More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

18 days ago: Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Vicente Padilla throws in the outfield during practice for the National League Championship baseball series Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009, in Philadelphia. Padilla starts for the Dodgers when they face the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 5 Wednesday, trailing in the series 3-1. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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Randy Wolf.  Clayton Kershaw.  Chad Billingsley.  Hiroki Kuroda.  Jon Garland.

None of these starting pitchers will be making their third start this postseason today.  That honor falls to Vicente Padilla, who has pitched like an ace so far this October.

Padilla sure picked a great time to have his best two starts as a Dodger.  Padilla has allowed one run in 14.1 innings over his two playoff starts so far, and the Dodgers are hoping he can give them yet another strong start.  Burt Hooton is the only Dodger ever with three straight postseason starts allowing one run or fewer in seven or more innings, turning the trick in 1981.

Cole Hamels started last year's Game 5, allowing just one run over seven innings as the Phillies won their pennant at Dodger Stadium.  The Dodgers of course can't return the favor tonight, but the very least they can do is to assure that the 2009 NL pennant will be won at Dodger Stadium too.

Andre Ethier is the only Dodger starter with an OPS above .783 this postseason:

The Dodgers need production from the offense if they want to play at home on Friday and/or Saturday.

Here's a brief look at the Dodgers' history when down 3-1 in the postseason:

• 1916: Ernie Shore of the Red Sox threw a 3-hit CG to win 4-1, giving Boston it's fourth championship
• 1941: One game after being stunned in the 9th inning (sound familiar?) by a strike 3 passed ball by Mickey Owen, leading to a four-run rally, the Dodgers fell to the Yankees 3-1 behind a CG by Tiny Bonham and a HR by Tommy Henrich
• 1949: The Dodgers fell 10-6 to the Yankees to lose their third series to the Yankees in nine years. 
• 1974: After three straight 3-2 games, the Dodgers must have been confused by the 5-2 defeat to the A's in Game 4, as they fell in Game 5 by yet another 3-2 score
• 1977:  Trailing the Yankees 3-1, the Dodgers finally pulled one out, scoring a 10-4 win at Dodger Stadium by limiting Reggie Jackson to just one home run.  Jackson, however, had the last laugh, hitting three bombs in Game 6, cementing his status as Mr. October and denying the Dodgers a championship.
• 2008:  Last season's NLCS Game 5 was dominated by Cole Hamels, who allowed just one run over seven innings.  The Phillies managed a few early runs, knocking out Chad Billingsley early, and the Phillies won their first pennant in 25 15 years.

So that's six times the Dodgers were down 3-1, and they forced a Game 6 just once.  However, the Dodgers did win three straight in the 1981 NLDS after falling behind 0-2 in the best-of-five series.

There is only one option tonight.  Win.

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The Sons of Steve Garvey have an exclusive interview with the Don't Stop Believin' Guy.  Good job, Delino!

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Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time:  5:07pm

TV: TBS (Chip Caray, Ron Darling, Buck Martinez)

Baseball Reference Game Five Preview

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

The Wolfman Cometh tonight for the Dodgers

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So, other than that, how was the play last night, Mrs. Lincoln?

If baseball had a football schedule, we would have a week to stew over last night's debacle, but luckily the greatest game on Earth is quick to forgive and forget, as the Dodgers have a chance to quickly erase last night's memory from their minds.

Randy Wolf returns to his old stomping grounds tonight, trying to even the NLCS at two.  Wolf was drafted by the Phillies in 1997, and spent his first ten years as a pro in the Phillies' organization.  He started the very first game at Citizens Bank Park, in 2004.  Manager Joe Torre thought highly enough of Wolf to start him in the NLDS opener against the Cardinals.  However, Wolf was inexplicably dropped to fourth in the rotation for the NLCS, but that decision may just pay off just when the Dodgers need it most.  Wolf was a rock for the Dodgers this season, leading the club in starts, innings, and quality starts. 

Left-handed batters hit just .159/.217/.200 against Wolf this season, striking out in 60 of 185 plate appearances, a stellar 32.4% of the time.  In Game 1 against the Cardinals, lefties Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus had two hits and two walks in five plate appearances against Wolf.  Ryan Howard, who struggled against LHP all season, has a double and two walks in five plate appearances against southpaws in the NLCS, with three runs batted in.

