Projections and let us know what you think the future holds for 2009.

Randy Wolf  was last seen pitching for the Dodgers on July 3rd, 2007 after signing a one year deal. Injury woes ended his 1st stint with the Dodgers but he is back for an encore in 2009 as he signs his 3rd straight one year contract. Not exactly what he envisioned after his scintillating stint with the Astro's at the end of 2008 but the Wolfpack at Dodger Stadium will be glad to have him back. He's one of the few pitchers to have pitched at my local high school (El Camino Real) so I've followed his whole career and was glad when we signed him in 2007. Hopefully he will add depth in 2009 but watching him crash in 2007 has left me with my doubts.

James McDonald appears to have won the 5th starter job. Many posters were upset to find out headed into spring training that McDonald was destined for the bullpen but that is why we don't pay attention to what they say but what they do. McDonald was lucky that the group of pitchers vying for the 5th spot was a motley group and he basically won the job by default. I'm not going to show any projections for McDonald because they basically have him in the bullpen. You are on your own.

 Below is what Baseball HQ had to say about Randy Wolf

Randy Wolf - From 2005 through 2007 he had just 240 IP, and then last year he totals 190 IP. That is a big jump, especially for someone who has a history of elbow problems (2004-2006) and reported shoulder soreness in 2007.

Wolf will likely be a solid middle rotation guy. He will be pitching in a friendlier park than Minute Maid, and probably have some more offensive support, but that is not as certain. You can expect strikeouts, double digit wins are likely, and possibly some time on the DL if the change in usage from 2007 to 2008 takes a toll.

Randy Wolf 169/4.54/1.37

James McDonald 113/4.73/1.45

If you haven't posted your thoughts for the following Dodger projections, take a moment to participate by clicking on the True Blue Community Projections and let us know what you think the future holds for 2009.

Many pundits have put us on the top of the West because we signed Manny but the season really hinges on  Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw. As Eric notes in his story about our dynamic duo they are quite special. To our dismay  we have seen in the battle for the 5th spot that  quality starting pitching depth is a problem for this team. They will need healthy and above average productive performances from the best right/lefty home grown combination since Bob Welch/Fernando in 1981 to win the West.

Clayton Kershaw last year had the 15th best season ever for a 20 year old or younger LHP since 1947 using ERA+ as the metric. Here is what the best LH pitchers have done at the age of 21 . For all the heat Dontrille Willis takes these days he was very good in 2003 at the age of 21. Scott Kazmir at the age of 21 in 2005 was the latest to show what can be accomplished. CC Sabatthia threw over 200 inings but only posted a 100 ERA+.

On Tuesday Clayton Kershaw looked as good as we've ever seen him. Mixing his fastball ball with Uncle Charlie he made the Royals look like boys. Not many change ups so the question is, what can he accomplish in 2009 as a two pitch pitcher? Can he go Vida Blue? Fernando? No way, but he might be able to replicate or better what Kazmir did in 2005 when he posted a 116 ERA+ in 186 innings.

Chad Billingsley ascension into our ace has been addressed but lets take one more look at what he's accomplished at the age of 23 in the world of young LA Dodger hurlers. Only Fernando  has ever had two plus 135 ERA+ seasons by the age of 25 and Chad has already done it twice  by the age of 23.  As you can see from this list of the best seasons ever age 25 and under many have done it once but only two of our boys have ever done it  twice. This list includes Fernando(20)(24), Astacio(22),  Welch(21), Valdez(23), Pena(25),  and Singer(25). Pena also has a seasonn of 131 ERA+ ball at the age of 24. Don Drysdale bridged Brooklyn and LA so he would be join Chad and Fernando on this list if we included his age 20 season in Brooklyn in 1957.   Here's to hoping that Chad breaks the tie with Fernando this season and becomes the all - time best Dodger pitcher age 25 and less. Of course whatever he does, Clayton may just do him one better.

So what does the projection world think they will do. Below is what Baseball HQ had to say

Clayton Kershaw - Given age and inexperience, a remarkable debut. A prospect right out of Central Casting: elit Dom, GB tilt, Ctl settled as year went on. Only injuries can keep him from greatness.

Chad Billingsley - As solid a profile as one could want from a 24-yr old starter. Consistent growth in all areas reduces risk; 2H skills spike a great sign. Borderline Ctl is the only real qualm. It's a small one. UP: 20 W, sub-3.00 ERA, Cy.

These projections seem light to me.

Billingsley 213/193/3.09/1.23

Clayton     179/166/3.14/1.24

If you haven't posted your thoughts for the following Dodger projections, take a moment to participate by clicking on the True Blue Community Projections and let us know what you think the future holds for 2009.

