Draft
Dodgers 2011 Draft Review and Ranking
The 2011 signing deadline was yesterday, so it's time to evaluate the Dodgers draft as a whole. Overall the Dodgers did a good job of signing the majority of their draftees - they signed 9 of their top 10 picks, 17 of their top 20, and 30 of 50 overall - but they still had a very underwhelming draft in terms of talent. There isn't that one guy to get really excited about, although our top pick Chris Reed could turn into a useful big league player one day. We gave out very few over slot bonuses, and will probably rank in the bottom 3 of bonus money given out overall. That being said, I wanted to review our draft a little differently this year by doing a quick/rough ranking of the players we signed, and also talk about a few of the unsigned players. Some of the info I'm providing on the players will be a repeat of what I wrote about them in my original draft post, but I figured it'd be useful to have everything in one place.
Signed Players
1) Chris Reed (1st round, LHP Stanford) - Reed wasn't the 16th best overall talent in this draft, but he seems to have the most potential of all the Dodger draftees. The organization will use him as a starter, and he figures to move quickly through the system. He's supposed to begin his career at Rancho Cucamonga very soon. The lefty can touch 96 mph and has 3 quality pitches (fastball, power slider, and above-average changeup).
2) Ryan O'Sullivan (4th round, Oklahoma City University) - Ryan is the brother of current Royal Sean O'Sullivan, and has not pitched in college of the last two seasons due to an elbow issue and then academic reasons. However he throws in the low 90's (up to 94), and has a hard curveball. Baseball America actually says that he has "the same command but better stuff than his older brother". I was worried that he wouldn't sign, and I'm glad he did because I while his ceiling might not be all that high, I'd say he has a decent chance to one day make it to the big leagues.
3) Alex Santana (2nd round, 3B, Mariner HS) - The son of Rafael Santana, Alex is a 6'4" 3rd baseman who has strong wrists, is a good line drive hitter, and has good speed. He is extremely young and very raw, which shows in his strikeout numbers in the Arizona League. He's hitting .245 with 1 homer for the Arizona Dodgers, but it's hard to even look at those numbers given his age. I like his ceiling and could be a solid major leaguer one day, but he could just as easily turn into just another organizational player.
4) Scott McGough (5th round, RHP, University of Oregon) - McGough, son of a former Indian farmhand, has done nothing but impress since signing with the Dodgers. He is an outstanding athlete and is a bullpen arm with two potential plus pitches. He had a mid 90's fastball that can hit 97 mph, and a wipeout slider that sits in the low 80's. The Dodgers seems to be working him pretty hard despite his college workload, so that's a bit concerning.
5) Pratt Maynard (3rd round, C, NC State) - Maynard has struggled since turning pro, but I think he turns it around next year. Remember Blake Smith's first professional season? Maynard has good plate discipline. He hit .323 this year, but he lost a lot of his power this season with the switch to the new bats in college and projects as more of a gap hitter in the pros. Even still I think he could eventually be a big league starter, although it's highly unlikely he'll ever be a star.
6) O'Koyea Dickson (12th round, 1B, Sonoma St. University) - Dickson is a somewhat compact power-hitting 1st baseman who transferred to Sonoma State for his junior season. Dickson's 11 homers in 2011 were more than double that of any teammate, and he also hit .341 for the Seawolves. Since signing, Dickson has done nothing but hit and so far has been the best player of the 2011 class. Hopefully that success will continue as he moves up through the system.
7) Rick Anton (8th round, LHP, Utah) - This lefty is a senior at Utah, and according to Baseball America "He pitches with a fringy fastball but has touched 92 mph as late as the fourth inning, with a four-pitch mix. In addition to the fastball, he throws a changeup, a curveball and a cutter that he added this year." Since turning pro, Anton has been great and has a 1.64 ERA through 33 innings split between the Pioneer League and Midwest League.
8) Justin Boudreaux (14th round, SS, Southeastern Louisiana University) - Bourdeaux has a good combination of power and speed, although neither tool has really been on display since turning pro. Baseball America had a rather glowing report on him, however, and if he can stick at shortstop then he has the chance to be a decent Dodger prospect.
9) Scott Barlow (6th round, RHP, Golden Valley HS) - I'm usually a big fan of high school arms, but I'm not over excited about Barlow. One report has his fastball in the high 80's, with a change and a slow breaking ball as his secondary pitches. He seems to be a bit wild, but he also struck out quite a few high school hitters as demonstrated by a 17 K game during his junior season. He'll probably make a couple of appearances in the Arizona League in the upcoming weeks.
10) Jesus Valdez (17th round, 3B/RHP, Oxnard CC) - Valdez is an interesting player because he was mostly a pitcher in college, but has been used as a 3rd baseman with the Dodgers thus far. He's actually put up decent offensive numbers so far in the Arizona League, although he hasn't played since July 25th. He's only 19 years old, and is one of the wildcards in this draft.
More after the jump...
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Remaining Unsigned Picks from Dodgers 2011 Draft
The 2011 Draft signing deadline is just 10 days away, so it's time to take a look at the Dodgers remaining unsigned picks and the likelihood of each one inking a deal.
Round 1: Chris Reed, LHP, Stanford - There hasn't been much news on the Chris Reed negotiations, but I'm betting that this deal gets done at the deadline. Reed has nowhere to go but down if he declines to sign, and the Dodgers would get killed if they fail to sign their 1st round pick after everything that has happened this year. Slot for the #16 pick is $1,512,000, and I say he signs for an even $1.5M.
Round 4: Ryan O'Sullivan, RHP, Oklahoma City University - The 20 year old brother of current Royal Sean O'Sullivan has not pitched in college for the last two seasons due to an elbow issue and then academic reasons, but I still thought he would have signed by now. I'm getting more and more skeptical as every day passes by because a good year in 2012 could probably move him into the top 3 rounds because when healthy, he is supposed to have better stuff than his brother. If I had to guess right now, I would say that he doesn't sign.
Round 6: Scott Barlow, RHP, Golden Valley HS - Barlow is playing on a summer team that is playing in the PONY World Series, and in a recent article I found it says that Barlow is "a Dodgers draft pick who will play for Fresno State". That doesn't necessarily mean he won't sign, but at this point it doesn't look too good. Barlow was only throwing in the upper 80's during high school and was a bit wild, so he'd be a bit of a project, but I still would like to get at least one high school arm in our system from this draft.