Joe Blanton, who was used in relief in the NLDS, starts tonight for the Phillies.  After giving up five runs in five innings in Cincinnati on May 21 (in a win!), Blanton's ERA stood at 7.11, as home plate was always open for the opposition.  Since then, however, Blanton really turned it around, going 10-5 with a 3.16 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 23 starts, averaging 6.57 innings per start.

To win tonight, the Dodger offense needs to show up.  Over the last two games, the Dodgers have no extra-base hits, and have just two runs and 11 baserunners in total, hitting .145/.190/.145.  I keep hearing Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly park, but the Dodgers are doing their best to convince me otherwise.  Since the beginning of 2008, the Dodgers have scored just 29 runs in 10 games in Philadelphia, including the playoffs.  Nine of those runs came in one game, earlier this season, but other than that runs have been few and far between for the Dodgers in the city of brotherly love.  To win tonight and in this series, they need to score, and score often.

A few notes:

• Manny Ramirez has 15 hits in 26 at-bats against Blanton, hitting .577/.636/.731 with one home run
• James Loney is seven for 10 with a double off Blanton, hitting .700/.750/.800
• Andre Ethier has six hits in 14 at-bats, including two solo home runs, against Blanton, hitting .429/.467/.857
• Casey Blake has just one single in 23 at-bats against Blanton, hitting .043/.154/.043
• Pedro Feliz is five for 19 with three homers off Wolf, hitting .294/.316/.824
• Carlos Ruiz if four for six, with two doubles and a home run (shocker, I know) off Wolf, packing a lot of production (.667/.750/1.500) into just eight plate appearances

The Dodgers this postseason are 4-0 when playing on a day with other games scheduled, and 0-2 when they are the lone game on the schedule.  The Yankees and Angels play Game 3 of the ALCS today at 1:13pm.

Here are the lineups for Game 4:

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Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time:  5:07pm

TV: TBS (Chip Caray, Ron Darling, Buck Martinez)

Baseball Reference Game Four Preview

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

"Their name: The Aristocrats!"

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After splitting two games at Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers and Phillies resume the NLCS tonight in the city of brotherly love tonight for Game 3.

Hiroki Kuroda makes his return from a bulging disk in his neck (try saying that three times fast -- it's hard; just ask Steve Levy), pitching against a team he has had great success against.  Kuroda has allowed four runs in four career starts against the Phillies:

Then again, Kuroda hasn't pitched since September 28.  The long layoff seemed to work for Pedro Martinez though.  If Kuroda is to win Game 3 of the NLCS for the second year in a row, he will rely on his great control, among other things.  Kuroda on the season walked just 1.84 batters per nine innings, 10th best in MLB for pitchers with 100 innings or more.  However, Cliff Lee was fourth on that list, walking 1.67 per nine.

Lee, acquired at the trade deadline by the Phillies, has been wonderful since joining the National League (and he was no slouch in the American League, either).  In 96 innings as a Phillie, including the playoffs, Lee has a 3.00 ERA, a 2.75 FIP, has walked 1.22 batters per nine innings, and struck out 7.88 per nine.  In six starts at Citizens Bank Park, Lee has allowed zero or one run four times.

For those worried about Chad Billingsley's future prospects, look no further than Cliff Lee.  As Canuck Dodger has pointed out, Lee was sent to the minors at age 28 in 2007, and was left off the Indians' postseason roster that year.  All he proceeded to do was win the AL Cy Young award in 2008, and had another stellar season this year.  That said, it wouldn't bother me if Lee had some trouble in the sixth inning tonight.

Andre Ethier, who is hitting .450/.522/1.000 this postseason, has an RBI in four straight postseason games.  Only Manny Ramirez, who had a run batted in every game in last year's NLCS, has had a longer streak in Dodger playoff history.  Bill Russell also had a streak of four straight playoff games with an RBI, in 1981.

From the useless trivia department, the Dodgers have lost their last four NLCS games three on the road (1981, 1983, 1985, and 1988).  Their only such win was in Game 3 of the 1977 NLCS in Philadelphia -- the Vic Davalillo / Davey Lopes game, when the Dodgers scored three in the ninth to win 6-5.