Hiroki Kuroda came into 2008 with great fanfare after being signed out of Japan to a three year deal, but Andrew was  less then impressed with the signing at the time. Eric Stephen did some research and as a precursor to his writing for True Blue stepped in at Dodger Thoughts and delivered this write up on the expectations of the 4th starter. Buried at the bottom of that writeup was some information gleaned by commentator Nate Purcell that Kuroda might have very favorable groundball rates and our optimism for Kuroda gained some momentum. This turned out to be true as Kuroda had a 51% groundball rate in 2008.

This was Kuroda's community projection last season

This is what he did. 3.73 / 1.26

These were his splits.

He had a solid April, good May, was crushed in early June and then did not pitch from June 12th until July 2nd. When he came back he pitched two of his best games of the year back to back including a one hitter on July 7th that may have taxed his arm because he followed those two gems with four terrible games in a row capping it off with his worse game of the year on July 28th when he gave up nine hits, and seven runs in only 3 innings. Things were looking bleak for Kuroda and the Dodgers at the time.His ERA had ballooned to 4.40 and the contract was looking very much like Andrew predicted. However something changed. Whatever got into Ethier got into Kuroda at the exact same time and from that point on Kuroda was a marvel giving up one run or less in 6 of his next 11 starts.

He then carried that over into the post season and won both his starts posting a solid 1.46 ERA. As we head into 2009 Kuroda seems to be flying under the radar. Let's see what the pundits think:

HQ Analysis:

3/4/2009 - Kuroda working his way back...Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, LAD) decided against pitching in the WBC because of a lingering sore shoulder. Kuroda still pitched two scoreless innings in his spring training debut on Sunday. Assuming good health, what are Kuroda's prospects for 2009?

2008       IP  ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  H%  S%  BPV
======    === ====  ====  ===  ===  === === ===  ===
April      30 3.82  4.94  2.3  4.7  2.0 31% 75%   36
May        37 2.87  4.82  3.1  5.0  1.6 27% 77%   42
June       14 7.71  4.39  3.9  8.4  2.2 31% 56%   66
July       34 5.24  3.71  1.0  5.0  4.8 33% 55%  108
August     39 2.29  3.31  1.4  6.6  4.8 23% 73%  137
September  27 2.96  4.02  1.6  5.9  3.6 34% 78%   84
----------------------------------------------------
Season    183 3.73  4.14  2.1  5.7  2.8 30% 70%   70

After a long career in Japan, Kuroda's first year in the majors was a success despite some bumps in the road. After a slow start and a DL stint almost saw Kuroda removed from the rotation, Kuroda rebounded and was exceptional the last half of the year. As suggested by the Baseball Forecaster, Kuroda has a healthy margin for error, in part because he induces so many groundballs (51% in 2008). Kuroda is 34 years old, so the injury situation should be monitored, but there's no reason to think Kuroda can't duplicate or improve on last year's numbers now that he has a full major league season under his belt.

My projection: .3.69/1.24/175

With Hudson/Furcal manning the middle infield instead of Kent/Berroa I'm hoping Kuroda's groundball rates translate into an improvement from last year. I'm looking for him to miss some games as I expect he will require some rest at some point in the season. Torre should have learned from watching him pitch for a full season and we probably won't see him hit the 9th inning this year.

What yours?

If you haven't posted your thoughts for the following Dodger projections, take a moment to participate by clicking on the True Blue Community Projections and let us know what you think the future holds for 2009.

Andre exploded after July 31st putting up a .991 OPS in the 2nd half. On July 31st Andre had an OPS of .780 and would end the year with an OPS of of .880. At age 27, Andre should be hitting his career peaks as he goes into camp with RF all his own for the first time since showing up on May 2nd, 2006.

Baseball HQ Analysis:

2/24/2009 -

LIMA Plan Targets: In the Baseball Forecaster, Brandon Kruse points out Andre Ethier's (RF/LF, LA) "terrific growth trends in PX [95-106-129], hr/f [8%-10%-14%], and xBA [.267-.275-.311]." Interestingly, Ethier doesn't hit many FB and has even trended down in that metric (37%-36%-32%), although 2008's low level was dragged down by what appears to be a fluky 26% FB% in the second half. However, Ethier does hit a large number of LD, 22%-18%-27% over the past three seasons -- again, the 2008 LD rate was pumped up by a 30% LD% in the second half, which should regress. Still, as pointed out in regards to David Wright, HR can come off LD in addition to FB, so don't discount Ethier just because of his low FB%. He has excellent BPIs and is at the magical age 27; invest.

My projection: .298/.367.493

What yours?