Round 9: Tyler Ogle, C, University of Oklahoma - I'm surprised the college junior hasn't signed yet because he had a solid season in 2011, and if he returns for his senior year he loses a lot of leverage. I did find this posted on a message board, however, "Hopefully the Dodgers can convince him to sign over pressure from his coaches and a girlfriend to come back to OU". Not sure how strong that pressure is, but I still say he eventually signs.
Round 10: Jamal Moore, LHP, Westchester HS - I can't find any news on Jamal "Baseball" Moore, but I'm betting that he signs at the deadline for a slightly above slot amount. I can't find any college commitment for him, and he seems antsy to get his baseball career started.
Round 13: David Palladino, RHP, Emerson HS - Palladino is a big 6'9" righty who was a great high school pitcher in New Jersey, and I really hoped the Dodgers would be able to sign him. However, reports are that he has already turned down an offer from the Dodgers and that he is going to attend the University of South Carolina Upstate in the fall. "As of right now, I'm going to college. I want to go to college and have the college experience. Then I'll have at least three more years [of] maturity, physically and mentally." Seems very unlikely the Dodgers will lure him away from his commitment.
Round 20: Vince Spiker, RHP, Johnson County CC - I can't find anything about which way Spiker is leaning, but I'm hoping he signs with the Dodgers. I've read he can get his fastball up to 96 mph and that he has a hard curve. I also can't find where he 4-year college commitment lies, so that is probably a good sign for the Dodgers.
Round 21: Zak Qualls, LHP, Rancho HS - I doubt that this high schooler signs, as he said after the draft that he plans on fulfilling his commitment to UNLV. “To be on the field with eight of your best friends, that’s going to be great. People are starting to realize that UNLV is going to be a good program.” He currently only sits in the mid 80's and his secondary stuff is still developing, so going to college will probably be best for him anyways.
Round 22: Kyle Conwell, OF, Bellevue CC - Conwell said he knew he was going to get drafted, but expected to go in the top 10 rounds. He hit .397 for Bellevue CC in 2011 with 4 homers and 38 RBI's, and led his team with a .491 OB%. Whether he signs or not depends on the offer he gets, and his quote in mid June was "I have options...I haven't gotten an offer yet. I'm waiting for that. I've got a full ride to Abilene Christian University in Texas, so, it's got to meet my financial needs for school and just after that. If it's not what I want, then I'm just going to go to school."
Round 25: Travis Burnside, OF, Spartanburg Methodist College - Right after the draft Burnside said that he was hoping to be a top 15 round pick, but was still excited to be drafted at all. He also said "I talked with their representatives today and they said they will call me in the next day or so. Then it will be time to sign or negotiate. I want to get going as soon as possible.” That quote was from June 8th, so obviously negotiations are going a little slower than he thought. He still has two years of college eligibility left, so it's almost a coin flip as to whether or not he will sign.
Round 27: Taylor Garrison, RHP, Fresno State - Right after the draft, Garrison said that he has every intention of signing so I'm surprised that he hasn't inked a deal yet. He was a college junior so he doesn't have much leverage, but he might sign for slightly more than your average 27th round pick because he threw 34 innings for the Bulldogs in 2011 and struck out 42 with a 1.32 ERA while walking just 10 batters all year.
Round 29: Joe Robinson, RHP, UNLV - I couldn't find much info on Robinson, but I'm guessing that he'll head back to college to work on some things as he only struck out 35 batters in 90 innings for UNLV in 2011.
Round 30: Adam McConnell, SS, Richmond University - McConnell missed the entire 2011 college season due to an upper leg injury, and with two years of eligibility left he'll most likely try and improve his draft stock with a healthy year in 2012.
Round 31+ :If a late round pick hasn't signed by now, they probably aren't going to. In looking through the 11 names that make up this group, it looks to me like only 41st rounder Casey Thomas (high school 2nd baseman from Arizona) is a possibility to sign because his dad is a scout in the Dodgers system and Thomas didn't have any college commitments lined up at the time of the draft.
Dodgers 2011 MLB Draft Summary: Day 2 Recap
Day 2 of the 2011 MLB draft consisted of rounds 2 - 30, and here is a quick rundown of who the Dodgers selected. This post should also be used as the open thread for Day 3 of the draft, which will last until round 50 today. Remember, Matt Magill was a 31st round pick in 2008, and Shawn Tolleson was a 30th round pick just 1 year ago.
Round 2: Alex Santana, 3B, Mariner HS - The son of Rafael Santana, Alex is a 6'4" 3rd baseman who also spent some time on the mound. He has strong wrists and is a good line drive hitter, and has good speed. He also has a good arm at 3rd base, which makes sense given that he can throw 91 mph as a pitcher. During his senior year of high school, he hit .402 with 4 homers.
Round 3: Pratt Maynard, C, NC State - Ranked as the #187 prospect in the draft by Baseball America, Maynard has good plate discipline. He hit .323 this year, but he lost a lot of his power this season with the switch to the new bats in college and projects as more of a gap hitter in the pros. There are doubts that he'll be able to stay behind the plate, which would definitely hurt his value.
Round 4: Ryan O'Sullivan, RHP, Oklahoma City University - Ryan is the brother of current Royal Sean O'Sullivan, and has not pitched in college of the last two seasons due to an elbow issue and then academic reasons. However he throws in the low 90's (up to 94), and has a hard curveball. Baseball America actually says that he has "the same command but better stuff than his older brother".
Round 5: Scott McGough, RHP, University of Oregon - McGough, son of a former Indian farmhand, was ranked #126 by Baseball America. He is an outstanding athlete and is a bullpen arm with two potential plus pitches. He had a mid 90's fastball that can hit 97 mph, and a wipeout slider that sits in the low 80's.
Round 6: Scott Barlow, RHP, Golden Valley HS (CA) - The first high school pitched selected by the Dodgers in this draft, the 6'3" Barlow is is committed to play his college ball at Fresno State. He seems to be a bit wild, but he also struck out quite a few high school hitters as demonstrated by a 17 K game during his junior season. One report has his fastball in the high 80's, with a change up and a slow breaking ball as his secondary pitches.