Dodger assistant general manager Kim Ng interviewed yesterday with the Padres for their vacant general manager position.

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Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time:  5:07pm

TV: TBS (Chip Caray, Ron Darling, Buck Martinez)

Baseball Reference Game Three Preview

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Will the magical run of Vicente Padilla continue today?

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I'm torn between how I want to remember last night's game.  The loss was painful, sure, so ultimately the negatives will outweigh the positives, but I can't help but think there were some good things that came out of last night's game too:

• Manny Ramirez struck out in his first two at-bats, but battled through 15 pitches in doing so.  He later came through with a home run to get the Dodgers back in the game right after the horrible top of the fifth.
• The Dodgers got to Cole Hamels, for once.  After never pitching less than seven innings nor ever giving up more than two runs to the Dodgers, Hamels allowed four runs in 5.1 innings.
• The Dodgers were only three for 14 with runners in scoring position, but I find it very hard to take issue with an offense that scored six runs on 14 hits.
• James Loney had three hits, including a rare Dodger Stadium home run, and is now hitting .380/.446/.560 with 12 runs batted in in 13 playoff games in his career
  

For today, the Dodgers have to continue what they're doing on offense and, I don't know, maybe give up one or two fewer three-run jacks.

Both teams have six capable starting pitchers at their disposal.  What are the odds that Vicente Padilla and Pedro Martinez would be pitching in Game 2 of the NLCS?  1,000 to one?  Would it be off the board?

Martinez had flashes of brilliance for the Phillies in August and September, but ever since throwing 119 and 130 pitches in back-to-back starts, he hasn't been the same pitcher.  In his last two regular season starts, Pedro allowed six runs on 13 hits in just seven innings, while striking out only three batters.  He hasn't pitched since September 30, but a similarly long layoff didn't hinder Chan Ho Park last night, who blew Matt Kemp away with a 96-mph fastball in the seventh inning.

The Dodgers are hoping Vicente Padilla continues his groove.  In his last 14 innings, he has allowed one run on eight hits and two walks while striking out 17.  Since joining the Dodgers, Padilla has thrown 46.1 innings, including the playoffs, and has a 2.72 ERA and 3.02 FIP.

Call me crazy, but I think the Dodgers today get what they have been longing for for quite a long time:  a win in a playoff game started by Pedro Martinez at Dodger Stadium.

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Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time:  1:07pm

TV: TBS (Chip "Fisted" Caray, Ron Darling, Buck Martinez)

Baseball Reference Game Two Preview

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

The Kid gets the call for Game 1.

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One of the beauties of baseball is the daily grind, the unending test of wills.  Off days can be excruciating, as we wait for our beloved game to return.  We don't want to hear about owners potentially getting divorced, we don't want to read a lazy column still clinging to a false premise.  In short, we don't want to talk about baseball; we want to watch baseball.

Today, we get that chance.

Clayton Kershaw continues his ascension to the top of the heap, as he gets the Game 1 start.  At 21 years, 209 days old, Kershaw is the second youngest Dodger to start a game one, trailing only Fernando Valenzuela, who was 20 years, 339 days old when he started Game 1 of the 1981 NLCS.

Cole Hamels, 2008 postseason hero for the Phillies, gets the start for the Phillies, looking to continue his dominance of the Dodgers.  Including the playoffs, Hamels has made six career starts against the Dodgers, and I see a disturbing trend:

Yikes.  In each of his six starts against the Dodgers, Hamels has pitched at least seven innings, and has never given up more than two runs.  The good news for the Dodgers is that: (a) they won two of those six games, and (b) they have Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw has given up three runs in only three of his 17 home starts this season, allowing a total of just 22 runs.  Kershaw put up a 1.89 ERA and a 2.69 FIP at Dodger Stadium in 2009 so far.  In short, Game 1 figures to be a low scoring affair.

In roster news, the only change for the Dodgers from the NLDS to the NLCS is that Hiroki Kuroda is on the roster, replacing Jon Garland.  Chad Billingsley has been moved to the bullpen.  For the Phillies, Eric Bruntlett and Old Friend Chan Ho Park are replacing Brett Myers and Kyle Kendrick, according to David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News.  Bruntlett (a Stanford alum) presumably was added to match the Dodgers' Brad Ausmus (Dartmouth) as the smart guy who can't hit.