If you haven't posted your thoughts for the following Dodger projections, take a moment to participate by clicking on the True Blue Community Projections and let us know what you think the future holds for 2009.

Next up is the player who many consider to have the highest upside of any homegrown Dodger.  Here is the latest analysis from Baseball HQ on Matt Kemp

3/3/2009 - Kemp signs 1-year deal with LA... The Dodgers came to terms with OF’er Matt Kemp on Monday. Kemp is coming off his first full season with the Dodgers, a solid season but perhaps not as spectacular as some had hoped. Going into the 2009 season Kemp is expected to continue his recent growth, and increase his power numbers to put them on par with his speed production. The question is are there reasons to believe that growth will occur, and how much can we expect this year.

Year  AB  R  HR RBI SB  BA Slg bb% ct%  PX xBA 
==== === === == === == === === === === === ===
2006 154  30  7  23  6 253 448  6% 66% 138 246 
2007 292  47 10  42 10 342 521  5% 77% 109 258 
2008 606  93 18  76 35 290 459  7% 75% 119 275

There are minor, positive signs in his skills set. His PX number did increase from 2007 to 2008, even if it didn’t immediately translate into a higher Slg% and more HR’s given the doubling of AB’s. Also, even though his ct% dropped slightly, his 1H/2H splits were 71%/78%, which suggests that he was adapting well in his first full season and the potential for further growth exists. And all of this occurred while he was able to take more advantage of his speed numbers, making him a serious threat in all of the hitting categories. Sometimes we see those with the potential for more power ignore the speed side of their skills in their effort to produce more HR’s and RBI’s. That does not appear to be the case with Kemp. Expect continued growth at minimum, and the potential for a breakout season definitely exists here.

My Projection - 304/349/501 - 26 Home Runs

If you haven't posted your thoughts for the following Dodger projections, take a moment to participate by clicking on the True Blue Community Projections and let us know what you think the future holds for 2009.

Next up is out newest addition Manny Ramirez. Also add the number of games you expect him to be able to start in LF. As a little guideline here are the left fielders older then 36  who posted an OPS+ > 100 before this decade.

Here is the latest analysis from Baseball HQ on our Manny

Latest Player Analysis :

3/5/2009 - Manny Ramirez and Dodgers finally seal the deal... After nearly an entire offseason full of speculation and negotiation, Manny Ramirez (OF, LAD) is a Dodger. He signed a 2-year deal on Wednesday, and is expected in camp on Thursday. Ramirez gave the Dodger offense a much-needed boost late last season, and should do the same this year:

Year   AB  HR   Avg   xBA   OPS   bb%  ct%  h%    G/L/F    PX  hr/f 
===== ===  ==  ====  ====  =====  ===  ===  ==  ========  ===  ====
2005  554  45  .292  .319   .976   13   79  30  37/24/39  185   27
2006  449  35  .321  .306  1.064   18   77  35  36/22/42  181   24
2007  483  20  .296  .284   .879   13   81  33  38/22/41  129   13
08 1H 290  16  .286  .274   .883   12   76  33  40/19/41  149   18
08 2H 262  21  .382  .341  1.178   16   80  42  36/28/36  197   28    

Ramirez was a good hitter in 2007 and the first half of 2008, but it wasn't what we were used to seeing from him. Both his PX and home run per fly ball rate had dropped significantly from his typical level. Then Ramirez exploded during the second half of last season. A 42 percent hit rate shows that he was pretty fortunate during that time, but an elevated hit rate should be expected when hitting that many line drives. Ramirez's elite power also returned during the second half.

Ramirez has been slowed by nagging injuries each of the last 2 seasons, which has likely been the main reason that his numbers had dropped a bit. At his age, it isn't likely that they will completely go away. That, combined with his attitude, make it difficult to project his performance for this season. That being said, his late season performance shows the skills that he still possesses, and what he can do if he is healthy and focused.

My Projection - 321/434/562 - 131 games in left field

If you haven't posted your thoughts for the following Dodger projections, take a moment to participate by clicking on the True Blue Community Projections and let us know what you think the future holds for 2009.

Next up is Russell Martin. At the all-star break last year he already seemed destined to join the great Los Angeles backstop tradition,  but his power deserted him (336 Slug%), and for some of us it also looked like his defense dropped in the 2nd half thus marring his all-star season. As he enters camp he's funny, happy, and getting laid while talking about maturing.  Last year I evoked the MVP word when talking about Martin but was premature. Maybe I was just a year to early or maybe the best has already come and gone. He wouldn't be the first backstop to see his best years before the age of 26.

How about those THT and BP projections. Who peeked at the other? They both look remarkably like the 1st half splits for Russ in 2008.

 288/391/411