Round 7: Scott Woodward, 3B, Coastal Carolina - Scott is a speedy lefty that has also played outfield in his career. He tends to swing and miss quite a bit, but hit .342 this season with 4 homers and 31 SB's.
Round 8: Rick Anton, LHP, Utah - This lefty is a senior at Utah, and according to Baseball America "He pitches with a fringy fastball but has touched 92 mph as late as the fourth inning, with a four-pitch mix. In addition to the fastball, he throws a changeup, a curveball and a cutter that he added this year." He's only 6'0", but had a 2.52 ERA through 15 starts (100 innings) in 2011 with 85 K's (vs 25 walks).
Round 9: Tyler Ogle, C, University of Oklahoma - Ogle took over the catching duties from JT Wise at Oklahoma, and is a similar offensive minded catcher. Ogle is a good right handed power hitter and makes consistent contact. He hit .343 this season with homers and 15 doubles in 201 at bats. On defense, his arm strength is described as fringy.
Round 10: Jamal Moore, LHP, Westchester HS - Moore has pitched at Dodger Stadium before...in the Division II title game in 2010. He threw a complete game that day, and during his junior season as a whole he went 10 - 1 with a 2.07 ERA. It appears that he didn't pitch much during his senior season. He has a self proclaimed velocity in the high 80's.
Round 11: Scott Wingo, SS, University South Carolina - Wingo is the team captain for the Gamecocks, who are still in the NCAA college baseball playoffs and face Connecticut in a 3 game series this weekend. The senior infielder hit .335 with 4 homers, and was named to the SEC All-Defensive team. Wingo played quite a bit of second base in college, but the Dodgers announced him as a shortstop. He's a hard working player, but he wasn't drafted out of high school or after his junior season last year. Finally, he is the answer to the trivia question of "who scored the final run in the history of Rosenblatt Stadium"
Round 12: O'Koyea Dickson, 1B, Sonoma St. University - Dickson is a somewhat compact power-hitting 1st baseman who transfered to Sonoma State for his junior season. Dickson's 11 homers in 2011 were more than double that of any teammate, and he also hit .341 for the Seawolves. Hopefully he'll continue to hit for power in the minors because that is where his value lies.
Round 13: David Palladino, RHP, Emerson HS (NJ) - Palladino is a huge 6'9" right hander and was one of the best pitchers in New Jersey this past year. He went 10 and 1 with 3 no-hitters and a 1.08 ERA. Also, I know this sounds like a typo but Palladino actually allowed just 19 hits in 72 innings this season while striking out 131. The reason I know it's not a typo is because earlier in the year that same blog talked about how he had only given up 8 hits through 44 innings, and had an 18 strikeout game. He gets his fastball up to 93 mph, but I'm not sure about his secondary stuff.
Round 14: Justin Boudreaux, SS, Southeastern Lousiana University - I'll let Baseball America take this one: "Boudreaux has held down a starting job for three seasons for Southeastern Louisiana, moving down into the middle of the lineup. He's traded swings and misses for power and has produced, with 21 home runs the last two seasons and 2011 numbers on par with those of 2010 despite the less-lively bats (.932 OPS this season, .970 in 2010)....Boudreaux has both power and speed, as he's a 6.6-second runner over 60 yards and has the bat speed to catch up to good fastballs. His swings and misses tend to come when he doesn't adjust to breaking balls, and at times he's too stubborn for his own good, being slow to adjust to pitchers' gameplans. He needs to shorten up better with two strikes and protect the plate when behind in the count. Defensively, Boudreaux is a solid college shortstop who has pressed in his draft year, committing 27 errors. Some scouts like him better at second base, as he has enough arm strength to turn the double play. Others aren't confident in his athletic ability to stay in the middle infield and see him as a better fit at third base, where his bat may not play as well. Boudreaux has enough power to push his way into the sixth-to-10th-round range."
Round 15: Craig Stem, RHP, Traveca Nazarene University - Stem is a 6'5" righty who had a solid season for the TNU Trojans after spending two years at Western Kentucky. He was used as a starting pitcher in 2011 and threw 5 complete games in 2011, including 1 shutout. His ERA was 3.93 through 73.1 innings, and he struck out 75 while opposing batters hit .222 against him. I'm not sure about his stuff, but from reading a few articles I get the feeling that he throws in the low 90's.
Round 16: Jeff Schaus, OF, Clemson - Back in February of this year Schaus was actually ranked by Baseball America as the 2nd best senior draft prospect...although that doesn't mean much because almost all good draft prospects leave before their senior year. He had been drafted twice before, in the 35th round out of high school and in the 27th round last year, but declined to sign each time. According to Baseball America's pre-draft report, "Schaus has limited athleticism and should be a solid organization player. He's a smart, polished hitter who knows the strike zone and should have power. After hitting 28 homers the previous two seasons, though, he had none in 2011". I'm not too excited about him after reading this report.
Round 17: Jesus Valdez, 3B/RHP, Oxnard CC - Valdez was an unsigned 5th round pick by the Angles from 2010, so getting him in the 17th round sounds good to me. While he didn't have an overly impressive season at Oxnard, he was still ranked as Baseball America's #195th draft prospect and was expected to again be a 5th round pick. In addition, it sounds like he's improved many of his pitches, including a low 90's fastball that hits 94 and a solid slider. He has a loose and projectable frame, however he currently profiles as a reliever at the next level. All that being said, however, the Dodgers apparently drafted Valdez as a 3rd baseman and I don't know anything about his hitting ability.
Round 18: Chris O'Brien, C, Wichita State - The son of 15 year MLB veteran Charlie O'Brien was a below average player during his first 2 seasons at Wichita State, but then really turned things around as a junior. In 2011 O'Brien hit .410 with 10 homers, 25 doubles, and 70 RBI's and was named as a semi-finalist for the Golden Spikes award. What was most impressive, however, was his 40 to 18 walk to strikeout ratio. His defense isn't great, but hopefully it's good enough for him to stay behind the plate as a professional.