[Update] - Scott Elbert made the NLCS roster over Jeff Weaver

Complete NLCS Roster:

Enough talk.  It's time for baseball.

Game Time:  5:07pm

TV: TBS (Chip "Fisted" Caray, Ron Darling, Buck Martinez)

Baseball Reference Game One Preview

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Vicente Padilla's stare will match what he throws Saturday: blanks

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The Dodgers have a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five series, but we need not look farther back than Game 2 to see that until the deed is done, there's no reason to celebrate just yet.  The Dodgers still have a lot of work to do, but they do in fact have a bid advantage.  After all, a bird in the hand is worth two in the Busch.

Vicente Padilla gets the honor of starting today, with an opportunity to send the Dodgers to the next round.  He has not faced the Cardinals since 2003.  All we know is that Padilla has made seven starts as a Dodger, and the Dodgers have won six games.  Padilla is 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA, a 3.40 FIP, and a 3.46 x-FIP as a Dodger.  He can join Jeff Weaver, Ronnie Belliard, and Mark Loretta in the group of unlikely Dodger heroes this postseason with a win.

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright have rightfully shared the spotlight this season, but Joel Pineiro has had a fine season, finishing 9th in the league in FIP (3.31) and 11th in the league in x-FIP (3.76).  Pineiro doesn't strikeout anyone (just 4.4 per nine innings this season), but he limits walks and home runs like nobody's business.  Pineiro was brilliant on July 29 against the Dodgers, allowing just one run in eight innings.

What the Dodgers can hang their hat on against the mustachioed Pineiro (aren't they all?) is that for the last two months, he has pitched more like, well, Joel Pineiro.  In his final 12 starts of the season Pineiro was 6-3, but with a 4.64 ERA and a 4.68 FIP.

This is the first postseason start for both Padilla and Pineiro, meaning five of the six starting pitchers in this series were making their first postseason start.  Pineiro allowed one run in two innings of relief in his one playoff experience, in the 2001 ALCS against the Yankees.

The Cardinals have three hits in 22 at-bat with runners in scoring position so far this series.  The Dodgers aren't much better at 4-for-18, although those last two hits are the difference between a 1-1 series and a 2-0 Dodger lead.

The Dodgers are 0-5 all-time in playoff games in St. Louis (three in 1985, two in 2004).

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time: 3:07pm

TV: TBS (Dodgers are the first only game today, so no need to start with TNT)

Baseball Reference Game Three Preview

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

This was fun. Let's do this again Thursday.

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The uniqueness of baseball is the daily grind, the unending constant that rewards consistency and longevity.  Over the course of a long season, the cream will almost always rise to the top.  There is some anxiety, but for the most part the regular season is all about the workman-like punching of a time clock every day.  As fans, we can only handle so much stress.  In the regular season, we can remind ourselves to not get too high nor too low, because the game is only one out of 162.

Now come the playoffs.  Last night's game was intense.  It was a four-hour ride of nervousness, all the way to the end.  It was thrilling, an exciting victory, and today we are back at it again.  If the Dodgers make a long run this month, I have a feeling my nerves are going to be shot just after Halloween.

Speaking of shot nerves, we have a pair of pitchers making their first career playoff start today.  Adam Wainwright does have postseason experience; he was a dominant reliever in the Cardinals' 2006 title run, striking out 15 in 9.2 scoreless innings.  He even got the final out of both the NLCS and World Series.

Clayton Kershaw, at 21, is the Dodgers' best pitcher.  But, like on the mound, he is wise beyond his years, as he told Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times:

"I'll probably be nervous for sure," he said. "I'm nervous every time I pitch. I think it's how you handle the nerves, how you channel it, how you can use it to your advantage sometimes."

Kershaw amazingly has not won a game since July 18, despite a 2.52 ERA and 2.54 FIP since then.  What better time for his first win than today?  Kershaw has allowed 20 runs in 16 home starts this season.

