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Phighting Words: a Q&A With The Good Phight

Finally, after a long layoff, today brings us baseball.

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Finally, after a long layoff, today brings us baseball.

As we head into the NLCS, I had a chance to ask a few questions of Peter Baker (aka Whole Camels) of The Good Phight, the SB Nation Phillies blog. Here are his responses:

1) Give me your thoughts on Brad Lidge. Have his struggles been overblown this season? Are you confident with him as closer, or should the job go to someone else?

No, no, and sort of. Lidge's struggles have absolutely not been overblown; if anything they've been underblown (invented word!). His 7.21 ERA could actually have been higher if not for the fact that several of his worst outings were interrupted by the opponents' celebrations at home plate after he served up a walk-off of some kind.

He's been atrocious and there's no way to mitigate it. I'll always love him for 2008 and remain optimistic that he can recapture some of his previous magic... in 2010.

I don't think the Phillies can afford to anoint a "closer" given the struggles of all of the back-of-the-bullpen guys (including nominal New Closer Ryan Madson). They need to play matchups, and with Scott Eyre's appearance in the ninth inning of Game Four versus Colorado, we might be getting a sense that Charlie Manuel intends to do just that.

2) From afar, Cole Hamels looks like the same pitcher as last season based on his peripherals, yet his ERA is over a run worse (4.32 vs. 3.09). Have you noticed any differences between the 2008 and 2009 versions of Hamels that would help explain his rise in ERA?

It's mostly been rotten luck, like you implied. He's still missing bats, he's not walking anyone, but his BABIP is appreciably worse than in 2008, when it was abnormally low. Part of the explanation might rest on the hangover from last season, when he threw a combined 262.1 innings between the regular and postseason, nearly 80 innings more than his previous season high. He's still capable of dominance, but now we're taking it on a game-by-game basis, rather than expecting brilliant outings every night.

Also, in case people forget: Hamels is just 25 years old! He's still a young pitcher, still learning on the job.

3) Since it appears Joe Mauer will win his first MVP award this season, does Chase Utley assume the mantle of "best player without an MVP" or "player better than MVP-winning teammates, yet without an MVP"?

I guess you could say Derek Jeter, if you wanted to acknowledge him in an Al Pacino "Scent of a Woman" way. But yeah, you're generally right on. Chase Utley inhabits that weird limbo where he's widely acknowledged and appreciated for his greatness, but he never had and may never have that one eye-popping season that makes the awards voters take notice. If he ever pops 40 homers, or hits .340, we might have something, but as it is I think we're just going to have to enjoy they guy as he somewhat quietly continues his Hall of Fame level career. That said, he's the best player on the Phillies, has been for several years, and it's not really even close. Season to season, he's pretty consistently the 3rd to 6th best player in the National League.

Continue reading this post »

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A Brief Look At The Phillies

Please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge.

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge.

NLCS: Phillies vs. Dodgers
Game 1   
Thu   
Dodger Stadium 5:07pm
Game 2   
Fri   
Dodger Stadium 1:07pm
Game 3 Sun Citizens Bank Park  
5:07pm
Game 4 Mon Citizens Bank Park 5:07pm
Game 5*   
Oct 21   
Citizens Bank Park
5:07pm
Game 6*   
Oct 23   
Dodger Stadium 5:07pm
Game 7*   
Oct 24   
Dodger Stadium 5:07pm
*if necessary All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

I can still remember the sick feeling in the pit of my stomach as Matt Stairs' mammoth home run sucked the air out of Dodger Stadium in Game 4 of last year's NLCS.  There are so many painful memories of that series:  the Furcal error in Game 1, the sure Manny Ramirez home run that somehow was hit to the only part of the park it wouldn't have been a home run, the Chad Billingsley performances that we still have to hear about to this day, the Victorino laser beam home run that may have been eight feet off the ground during it's entire flight, the foul popout to end the series just like Thurman Munson squeezing the final out of the 1978 World Series at Dodger Stadium.  A new year, however, brings a new opportunity, so with the NLCS rematch set to begin tomorrow, here are a few notes heading into the series:

Cole Hamels is the same pitcher as last season

On first glance, it may seem like Phillies' pitcher Cole Hamels is having a down year.  After all, his ERA is up over a run from last season, from 3.09 to 4.32.  However, his peripherals are nearly identical to last season:

Year HR% UIBB% K% LD% GB% FIP x-FIP ERA BABIP
2008 3.07% 5.04% 21.47% 21.8% 39.5% 3.70 3.78 3.09 .262
2009 2.95% 4.79% 20.64% 20.8% 40.4% 3.71 3.75 4.32 .321

Hamels has pitched basically the same in both years, yet as we can see by his batting average on balls in play, he has been less fortunate this season, and as a result his ERA has skyrocketed.  The truth about Hamels is that he's probably somewhere in between an unstoppable super ace and a struggling pitcher.  But, he's the same pitcher as last year, fundamentally, so if you think he's not capable of reeling off another amazing October run, think again.