Round 19: Garrett Bush, RHP, Seminole State JC - Bush is a 6'5" righty who spent his first few years of college at Auburn. He is relatively new to pitching and has a projectable frame, but Baseball America calls his stuff fringy at best.
Round 20: Vince Spiker, RHP, Johnson County CC - Spiker is 6'3", and sounds like a decent mid round pick. Baseball America says he is well-rounded pitcher, although he's had various injuries over the past two years. From what I've read he throws in the mid to low 90's and has a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. Even with 4 pitches, however, he projects more of a reliever because he currently lacks consistent control.
Round 21: Zak Qualls, LHP, Rancho HS (NV) - Qualls is a skinny 6'3" righty that has a lot of projection in his frame, but he currently only sits in the mid 80's. He does have a developing slider, changeup, and curveball, but he might be better suited going to college to build up his velocity. He's committed to UNLV.
Round 22: Kyle Conwell, OF, Bellevue CC - Conwell hit .397 for Bellevue CC in 2011 with 4 homers and 38 RBI's, and led his team with a .491 OB%. He's committed to Abilene Christian next season, so he could be relatively easy to sign. After the draft, Conwell's coach said "Kyle has a knack for hitting with very good power. He is a great competitor and someone that never accepts less than his best. We are extremely excited for Kyle and wish him the very best next season in professional baseball, if that is what he chooses."
Round 23: Garrett Bolt, RHP, Western Illinois University - Bolt was outstanding in 2010 at Muskegon CC (1.19 ERA, 35 K's in 29.1 innings), but things didn't go so well after transfering in 2011. With Western Illinois Bold threw 17 innings and had an 11.65 ERA with just 10 K's.
Round 24: Matt Shelton, RHP, Sam Houston St University - Shelton is a 6'5" senior who posted a 2.87 ERA in 2011 through 94 innings. He had a 89 K's, and opposing batters hit .237 against him. He was a first-team All-Southland selection this season.
Round 25: Travis Burnside, OF, Spartanburg Methodist College - Burnside had been a 2009 Dodger selection in the 48th round, and so far he is the only 2011 draftee that had been previously picked by the Dodgers. Here's what I wrote about Burnside in my draft preview "Burnside chose to attend Spartanbug Methodist Junior College instead of signing with the Dodgers, so he is eligible again for the draft this year. He has decent speed and power, and hit .335 in 2011, so it wouldn't surprise me if he was selected again by the Dodgers this year."
Round 26: Freddie Cabrera, RHP, Central Methodist University - Cabrera played at NAIA school Central Methodist and went 6 and 4 with a 3.06 ERA through 82.1 innings. The only other thing I know about him is that he is from Puerto Rico.
Round 27: Taylor Garrison, RHP, Fresno State - At 5'11" Garrison isn't a big pitcher, but he posted solid stats out of the Bulldogs' bullpen in 2011. He threw 34 innings and struck out 42 with a 1.32 ERA. He also only walked 10 batters all year.
Round 28: Joseph Winker, OF, Mercer University - According to the Mercer University website "Winker was a four-year starter for Mercer and has proven himself as one of the best hitters in the A-Sun Conference. A Freshman All-American in 2008, the Orlando, Fla. native concluded his career with a breakout senior season that led to an Atlantic Sun All-Conference second team selection. Winker hit .359 this season and ranked third in the A-Sun with a .630 slugging percentage, tied for seventh with 13 home runs and ninth in the league with a .448 on-base percentage."
Round 29: Joe Robinson, RHP, UNLV - Robinson was selected in the 32nd round last year by the Orioles after playing ball with Bryce Harper, but chose to go to UNLV instead. This year for the Rebels he made 15 starts and threw 90 innings, but he had an ERA of 4.88 and only struck out 35 hitters.
Round 30: Adam McConnell, SS, Richmond University - McConnell missed the entire 2011 season due to an upper leg injury, but the Dodgers drafted him anyways. The shortstop is a speedy player as he stole 52 bases combined in his first two college seasons, and he has a .320 career average.
Summary (Rounds 1 - 30):
12 College Pitchers (2 LHP, 10 RHP)
13 College Hitters (4 OF, 3 SS, 3 Catchers, 2 3B, 1 1B)
4 High School Pitchers (2 LHP, 2 RHP)
1 High School Hitter (3B)
Dodgers Select Chris Reed in 1st Round of 2011 Draft
With the #16 overall pick in the 2011 draft, the Dodgers selected Chris Reed, the 6'4" lefty out of Stanford. His Baseball America scouting report is as follows:
Last year was the first time since 1999 that Stanford didn't have a player selected in the first five rounds of the draft. That won't happen again this year because of Reed, who could go as high as the sandwich round. Reed is listed at 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds, but scouts say he has grown and gained strength from last year to this year. His fastball varies from 89-91 mph some nights to 92-94 on others, and he has touched 96. He'll show a power slider and above-average changeup, but all of his stuff needs more consistency. That should come with experience. Reed has totaled just 60 innings at Stanford and has started only one game. His size, athleticism and three-pitch mix will tempt teams to give him a shot as a starter in pro ball.
Baseball America ranked Reed #60 overall in their pre-draft ranking, although Reed was linked to the Dodgers earlier today. The Dodgers should have no trouble signing Reed for slot money, and potentially could even get him below slot. The fact that the Dodgers went away from their usual draft strategy of selecting the best player available at #16 shows that the takeover by major league baseball definitely had an impact on this draft.
Reed was mostly a reliever in college, but he has a solid 3 pitch mix so the thought is that he'll be a starter in the Dodgers system. During his 2011 junior season, Reed made 28 appearances, with just one of them being a start. He threw 49.1 innings, had a 2.54 ERA, 9 saves, and a .201 batting average against. As a sophomore, Chris appeared in 19 games and had a 6.10 ERA over 20.2 innings.
Since Stanford has made it to the Super Regionals of the College World Series, we will probably get to see Reed pitch before he signs with the Dodgers. When the Cardinal get eliminated (or go all the way), he'll probably sign quickly and may even start his career in a full season league such as the Midwest League.