Last night's win by the Dodgers was just the ninth in their postseason history when the starting pitcher failed to complete four innings.  The Dodgers are 9-29 all-time when their starter doesn't last four, and the last win in such a scenario was Game 1 of the 1988 World Series, when Tim Belcher lasted just two innings, but the Dodgers ended up winning somehow (I don't remember the details).

After winning game one of a playoff series, the Dodgers have won their last three games two.  Their last game two loss after winning game one was Game 2 of the 1981 NLCS, when Ray Burris of the Expos pitched a five-hit shutout.

The Dodgers are 2-6 all-time in games on October 8.  Their best win was the clinching victory over the White Sox in Game 6 of the 1959 World Series, and the worst loss was the Don Larsen perfect game in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series.

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Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time: 3:07pm

TV: TBS, but will start on TNT if the Rockies/Phillies game runs long

Baseball Reference Game One Preview

by Jae C. Hong - AP

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Game one is upon us, finally.  The last two days have seemed like an eternity, but game day is finally here.  It no longer matters what happened over the final 10, 20, or 30 games, or even the season for that matter.  It doesn't matter how many pundits pick against the team with the best record in the National League, and the best run differential in baseball.  All that matters now is that the playoffs are here, the Cardinals are here, and the Dodgers get to play at home.

The Dodgers have lost 31 of their last 43 games against the Cardinals, and they will start Chris Carpenter, who is something like 74-2 against the Dodgers with a 0.07 ERA.  I may have rounded on those numbers, so don't quote me.  I went back to MLB Gameday to look at both of Carpenter's starts against the Dodgers, both Cardinal wins.  I looked specifically at how he pitched to the Dodgers' big three outfielders, trying to find a pattern:

vs. Andre Ethier: Carpenter threw 17 pitches, but only five fastballs.  Ethier smoked the three fastballs that were strikes for a single, double, and a lineout.  Carpenter had success when keeping the ball up on Ethier, inducing a couple infield popups and a groundout

vs. Manny Ramirez:  Threw 10 fastballs in 22 pitches.  Carpenter had success when challenging Manny on his hands with the inside fastball, inducing a pair of double plays.  Manny hit a double off a mistake pitch, a fastball Carpenter left up in the zone.

vs. Matt Kemp: Threw nine fastballs in 29 pitches.  Carpenter got Kemp out on off-speed stuff away.  Kemp was patient though, seeing those 29 pitches in only six plate appearances.

I'm no scout, but it seems to me the Dodgers strategy against Carpenter is to wait on his fastball.  It could be a dangerous plan against someone who walks so few hitters (1.8 walks per nine innings on the season), but it was the same plan that worked against Tim Lincecum at Dodger Stadium nearly three weeks ago.

A better strategy just might be to have Randy Wolf pitch a good game.  Tonight is Wolf's first playoff game, in his 11th big league season, so I'm sure the butterflies will be there.  Then again, he did give up 16 and 17 runs in the first two innings, respectively, this year, so that might not be anything new.  Then again, Wolf almost always settles down and ends up pitching deep into the game, so there is no need to worry.

All quality starts are not created equal, but Wolf is comparable to Carpenter in that department.  Wolf threw 24 quality starts, which was 71% of the time, good for eighth in the NL.  Carpenter was second in the league, throwing a quality start in 22 of 28 starts, 79% of the time.

The last time the Dodgers hosted game one of a playoff series was in 1996 against the Braves, a 2-1 loss in 10 innings.  The Braves' starter that day was John Smoltz, who will be available in the bullpen for tonight's game and might start game four on Sunday.

James Loney has a hit in each of the eight postseason games he has started, and is hitting .382/.447/.559 with 11 runs batted in in nine playoff games.

The Cardinals have two left-handed relievers on their playoff roster, Dennys Reyes and Trever Miller.  Andre Ethier, who hit .194/.283/.345 against southpaws this season, has only limited action against both.  He is 0-for-1 with  walk and a HBP against Reyes, and has one hit in five at-bats against Miller.  Ethier did manage to hit lefites well at home, however, hitting .305/.376/.610 with six home runs in 93 plate appearances at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodgers are 4-6 all-time in game ones at Dodger Stadium.

Game Time: 6:37pm

TV: TBS (all NL playoff games will be on TBS)

Baseball Reference Game One Preview