Phillies against LHP will be a factor

Much has been made about the Dodgers have the left-handed pitching to combat the Phillies' lineup.  Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez are forces to contend with from the left side of home plate, as are switch-hitters Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino at the top of the lineup.  Conventional baseball wisdom suggests that the Dodgers and their southpaw pitchers would have an advantage, but the Phillies have performed quite well against lefties this season.  David S. Cohen of The Good Phight tackled the issue yesterday:

Yes, the Phillies lefties do worse against lefthanded pitching, but only going from an .814 OPS against righties to a .793 OPS against lefties.  The big difference is that the Phillies righties do much better against lefthanded pitching, going from a .717 OPS against righties to a .783 OPS against lefties.

And, measured against the rest of the league, the Phillies here are at a huge advantage.  The Phillies' lefties sOPS+ (measure of how good the team's OPS is against the league for this split, with 100+ being better and below 100 being worse) is 108 against righties but goes up to 125 against lefties.  The team's righties sOPS+ goes from 98 against righties to 102 against lefties.

It's true: Utley, Ibanez, and Victorino all hit better against lefties than righties.  Rollins has hit worse against LHP this season, but is slightly better in his career.  To me, the slew of Dodger lefties matter for one reason: Ryan Howard.  Howard against RHP is the best hitter in the National League (.319/.395/.691 this year, .307/.409/.661 career), but against LHP he becomes invisible (.207/.298/.356 in 2009, .226/.310/.444 career).  Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf, Hong-Chih Kuo, and George Sherrill will play a huge role in attempting to shut Howard down.

As for the rest of the lefties in the Phillies' lineup, I have to believe the Dodger lefties are good enough to get them out.  Left-handed batters have hit just .193/.268/.317 against Dodger southpaws, the fourth best sOPS+ in the league.  Here is how the Phillies' lefties have fared against the top NL lefty squads this season:

LHP Against LHB, 2009
vs MLB LHB vs Phillies LHB
Team BA/OBP/SLG OPS BA/OBP/SLG OPS
Cardinals .170/.244/.213 .457 .273/..385/.273 .657
Reds .178/.255/.240 .494 .211/.286/.579 .865
Braves .203/.267/.304 .571 .191/.283/.340 .623
Dodgers .193/.268/.317 .585 .189/.254/.358 .613

Teams whose left-handed pitchers have done the best against the league's lefty batters have also done well against the Phillies.  A couple of home runs off Danny Herrera inflated the Phillies' LHB OPS off the Reds, but I'm going out on a limb saying the Dodgers possess better LHP options than that.  Dodger lefthanders have struck out an MLB-best 32.5% of left-handed batters this season.

Struggling shortstops may be the key to the series

Any time a regular player has an on-base percentage below .300, it's a cause for concern.  Jimmy Rollins has a .296 OBP this season, yet there he is at the top of the Philadelphia lineup, game after game.  However, he is still having a good season.  His BABIP is just .251 this season, after fluctuating between .281 and .309 over the last six years, suggesting some bad luck.

The Hardball Times features a stat called PrOPS, which is short for "Predicted OPS."  They describe it thusly:

PrOPS stands for "Predicted OPS." It was developed by J.C. Bradbury amd introduced in this article. PrOPS isn't really a new stat; it's a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks.

Based on his underlying data, Rollins' prOPS this season is .783 (.290/.331/.452), which is right in line with his career:

Year prOPS Actual OPS
2004 .769 .803
2005 .767 .770
2006 .820 .811
2007 .831 .875
2008 .816 .786
2009 .783 .719

Rollins is still a force to be reckoned with, despite his low OBP.