“He’s an excellent competitor, has three quality pitches, sound mechanics and a great deal of athleticism,” said Assistant GM, Scouting Logan White. “He’s also a smart, local guy who has a fine family background.”
From the Dodgers press release:
The Cleveland High School (Reseda) graduate was rated as the top prospect and earned an All-Star selection in the Atlantic Collegiate Summer League in 2010, posting a 1.09 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 33.0 innings.
Here is the official MLB Draft scouting report of Reed
A Look at the Dodgers 2011 Draft - Part 3 (Potential 1st Round Picks)
The 2011 MLB draft is today, and the Dodgers hold the 16th overall pick this year. Due to the supplemental/sandwich round in between the 1st and 2nd rounds the Dodgers next pick is #73, and their 3rd round pick will be #103 overall. Then from rounds 4 - 50 the Dodgers have the 13th pick each round.
In the first part of my draft series I looked at previous Dodger picks that are eligible for the draft, and in part two I posted the draftable players who have Dodger or baseball bloodlines.
Today, we are going to focus on the Dodgers 1st round pick and look at the potential players the team might target at #16. The #16 pick is the earliest that the Dodgers get to select since 2008, when they took Ethan Martin at #15 overall. Past history tells us that the Dodgers will take a high school player with their first selection, which is what the team has done in 8 of the past 10 years (with 7 of those 8 high school players being pitchers; Loney being the lone exception). However due to the ownership controversy things are a little more cloudy this year, especially because high school pitchers are generally more expensive to sign than college players because they have more leverage. That being said, baseball's current collective bargaining agreement expires at the end of this season, and one of the topics of discussion is implementing a hard slotting system into the draft. Therefore, many experts believe that players will be more willing to sign this year than usual because a discounted deal in 2011 will probably still be higher than a potential slotted bonus in the future.
So, who are some candidates for the Dodgers 1st round pick? I'll look at quite a few possibilities, sorted by position and level.
High School Pitchers: As mentioned high school pitchers is where the Dodgers usually go with their 1st round pick, but this year could be different. There seem to be a few players who are clearly out of reach, but anything is possible so I'm including those guys as well.
- Archie Bradley - RHP - The 6'4" Bradley would normally be a classic Dodger 1st round pick, but he has recently floated bonus demands of around $20M. While he won't get that much, he appears to have out-priced the Dodgers who are going to pretty much have to stick to slot according to various sources. Bradley has had some late helium, hitting 101 mph on the radar gun during a playoff game and showing plus secondary stuff, so he'll probably get selected prior to #16 anyways. He also has a scholarship offer to play quarterback at Oklahoma which complicates matters even more. He's a pitcher I would love to have in the system, but it's almost guaranteed that it won't happen.
- Taylor Guerrieri - RHP - Guerrieri is another high school right hander who may or may not be available at pick #16. Entering his senior year his fastball was in the low 90's but he was clocked at 98 mph this past season and is rising up the draft charts. He's 6'3", 180 lbs, and is supposed to be the 3rd best high school pitcher in the draft in terms of pure stuff. Even if he gets to the Dodgers at #16 he still might be too expensive.
- Robert Stephenson - RHP - Stephenson is from Alhambra high school, but it's not the Alhambra most of us think of near LA but is instead in Northern California. Like other pitchers already mentioned Robert throws in the low to mid 90's (hitting as high as 97 mph), and has developing secondary stuff; with a curveball that has the chance to become plus at the next level. He's thought of more as a late 1st round pick, which might make him more attractive to the Dodgers as he could be willing to sign for less than some of the upper tier talent. His name has been linked to the Dodgers quite a bit recently and is my guess for who the Dodgers take at #16.
- Daniel Norris - LHP - As late as November Norris was rated by Baseball America as the 2nd best high school player in this draft, but his stock has dipped slightly since then and it looks like he'll be available at #16. He throws in the low 90's and can hit 96 mph, and is a lefty that stands at 6'3". He's committed to Clemson and recently has thrown around bonus demands of $4M, so while he is solid arm he might not be a great fit for LA.
- Henry Owens - LHP - Owens is a local high school kid from Huntington Beach who stands at 6'7". He's been mentioned as a potential 2011 1st round pick since his junior season, although recent mock drafts have him going toward the end of the 1st round. He can hit 94 but sits mostly in the low 90's, and he has a lot of secondary pitches although none appear to be plus pitches at this point.
- Jose Fernandez - RHP - Fernandez made it to the US from Cuba as a teenager, and there is some concern that he is older than his listed age of 18. That being said he has an 98 mph fastball and a hard curveball, and also has a lot of confidence in his pitches. He's predicted to go in the bottom of the 1st round and shouldn't be too expensive, so it's possible the Dodgers will try to get him for straight slot money at #16. A few recent mock drafts have the Dodgers taking Fernandez, and he actually makes a lot of sense all things considered.
- Dillon Howard - RHP - Howard is the top high school player in Arkansas, but he isn't necessarily a guaranteed 1st round pick. Still his name has been associated with the Dodgers maybe because like Stephenson he'll sign cheaper that other top high school pitchers. His fastball gets up to 94 mph and has good sink, and his secondary stuff is good yet inconsistent.
College Pitchers: College pitchers are generally cheaper than their prep counterparts, which lead a lot of people to believe that it makes sense for the Dodgers to take a college arm from this year's deep pool.
- Matt Barnes - RHP - Should the Dodgers go with a college arm, there's a good chance they'll take Barnes if he's still available at #16. Barnes is 6'4" and had a 1.12 ERA at Connecticut during the regular season (112.1 innings). He throws in the mid 90's and has a solid pitcher's frame, but given his outstanding season there is little reason to believe he'll be on the board when the Dodgers pick.
- Tyler Anderson - LHP - Anderson is a 6'4" lefty out of Oregon who should be around when the Dodgers pick. He's had a great junior season, but would likely sign for a decent price so he could be a good fit. He also has a great pitcher's frame and throws in the low 90's with above average movement. He also has a solid slider and an above-average changeup.
- Jed Bradley - LHP - I've seen Bradley go anywhere from #5 to #25 in recent mock drafts, so it will be interesting to see if he's still available at #16 for the Dodgers. He's another tall college lefty who can touch 95 mph and has a great pitching frame. He has two good secondary pitches in a slider and changeup.