As for Rafael Furcal, a healthy back has made him a force to be reckoned with at the top of the lineup, which shifts the Dodger offense into a higher gear.  Furcal hit .330/400/.491 since the beginning of September, but more importantly he was six for seven in stolen base attempts.  Furcal has had the green light to run all season, but only attempted 11 steals in the first five months of the season.  That he is on the move again suggests he finally feels healthy, a great sign for the Dodgers.  Furcal hit .500/.500/.667 in the NLDS against the Cardinals.

Brad Lidge is improving, but still struggling

Lidge, one year removed from a "perfect" season (no blown saves in 2008), is having quite the imperfect season in 2009.  This year he has blown a whopping 11 saves, including two to the Dodgers back in June on back-to-back days.  He has been consistent in his struggling, but a look at the underlying data suggests some improvement later in the season:

Month IP BS ERA FIP
April 8.2 1 7.27 6.96
May 14.2 3 7.98 5.33
June 4.0 2 6.75 8.40
July 10.2 0 5.91 5.40
August 10.2 3 6.75 4.74
Sept/Oct    10.0 2 8.10 3.35
2009 Totals    58.2 11 7.21 5.35

Even as his FIP improved  into acceptable levels later in the season, he still struggled, blowing five saves over the final two months.  He had two saves in the division series, but he also walked two of the six batters he faced.  On the season, Lidge has walked 5.22 batters per nine innings, so the key for the Dodgers will be patience and discipline.  Not that I would ever want the Phillies to have a lead, but if Lidge enters the game with a one-run lead the Dodgers will take those odds.

Who says voodoo dolls don't work?

Since July 1, including the postseason, Matt Stairs has four hits in 50 at-bats, and is hitting .080/.281/.240.

Just like the NLDS with the Cardinals, this NLCS is a closely-matched series between two very good teams.  I anticipate a good series, and by "good" I mean "the Dodgers will win in six."

62 comments  |  1 recs |

NLCS Advance Scouting Game Chat

It will be cold again tonight in Denver

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

It will be cold again tonight in Denver

The best part of yesterday's snowout in Colorado, for Dodgers' fans, was that it allowed the top starters for both the Phillies and Rockies to pitch Monday in Game 4 on regular rest.  With the NLCS starting Thursday at Dodger Stadium, that means no Ubaldo Jimenez or Cliff Lee in Game 1, and if one were to pitch in Game 2 it would be on short rest. Neither Lee nor Jimenez has ever pitched on three days rest in their careers.

If this division series goes five games, that will likely mean no Aaron Cook or Cole Hamels as well, until at least Game 3 of the NLCS.

In other words, it doesn't really matter who wins tonight, but the other team needs to win tomorrow.

Here are the lineups:

Phillies Rockies
SS Rollins LF Gonzalez
CF Victorino       
CF Fowler
2B Utley 1B Helton
1B Howard SS Tulowitzki
RF Werth C Torrealba
LF Ibañez 3B Atkins
3B Feliz RF Spilborghs   
C Ruiz 2B Barmes
P Happ P Hammel    

TV: TBS (although it may start on TNT)

Box Score | Baseball Reference Preview | Gameday

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Southern California Dreaming

Former Dodger Mike Scioscia has reason to smile, as his Angels advanced to the ALCS for the third time in his 10 seasons as manager.

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Former Dodger Mike Scioscia has reason to smile, as his Angels advanced to the ALCS for the third time in his 10 seasons as manager.

The Angels completed their sweep of the Red Sox today to advance to the ALCS.  The Angels were down 5-2 in the eighth inning, and proceeded to score two in the eighth and three in the ninth inning to complete an improbable 7-6 comeback win.  Vladimir Guerrero, who hit .400 in the series, had the two-out, two-run single off Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth to give the Angels their first lead of the game.  Papelbon, who had never given up a run in 26 career postseason innings, gave up two inherited runs in the eighth, and all three runs in the ninth to take the loss.

This marks the first time that both the Dodgers and Angels are in their respective league championship series in the same season.  Southern California has never been closer to a freeway series.

Now, we need to root for the Twins to win three straight against the Yankees, for this reason:  Friday has two games on the MLB schedule, Game 1 of the ALCS and Game 2 of the NLCS.  If the Yankees win, they will host the first two games of the ALCS, and would almost certainly take the prime time slot on Friday, leaving the day game to Dodger Stadium, although there is a good chance the time slots have already been determined no matter what.  If you look at TV listings for Friday, TBS has blocked off the 1:30pm slot for NLCS Game 2 (thanks to BHSportsGuy for the tip).

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A Brief Look At The Cardinals

Matt Holliday really, really likes playing in the National League

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Matt Holliday really, really likes playing in the National League

NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1 Wed Dodger Stadium   
6:37pm
Game 2 Thu Dodger Stadium likely 3:07pm
Game 3 Sat Busch Stadium 3:07pm
Game 4* Sun Busch Stadium TBD
Game 5*   
Oct 13   
Dodger Stadium TBD
*if necessary All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

Here is a brief first impression of the St. Louis Cardinals, who will travel to Dodger Stadium to start the division series on Wednesday.

The Cardinals can't hit left-handed pitching

On the season, the Cardinals had the worst OPS in all of baseball against southpaws, hitting .234/.312/.363.  However, back in July they bolstered their roster by adding right-handed hitters Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo.  They have helped, but this is still a weakness to exploit.  July 24 was Holliday's first game in Cardinal Red, and from that day forward, the club hit .250/.324/.374 against lefties.

With Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw starting in the first two games of the series, and Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill waiting to drop the hammer in the later innings, look for the Dodger lefties make a huge impact in this series.

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are really, really good

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, who will likely each finish in the top three in National League Cy Young voting, have started a total of 62 games.  The Cardinals have won 41 of those games.  Carpenter led the National League in ERA with a 2.24 mark, and Wainwright wasn't far behind at 2.63.  They were sixth and seventh in the NL in x-FIP, at 3.46 and 3.45, respectively. Both were in the top ten in baseball in innings per start, at 6.9 each.

Carpenter has pitched seven innings or longer in 18 of 28 starts, and gave up more than three runs in a game just three times all season.  He's also a control artist, having walked more than two batters only thrice this year.  Wainwright pitched seven innings or more in 21 of 34 starts, and allowed more than three runs only seven times.

Don't forget about Joel Pineiro

Cardinals' pitching coach Dave Duncan should bottle whatever magic potion he used on Joel Pineiro, because Pineiro has turned in the finest season of his career.  Pineiro doesn't strike out anyone -- his 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings is 86th among 87 MLB pitchers who qualified for the ERA title -- but he does just about everything else well.

Pineiro led baseball with an absurdly low 1.12 walks per nine innings, and his rate of 0.43 home runs per nine is second in baseball.  Bad news for Dodger fans is that number one in homers allowed per nine innings is Carpenter, at 0.33.  I would really love to explain Pineiro's success as luck or a fluke, but his x-FIP is an impressive 3.73, good for 10th in the National League, giving the Cardinals three starters with a better x-FIP than the Dodger-best 3.94 of Clayton Kershaw.

Outside of the big two, this lineup can be pitched to

Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, and will provide a steady dose of anxiety for Dodger fans this entire series.  Matt Holliday has been superb since coming back to the National League.  These two we know about, with their .451 and .421 wOBA, respectively.  However, the rest of the lineup features no real threat.  Nobody else features an OPS+ above 105, and the next highest wOBA on the team are Julio Lugo at .347 (he's at .339 on the season including his Boston numbers), and Yadier Molina and Ryan Ludwick at .337 each, barely above league average.  I realize the same can be said about the Dodger lineup, but color me unimpressed by anyone outside the 3-4 spots in red.  If the situation comes up again where Hong Chih-Kuo or another Dodger pitcher needs to walk both Pujols and Holliday to retire an inferior hitter, sign me up for another strikeout of Ludwick or Rick Ankiel, or someone similar.

Rick Ankiel is Jeff Francoeur with a better backstory

I liked Rick Ankiel the pitcher.  I was sad when he lost the ability to throw strikes.  I loved the fact that he was able to make it back to the majors as a position player.  It was a great, feel good story for a while.  But it's over.  Ankiel is hitting .231/.283/.387 this season.  Rookie Colby Rasmus, meanwhile, is hitting .253/.308/.411.  Plus/minus rates them about even defensively (-1 for Ankiel, -2 for Rasmus in about double the innings), while Ultimate Zone Rating shows a wider gap (Rasmus at +11.2 UZR/150, Ankiel at -10.1).  St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz was a guest on Sunday's postgame DodgerTalk on KABC, and he mentioned the Cardinals might consider starting Ankiel against the Dodgers' two lefty starting pitchers in the first two games (both Ankiel and Rasmus bat from the left side), because the club feels Ankiel hits lefties better.  A closer look at the numbers reveals a reason:

Player PA BA/OBP/SLG BABIP
Ankiel 98 .234/.265/.298 .338
Rasmus     113 .163/.223/.260 .189

It seems to me the difference in their performance against lefties can be explained by luck, as Rasmus' batting average on balls in play is remarkably low.  The bottom line is that Ankiel is a replacement level player (at 0.0 Wins Above Replacement), and any time he takes away from Rasmus this series is great news for the Dodgers.