- Anthony Meo - RHP - The Dodgers were linked to Meo in a few early mock drafts, but recently his stock has dropped and he is no longer seen as a true 1st round talent. He has an upper 90's fastball and a strong slider, but some think he is destined to be a reliever. He still could be a potential pick at #16 since he'd probably sign for slot money.
- Matt Purke - LHP - Before his injury Purke was considered one of the top 3 talents in the draft, but now he might not even get picked in the 1st round. Since there is now a good chance he'll still be available at #16, could the Dodgers take a chance on him and try and use his injury to get him to sign for slot money? It's highly unlikely, especially since he is just a sophomore, but you never know.
High School Position Players: There aren't a whole lot of options here that the Dodgers would actually consider because most high school hitters with 1st round talent are firmly committed to college or are asking for a big bonus.
- Francisco Lindor - SS - Lindor is considered the best shortstop in the draft, so there is a good chance he'll be a top 10 pick. Should he somehow fall to the Dodgers at #16, the Dodgers would probably scoop him up since you can never have too many good shortstop prospects in your system. He's a great defender and a good hitter, but his power is a question mark. Despite his accolades I don't think he'd require a crazy bonus, but again I don't expect him to be available when we pick anyways.
- Javier Baez - SS/3B - A couple of recent mock drafts have the Dodgers picking Baez at #16, but that's assuming that he'll still be available. Baez has better offensive tools than Lindor, including plus raw power, but he might outgrow the shortstop position. He would be a great player for our system and while I'm sure he's asking for an over-slot bonus I'm guessing he'd probably sign at the deadline for slot money.
College Position Players: The Dodgers haven't spent a 1st round pick on a college position player since they selected Bubby Crosby out of Rice in 1998. I don't see them going that route this year either, but you never know.
- C.J. Cron - 1B/C - This is probably a stretch as the Dodgers most likely take a pitcher, but if they do go for a position player who will sign for a decent price they might go with Cron. The power hitter from Utah had 15 homers and a .434 average during the 2011 college season and would give the Dodgers the power hitting 1st baseman their minor league system lacks. He also has baseball bloodlines, and his raw power is ranked by some scouts as an 80 on the 20-80 scale.
- Kolten Wong - 2B - I wouldn't really be excited about a pick like this because I like players with more upside, but Wong is a talented player who reminds me a bit of Shane Victorino. He he is a spray hitter with moderate power and has a great approach at the plate. The Dodgers also don't really have a 2B prospect in their system besides Ivan De Jesus, so I guess this could make sense.
- Levi Michael - SS - Michael is like a souped up version of Jake Lemmerman, and even comes from the same conference as the played his college ball at North Carolina. There is no guarantee that he'll stay at shortstop, and while he doesn't really have any plus plus tools, he does have solid tools across the board.
So two questions to consider. First, who do you want the Dodgers to take with their 1st round pick? Second, what is your guess for who the Dodgers will actually take at #16?
A Look at the Dodgers 2011 Draft - Part 2 (Bloodlines)
The 2011 MLB draft starts on June 6th, and here is Part 2 of a 3 part series on potential players that the Dodgers may pick. Part 1 looked at the players who had been previously selected by the Dodgers, but didn't sign and are again eligible for this year's draft. Part 3 will be posted closer to the draft and will look at potential 1st round picks for the Dodgers
Today in Part 2, we'll look at some of the players eligible for the 2011 draft that have bloodlines in professional sports, and in particular guys who have some sort of a tie to the Dodgers. All teams like players with great bloodlines, but the Dodgers seem to be a little more focused on this than other teams.
Also, as I mentioned last time the Dodgers hold the 16th overall pick this year, their earliest selection since 2008. Due to the supplemental/sandwich round in between the 1st and 2nd rounds the Dodgers 2nd pick is #73, and because of a Mariners' extra pick in round 3 the Dodgers pick 14th that round. Then from rounds 4 - 50 the Dodgers have the 13th pick each round.
Bloodlines - Brother's of Current Dodgers
Nicky Delmonico - INF/C - Brother of Dodger farmhand Tony Delmonico - Nicky is a high school player who can play all over the infield, but is expected to be tried at catcher as a professional. Some saw him as a 1st round pick early in Spring, but he didn't have an overwhelming senior year and how he's seen more as a 2nd rounder. Given the Dodgers lack of catching depth in the minor leagues now that his brother Tony is now a 3rd baseman, Nicky could be a good fit for the Dodgers in the 2rd or 3rd round if he's still around.
Joey Delmonico - C - Brother of Dodger farmhand Tony Delmonico - Joey put up great stats at Volunteer State Community College, but he joined Georgia in 2011 and put up dismal stats as a part time player. That being said, he's a big bodied catcher and I'm sure the Dodgers will pick him in a late round if he's still available.
Cameron Gallagher - C - Brother of Dodger farmhand Austin Gallagher - Similar to Delmonico, Gallagher is a high school catcher who isn't a guarantee to stay behind the plate as a professional. He's a big kid like his brother, and he should get drafted in a spot similar to where Austin was selected (3rd round). I'm sure the Dodgers would love to have Cameron in their system, but I doubt they'd use a top pick on him so he'd probably have to slip a bit to become a Dodger.
Jeff Ames - RHP - Brother Dodger farmhand Steven Ames - Jeff has been drafted twice before, in 2009 as a 46th round pick by the Phillies and in 2010 as a 30th round pick by the Rockies, but he declined to sign each time. Instead, Ames has spent the past two seasons at Lower Columbia Community College and has posted solid stats. He has a mid 90's fastball and is projected as a 3rd to 5th round pick, so I'm almost positive he'll sign this time around. We'll see if the Dodgers are willing to spend a relatively high pick on the brother of Steven, who is has had a great professional career thus far.
Son/Grandson of Dodgers
Ryan Garvey - OF - Son of former Dodger Steve Garvey - This son of Steve Garvey played his high school baseball out in Palm Desert and led his team to the CIF playoffs with a .381 average and 9 homers during the regular season. He's committed to USC and is expected to be a 5th to 6th round pick, but I'm sure the Dodgers would love to have him in their system is just because of his name. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Dodgers ended up picking him.