**********

Rosters don't have to be submitted until 10am on Wednesday, but it appears the Cardinals will carry 12 pitchers, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Viva El Birdos is the Cardinals' blog on SB Nation.  Be sure to check their site for in-depth analysis of the Cardinals.  For instance, here is a thorough review by chuckb of the most valuable Cardinals in 2009.

This series will be close, and as we have seen in previous years, the results of the series can change at the drop of a hat.  A grand slam here, a throwing error there, and the series changes direction in a heartbeat.

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The Climb Of The Rockies

Troy Tulowitzki has added flight to his powers, leading the Rockies on an incredible run for nearly three months.

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Troy Tulowitzki has added flight to his powers, leading the Rockies on an incredible run for nearly three months.

I don't know if you've heard, but a team from Denver has made quite a run to insert itself into the NL West race.  After falling a season-low 15½ games behind the Dodgers on June 3, the Rockies have simply been the best team in baseball.  They are 51-22 during that time, and have cut that division lead to three games, heading into a three-game series against the Dodgers beginning today.

How have the Rockies done it?  Here are a few big reasons:

1) Troy Tulowitzki, MVP

After play on June 3, the Rockies' 24-year old shortstop was struggling, hitting .218/.309/.382, with just five home runs and 16 RBI.  Since then, however, he is hitting .311/.395/.625, with 18 dingers and 51 runs batted in.  The best shortstop in the division has emerged into the player the rest of us in the NL West feared he would be.

2) Ubaldo Is The Man

Actually, Ubaldo Jimenez improved long before Jim Tracy arrived.  The Dodgers hammered him in back to back starts in April.  Since then, however, Jimenez has pitched like an ace, going 11-6 with a 2.84 ERA over 22 starts.  Since May 1, Jimenez has thrown 155.1 innings, averaging just over seven innings per start.  Only Cliff Lee (160.0) has more innings pitched during that time.

3) Better Starting Pitching

Jimenez hasn't been the only Rockies' starter to improve over the course of the season.  On the whole, the starters since June 3 have improved by leaps and bounds:

Dates Starts QS 6+ Inn 7+ Inn IP H ER BB/9 K/9 ERA WHIP
April 6 - June 3 52 27 (52%) 32 (62%) 17 (33%) 299.1 (5.76 per) 321 154 3.58 6.25 4.63 1.470
June 4 - present   73 48 (66%) 55 (75%) 31 (42%) 461.0 (6.32 per) 451 190 2.73 6.66 3.71 1.282

Jason Marquis has also improved from a 3.93 ERA through June 3, to a 3.16 ERA afterward.

4) Don't Forget The Bullpen

Prior to June 3, the Rockies' relievers had an ERA of an even 5.00, and a WHIP of 1.527.  Since then, the bullpen has improved to a 4.19 ERA and 1.262 WHIP.  Rafael Betancourt, acquired from Cleveland on July 23, has been their (better) version of George Sherrill, with no runs allowed in 11.2 innings, allowing nine base runners while striking out 14.

5) Young Outfield Improvement

One of the first roster moves made after Clint Hurdle was fired was to recall Carlos Gonzalez from Triple A Colorado Springs.  All he has done with the big club is hit .287/.356/.539, with a .383 wOBA.  In addition, Dexter Fowler has improved from .255/.342/.388 under Hurdle to .282/.394/.446 under Jim Tracy.

The Rockies are a fun team for a fan base to root for, as they are largely homegrown.  The ten players with the most plate appearances on the club were all drafted by the club, and 13 players on the current 25-man roster were drafted or signed internationally by Colorado.

**********

The Dodgers have won 10 of 12 games so far this season against the Rockies, losing only the two games started by Jason Marquis:

April 17 - @Dodgers 4, Rockies 3

April 18 - @Dodgers 9, Rockies 5

April 19 - @Dodgers 14, Rockies 2

April 24 - Dodgers 6, @Rockies 5

April 25 - Dodgers 6, @Rockies 5

April 26 - @Rockies 10, Dodgers 4

May 25 - Dodgers 16, @Rockies 6

May 26 - Dodgers 7, @Rockies 1

May 27 - Dodgers 8, @Rockies 6

June 29 - @Dodgers 4, Rockies 2

June 30 - Rockies 3, @Dodgers 0

July 1 - @Dodgers 1, Rockies 0

**********

Luckily for the Dodgers, they won't have to face Jimenez or their nemesis, Marquis this series.

Pitching Probables

TuesdayClayton Kershaw (8-7, 3.19 FIP) vs. Jason Hammel (8-7, 3.67 FIP), 5:40pm, KCAL

WednesdayRandy Wolf (8-6, 3.97 FIP) vs. Josh Fogg (0-1, 4.33 FIP), 5:40pm, Prime Ticket

ThursdayVicente Padilla (8-6, 4.93 FIP) vs. Jorge de la Rosa (12-8, 4.07 FIP), 12:10pm, Prime Ticket

This should be a fun series.  Let's get it on!

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Dodgers Beginning To Feel The Heat

The Rockies are a little too close for comfort for the Dodgers' tastes.

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

The Rockies are a little too close for comfort for the Dodgers' tastes.

The Dodgers are set to play the Rockies starting tomorrow night in Denver.  The Rockies were down 15½ games at the end of play on June 3, but have gone 50-22 since, a .694 clip to close the gap to 3½ games. Here is a brief look at how the top two teams in the NL West match up:

Dodgers Team Rockies
74-51, 1st in NL Record 70-54, 4th in NL
76-49, 1st in NL Pythag Record 70-54, 3rd in NL
+125, 1st in NL Run Differential +83, 3rd in NL
4.82, 4th in NL Runs/Gm 5.10, 2nd in NL
.332, 5th in NL wOBA .341, 2nd in NL
3.82, 2nd in NL Runs Allowed 4.43, 6th in NL
3.86, 3rd in NL FIP 3.96, 5th in NL
.720, 1st in NL Def Efficiency .686, 6th in NL

The Rockies finish their four-game series against the Giants tonight, with Jason Marquis facing Barry Zito.  Marquis pitching tonight means he won't pitch against the Dodgers this series.  Marquis is the only Rockies' pitcher to beat the Dodgers this year, as the Dodgers have won 10 of 12 against Colorado.

Just as it was foolish for me to call the division race over back in June, it is also foolish to call the Rockies' run one of the greatest comebacks of all time, because they haven't comeback from anything yet.  Last time I checked, three or four games back is not tied, nor is it leading the division.  Sure, the Rockies could get even closer with a series win, and even pull even with a sweep, but as the great Neil McCauley once said:

There is a flip side to that coin. What if you do got me boxed in and I gotta put you down? Cause no matter what, you will not get in my way. We've been face to face, yeah. But I will not hesitate. Not for a second.

Its time for the Dodgers to not hesitate, and put the Rockies down.  Yes, I'm aware McCauley died at the end of Heat, but the Dodgers are disciplined enough not to put themselves in danger by going out of their way to punish Vicente Padilla should he cause trouble.  Padilla is no Waingro.

**********

Giants vs. Rockies, 5:40pm:  Baseball Reference Preview | Gameday

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Hugging Haren, Reynolds: Diamondbacks In The Rough

Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton have been the Diamonbacks' offense this season.  Luckily for the Dodgers, Upton is currently on the disabled list and will miss this series.

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton have been the Diamonbacks' offense this season. Luckily for the Dodgers, Upton is currently on the disabled list and will miss this series.

What the hell happened to the Diamondbacks? Coming into the season, they were supposed to contend with the Dodgers in the National League West.  However, not much has gone right for them this year.  Brandon Webb has been out almost the entire year, and his return for 2010 is uncertain at this point.  Short Chris Young tangoed with the Mendoza Line and tripped, hitting .197/.297/.359 before being optioned to Triple A on Monday.  Manager Bob Melvin was dispatched in May.  However, there have been some bright spots for Arizona, currently 17 games out heading into this weekend's three game series with the Dodgers.