Jordan Hershiser - RHP - Son of former Dodger Orel Hershiser - Hershiser has been injured for almost his entire career at USC and still has eligibility for the Trojans, but he's already spent 4 years in college so if he wants to have a major league career he should probably get started as a pro. It makes too much sense for the Dodgers to draft him with a late round pick, and if they do pick him I wouldn't doubt that the 6'8" right-hander would sign with this father's former team.
Brian Howe - LHP - Son of former Dodger Steve Howe - Brian won't be a 1st round pick like his father was, but someone will take a late round flyer on this left-hander. Howe stands at just 5'10", but he has had some success at Montana State over the past few seasons.
Riley Welch - RHP - Son of former Dodger Bob Welch - Welch was used very sparingly for Hawaii in 2011, but will probably get drafted based on his name in a late round.
Brandon Bonilla - LHP - Son of former Dodger Bobby Bonilla - Bobby's time with the Dodgers was brief as he spent most of his career with the Pirates and Mets. Nevertheless Brandon is a high school lefty with a low 90's fastball so the Dodgers could take a late round flyer on Bonilla if he slips to the later rounds.
Bobby Buckner - INF - Son of former Dodger Bill Buckner - Bill is best known as a Red Sox, but he did spent the first 8 seasons of his career in Los Angeles. Bobby hasn't had a great college career, and has actually bounced around to a few different colleges, but I'm sure he'll get drafted in a later round due to his bloodlines; possibly by the Dodgers.
Travis Shaw - 3B - Son of former Dodger Jeff Shaw - Travis is a big kid at 6'4" and 215 lbs and has put up very solid offensive stats at Kent State over the past few seasons. He hit .330 with 15 homers as a sophomore, and now as a Junior is batting .316 with 14 jacks through 58 games. He isn't considered a top draft prospect, so maybe the Dodgers can get the powerful Shaw as a middle round pick.
Tyler Bream - 3B - Son of former Dodger Sid Bream - His father was a 2nd round pick by the Dodgers in 1981 and spent 2 and a half seasons in Los Angeles before getting traded to the Pirates. Tyler had a great year in 2010 for Liberty College and is a big kid at 6'4", however his stats in 2011 have been less than impressive. He'll probably be a middle round pick and the Dodgers may or may not be the team that picks him.
Matt Scioscia - C - Son of former Dodger Mike Scioscia - Matt hasn't played much at all during his career at Notre Dame and is hitting just .200 in 16 games for the Irish in 2011. He could be a late round pick of the Dodgers or more likely the Angels.
Kyle Hardy - 3B - Grandson of former Brooklyn Dodger Bill Hardy - Kyle has jumped around to a few different colleges, but spent 2011 at Missouri State. He stands at 6'3" and 220 lbs, but had a terrible year at the plate in 2011.
Other Baseball Relatives
Dante Bichette Jr. - 3B - Son of former big league player Dante Bichette - The younger Bichette has good power and plus bat speed, and is expected to get picked in the 3rd or 4th round. I'm sure other teams will be all over him as well, so I don't expect the Dodgers to get him.
Shawn Dunston Jr. - OF - Son of former big league player Shawn Dunston - Another guy expected to go pretty early, he probably won't fall to where the Dodgers would want to draft him.
Dereck Rodriguez - OF - Son of current big league player Ivan Rodriguez - Dereck is bigger than his dad at 6'2", and plays outfield at his high school instead of catcher. He seems likely to sign with whichever team drafts him, and seems like he'll be a 8 to 15 round pick.
Shane Zeile - SS - Nephew of former Dodger Todd Zeile - He's committed to UCLA and probably won't sign, but that won't stop a team like the Dodgers from taking him with a late round pick.
Garrett Buechele - 3B - Son of former big league player Steve Buechele - Garrett was an 18th round pick last year as a draft eligible sophomore, but didn't sign and is expected to go higher this year. He's hitting .336 through 55 games for Oklahoma with 8 homers and had 17 jacks in 2010.
Joe Ross - RHP - Brother of current Athletic pitcher Tyson Ross - The Dodgers probably won't have a shot at getting Ross unless they take him in the first round because he is expected to be a sandwich round pick. He has a low to mid 90's fastball with a hard curveball.
Dwight Smith Jr. - OF - Son of former big league player Dwight Smith - Here is another player who is expected to go early, so the Dodgers likely won't this projected 1st round pick.
Patrick Palmeiro - INF/OF - Son of former big league player Rafael Palmeiro - Patrick didn't really do much during his first 2 years of college, but he transfered to the University of Alabama at Birmingham for his Junior year and has blossomed to some extent, hitting .284 with 8 homers and a team leading 43 RBI's through 57 games.
A Look at the 2011 MLB Draft - Part 1 (Previously Drafted Players)
The 2011 MLB draft starts on June 6th, so I'm going to be doing a 3 part series on potential players that the Dodgers may pick. Part 1 will take a look at the players who had been previously selected by the Dodgers, but didn't sign and are again eligible for this year's draft. Part 2 will focus on players in the 2011 draft who have famous bloodlines, something that the Dodgers have focused on in previous year. And finally, Part 3 will look at potential 1st round picks for the Dodgers and will be posted right before the draft.
Today, we'll look at players that are eligible for the 2011 draft who already have ties to the Dodgers because they were drafted by the Dodgers in the past. One example of this is 2010 7th round pick Ryan Christenson, who was drafted by the Dodgers twice before (in 2009 and in 2007). I'm not saying that any of the below players are going to get drafted by the Dodgers this year, but it does make sense that each of these guys has a slightly higher chance of getting selected than your average player.
Also, it should be noted the Dodgers hold the 16th overall pick this year, their earliest selection since 2008. Due to the supplemental/sandwich round in between the 1st and 2nd rounds the Dodgers 2nd pick is #73, and because of a Mariners' extra pick in round 3 the Dodgers pick 14th that round. Then from rounds 4 - 50 the Dodgers have the 13th pick each round.