Justin Upton made a compelling case for best young player in the division, as the 21-year old has hit .301/.374/.541 this season, with a 131 OPS+ and a .396 wOBA.  Luckily for the Dodgers, they won't have to face Upton this weekend, as he is on the disabled list with a strained right oblique.

The Diamonback currently having the most surprising breakout season is third baseman Mark Reynolds.  The first thing that usually comes to mind regarding Reynolds is the strikeout.  No doubt, you will hear Vin Scully talking about Reynolds "paying the price" quite often over the three game series.  Reynolds already has the MLB record with 204 strikeouts, set last season.  He is on pace to shatter that record this season, with 155 punchouts already.  However, even with all those Ks, Reynolds has had an awesome season.  He is hitting .284/.374/.600 with 36 home runs and a .414 wOBA.  He even has 21 steals this season.

Dan Haren has quietly put together an outstanding season.  He has the lowest WHIP in baseball at 0.888, and is sixth in the National League in Fielding Independent Pitching with a 3.04 FIP.  That his record is only 11-7 seems criminal.  However, did you know how many home runs he gave up in 2005?  26.

With Haren scheduled to pitch tonight, and Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals set to pitch at Dodger Stadium Monday, the Dodgers will have faced four of the top six NL FIP leaders over an eight-game stretch:  Javier Vazquez last Sunday (2.63 FIP, 2nd), Tim Lincecum Wednesday (1.96, 1st), Haren (3.04, 6th), and Carpenter (2.85, 3rd).

Doug Davis is scheduled to pitch on Saturday, unless of course he is no longer on the Diamondbacks.  Davis was claimed on waivers by the Brewers on Wednesday, according to Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman, meaning the clubs have 48 hours to work out a deal.  However, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reported that a deal is unlikely between the two clubs.

When Chris Young was optioned to Triple A, Arizona called up Trent Oeltjen, who is essentially the Australian Mitch Jones.  He spent nine years down under in the minor leagues, but the 26-year old has finally hit the big time. The early results have been fantastic, as Oeltjen has three home runs in six games, hitting .414/.414/.862 so far.  Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic profiled Oeltjen, who seems like a fan favorite:

People who know him say his attitude never changed. The smile never went away. In Reno, where Oeltjen hit .300 with 51 extra-base hits and became known for signing autographs nonstop, he was hugely popular.

"He is, without a doubt, the most popular minor league player I have ever seen," said Reno radio announcer Ryan Radtke, in his seventh season in baseball. "People absolutely love him."

Despite their struggles, Arizona has played well over the last month or so, winning 21 of their last 35 games.  After July 3, Arizona is tied with Colorado for the best record in the division.

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AZ Snake Pit is the excellent Diamondbacks blog on SB Nation.  Here are some recent insights from their point of view:

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The Dodgers have won six of the eight contests with Arizona this season, including taking two of three games in Arizona during the season's opening weekend:

April 10:  @Diamondbacks 9, Dodgers 4

April 11:  Dodgers 11, @Diamondbacks 2

April 12:  Dodgers 3, @Diamondbacks 1

May 4:  @Dodgers 7, Diamondbacks 2

May 5:  @Dodgers 3, Diamondbacks 1

June 1:  Diamondbacks 3, @Dodgers 2

June 2:  @Dodgers 6, Diamondbacks 5

June 3:  @Dodgers 1, Diamondbacks 0

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2009 Diamondbacks
Record 52-63, 4th NL West, 17 GB
Pythag Record   
54-61 (10th in NL)
Runs Scored 4.55/gm (6th in NL)
wOBA .330 (6th in NL)
Runs Allowed 4.76/gm (12th in NL)
FIP 4.03 (6th in NL)
Defensive Efficiency .685 (14th in NL)

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Pitching Probables (assuming Doug Davis doesn't become a Brewer):

Friday  @ 6:40pmClayton Kershaw (8-6, 3.22 FIP) vs. Dan Haren (11-7, 3.04 FIP)

Saturday @ 5:10pmHiroki Kuroda (5-5, 3.49 FIP) vs. Doug Davis (7-10, 4.54 FIP)

Sunday @ 1:10pmRandy Wolf (6-6, 4.07 FIP) vs. Yusmeiro Petit (2-6, 5.35 FIP)

All three games are on KCAL this weekend, so I apologize to every Dodger fan out of the area who has to listen to Daron Sutton to get their Dodger fix.

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