Previous Dodger Picks (Starting from their most recent pick)
2010 Picks
Jake Eliopoulos - LHP - 2010 15th round pick: Eliopoulos was also the 2nd round pick of the Blue Jays in 2009, but he seems to have dropped off of the draft radar as I can't find any information about him. He sounded like a guy ready to sign last year, but he's had a bit of a troubled past so it makes me wonder if the Dodgers decided not to offer him a contract after all. Therefore, I doubt the Dodgers draft him again.
Chad Arnold - RHP - 2010 18th round pick: Arnold elected not to sign with the Dodgers last year after posting a 3.74 ERA in 108.1 innings for Washington State as a Junior, and that might have been a mistake because in 2011 he is struggling with the Cougars. Through 44 innings as a senior he has a 6.75 ERA in 44 innings with just 27 K's, so we'll see if the Dodgers take him with a late round pick this year.
Ben Carhart - 3B/P - 2010 19th round pick: Carhart was the Florida Junior College Player of the Year in 2010, batting .473 with 12 HR's and 72 RBIs. He also threw in the low 90's off the mound, and had a 0.00 ERA in 15 innings. According to Ben, "When [the Dodgers] called me right before they picked me and asked me if I'd sign, I said 'yes,'. And they offered me $30,000 and wouldn't budge. And the more I talked to my coaches (at Stetson and Palm Beach), they asked me if it was worth it to throw away a college chance and an education for that. So, I changed my mind." Carhart is now playing at Stetson and is a big reason why the team is ranked in the top 25 this year, although he has been limited to hitting because he's had some elbow pain in his one pitching appearance (and has already had Tommy John surgery). I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers picked Carhart again this year, possibly in the top 15 rounds.
Brett Lee - LHP - 2010 33rd round pick: Lee was 4-8 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 19 games wtih St. Petersburg JC (Florida), with 25 walks and 75 strikeouts in 80 innings. Apparently he is a lefty that throws in the mid 90's, so if that is true then I'm sure the Dodgers will pick him again if he they can get him in an attractive round.
Cal Vogelsang - 2B - 2010 37th round pick: Vogelsang hit .380 for College of the Canyons in 2010 with 11 homers and 35 RBI's, but declined to sign with the Dodgers and returned to COC in 2011. This year, his numbers are down to .282 with 3 HR's and 25 RBI's so it's hard to image that he'll get picked any higher this year.
Logan Gallagher - SS - 2010 45th round pick: Gallagher had a solid season at Louisburg Junior College in 2010 (.388 average), but he was disappointed at being drafted so late so decided to try his luck at the University of Delaware. He's had a very underwhelming season with the Blue Hens in 2011, however, with a .257 average through 21 games without a homer.
Cody Martin - 1B - 2010 47th round pick: Cody is Ethan Martin's brother, and is probably best known for throwing a pitch in a 2008 high school game that hit the umpire in the head when his catcher intentionally missed the pitch. Martin attended Chipola JC in 2010, but I can't anything about where he played in 2011.
2009 Picks
Shawn Payne - 2B - 2009 29th round pick: Payne was drafted as a sophomore by the Dodgers in 2009 then was selected by the Royals in the 44th round of the 2010 draft, but he chose to return to college. Now 21 years old, Payne is having a solid senior year at Georgia Southern (.321 average, 6 HR's, 27 SB's), so he might be worth a late round pick by the Dodgers.
Travis Burnside - OF - 2009 48th round pick - Burnside chose to attend Spartanbug Methodist Junior College instead of signing with the Dodgers, so he is eligible again for the draft this year. He has decent speed and power, and hit .335 in 2011, so it wouldn't surprise me if he was selected again by the Dodgers this year.
Dodgers 2010 Draft Summary
Now that the signing deadline has come and passed, I wanted to give my overview and opinion of the Dodgers 2010 draft. I didn’t mean for it to turn out as long as it did, but once I started writing I couldn’t stop. As a whole, I think the Dodgers did very well for themselves. They signed 30 of their 50 picks (although 14th round pick Alex McRee already retired for an unknown reason after just 1 inning in the Arizona Rookie League), including several players that I consider solid prospects.
Deals at the Deadline
Let’s begin with the deals that got done at the deadline, starting with our biggest prize. Zach Lee obviously was a huge pickup, and as I’ve already mentioned in the comments, I immediately consider him the top prospect in the system. Some have questioned my ranking, saying that guys like Jerry Sands and Trayvon Robinson have already performed well in AA and thus should be ranked higher than Lee. My response is this: I don’t rank guys based on their AA stats, but instead rank them on their big league potential. Of course it all still comes down one’s own opinion, but I personally think that Zach Lee will have a much more successful career in the big leagues than anyone else in our system. It’s really all about ceilings and the likelihood that a player will reach the ceiling, and I think Zach Lee has a much better possibly of being a #1 starter than Trayvon Robinson has of being a star in center fielder. Anyways, enough with the rankings and onto a quick scouting report. What I like most about Lee is that he already has 3 pitches that are already considered plus pitches by some, and that he has a very clean delivery. While he might not be able to hit the upper 90’s, I’d rather have a guy who throws 93 with a good changeup and breaking ball. He also already has solid control of his pitches, which is something most of our top pitching prospects lack. According to the MLB.com scouting report:
Fastball: Lee has touched 95 mph on the gun and generally sits in the 90-92 mph range.
Fastball movement: He has plus movement. Everything he throws has depth to it.
Slider: It's nice and short, a plus breaking ball thrown 79-81 mph.
Changeup: It's Major League average now and projects to be a plus pitch in the future. He's not afraid to throw it when behind in the count.
Control: He's got better command and feel for pitching than you expect a two-sport star to have.
The other thing I like about Lee is his athletic build and his multi-sport background. 6’4" is the perfect pitchers height so his velocity is only going to improve with professional coaching. As Logan White said, he could be in the big leagues by the time he is 21 years old, which would be great. Obviously the $5.25M we gave Lee is a big chunk of change, and a lot of that had to do with his leverage, but even still I think he’ll turn out to be one of the better picks in the entire 2010 draft. As Jim Callis said from Baseball America, he would have been drafted much higher had he not had signability issues. He was even considered the 2nd best high school pitcher in the draft by some. When it is all said and done, I think Kershaw will have a better big league career than Zach Lee, but I think it will be a lot closer than people think.
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