More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

"Dude, we're so alike! Our career similarity score is 934, which is my seventh-best comparison and your tenth-best!" - Matt Kemp on discovering Similarity Scores (AP Photo/Gus Ruelas)

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Before there were such things as CHONE, Pecota, and Bill James' annual projection for players, there was a charming little thing called Similarity Scores, also created by Bill James.  If you look at baseball-reference.com, you will find a description of the formula used for similarity scores and a credit to James' book The Politics of Glory; however, I first read about them in The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1986, in which he introduced the concept, having worked on it over the past year.  This was also the book that introduced me to the term sabermetrics, among other things.

I stumbled across The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1986 while looking in a book store for a book that contained all the major league statistics for the 1985 season (no baseball-reference.com in those days), which I needed to prepare for a Strat-O-Matic baseball draft.  (I went with a HR friendly ballpark and loaded up on power, defense be damned, and drafted Pedro Guerrero #1 at 3B/1B.)  The book was an eye-opener in many ways and made me aware that there were a lot of ways to look at baseball and baseball statistics than just the traditional versions.  I wonder if I would have even gravitated toward the baseball blogs that I enjoy so much today had I never crossed paths with James' Abstract. By the way, in the Dodgers chapter, James defends Lasorda's decision to pitch to Jack Clark.

If you didn't read the formula in the link, the brief version is that 1000 is a perfect match between two players.  Points are then deducted from there based on differences in position, a bunch of counting statistics (e.g., hits) and a few ratios (e.g., batting average, ERA).  Obviously, the higher the number, the better the match.

At baseball-reference.com, they calcluate the similarity scores on each player's page, giving the top-10 career similarities, plus the top-10 at each age of the player's career, near the bottom of the page.  For example, if you scroll toward the bottom of ex-Dodger Shawn Green's player page, you'll find that his number one match in career similarity score is ex-Dodger Reggie Smith at 945.  This is what similarity scores (using this formula) seem to work best for, evaluating player production over an entire career, which is good for things like Hall of Fame arguments.  You'll also see that at age 29, after his last great season (2002), the 29-year old he was most similar to was Dale Murphy with a similarity score of 942.

Similarity scores don't make for a particularly great projection system, because, among other things, the stats used aren't the best for that purpose and the similarities don't account for trends (i.e., improving or not), but I'd bet that Bill James used similarity studies with different stats in play to fine tune his projection system.  However, that doesn't stop the age-based similarity score summaries at baseball-reference.com from being a lot of fun to peruse and to compare current players to players throughout baseball history and see how that current player might turn out.  This turns out to be a fine time to do such a thing because a) the season is over and the hot stove is still thawing out, and b) baseball-reference.com just updated them all to include the 2009 season data.

After the jump are similarity score summaries for the selected returning Dodger players at their 2009-season age.  These show the top ten similar players at the same age - some of the names may surprise you:

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Joe Torre relaxes as he realizes the Rockies will finally beat the Dodgers at something in 2009

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The Baseball Writers Association of America will announce the managers of the year today at 11am, and former Dodger manager Jim Tracy is the heavy favorite to walk away with NL honors.  The manager of the year award has been awarded in each league since 1983.  Tommy Lasorda is the only Dodger skipper to take home the hardware, winning in both 1983 and 1988.  Here is a review of how the Dodgers have finished in the 26-year history of the award:

*Award Share is the total points as a percentage of possible points.  In 1983, each ballot just named one manager.  From 1984 to present, each ballot (two per team in league) is three deep, with points awarded on a 5-3-1 basis.

**Bill Russell took over for Tommy Lasorda on June 25, 1996 after Lasorda had a heart attack the previous day.

Joe Torre is expected to get some second and/or third place votes, which would make this just the third time that the Dodgers have had a manager appear on two straight ballots (Lasorda in 1990-1991, and Tracy in 2001-2002 -- four years which produced zero playoff appearances).

UPDATE:  Torre finished 3rd, behind Tracy and Tony LaRussa.  Torre received one first place vote, seven second place votes, and seven third place votes.

Tracy, who took over Rockies' managerial duties after Clint Hurdle's 18-28 start, guided Colorado to a 74-42 record and a berth in the playoffs by winning the wild card.  Only the Yankees, at 76-39, had a better record than the Rockies since Tracy assumed the position.

Would this be Tracy's first manager of the year award?  Yes, yes it would.  He finished 2nd, 4th and 3rd in 2001, 2002, and 2004 respectively, while with the Dodgers.

Thanks as always to the amazing Baseball-Reference.com for this information.

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez join fellow outfielder Matt Kemp as the only Dodgers projected by CHONE to have an OPS of .800 or above in 2010.

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Last month we looked at the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook.  Now, the second set of projections are in, from Sean Smith of the wonderful blog Anaheim Angels All The Way.  His full list of CHONE projections can be found here.

I added these projections to the previous Bill James projections, and also took a look back to 2009 to see how accurate last year's set of predictions were. The 2009 and 2010 CHONE projections are highlighted below.

I also threw in prOPS from The Hardball Times, short for "predicted OPS," which is "a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks," to see if there was any luck based on batted balls.

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More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Joe Torre telepathically tells Don Mattingly that he didn't have any professional managing experience before he got his first MLB managing gig.

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The topic of the moment at Dodger Thoughts is manager heir-apparent Don Mattingly and whether or not his lack of professional managing experience is an issue.  At some point it occurred to me that it would be pertinent to examine the thirty current major league managers and the experience they brought to the job when they were hired.  Perhaps this could give us an idea of how baseball general managers look at managing experience.

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More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Clayton Kershaw had a very good season in 2009, even if he didn't have the wins to show for it.

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Clayton Kershaw had a lot riding on his shoulders in 2009.  From the moment he was drafted seventh overall in 2006, the highest pick by the Dodgers in 13 years, the expectations were great for the golden left arm of the former high school teammate of Matthew Stafford in Highland Park, Texas.  Over on Dodger Thoughts, nobody wanted to jinx anything, so we began calling him The Minotaur, a mythical creature not to be believed until we saw him with our own eyes.  He made it to the big leagues in 2008, and was basically a league average starter as a 20-year old, a remarkable achievement.  Expectations were understandably quite high for Kershaw entering 2009.

The 21-year old did not disappoint.  He put up an adjusted earned run average of 149, nearly 50% better than league average.  Of the 78 starting pitchers in baseball with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, here is where Kershaw ranked:

It's hard to get much better than that.  Yet, when we glance over a little to the left on the back of his baseball card, we will see his win-loss record at a pedestrian 8-8.  Why is that?  One big reason was his high walk totals, leading to short outings:

Over his last 11 starts, Kershaw put up a 2.60 ERA while striking out 10.77 batters per nine innings, yet had no wins to show for it.  However, it wasn't all Kershaw's fault.  At Baseball Prospectus, using play-by-play data, they track a couple of stats to help determine a pitcher's expected win-loss record:

• E(W) - Expected Wins:  "Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation)."
• SNW - Support-Neutral Wins: "the pitcher's expected number of wins assuming he had league-average support."

Here are Kershaw's expected records per Baseball Prospectus:

Instead of 18-12, the Dodgers went 14-16 in Kershaw's 30 starts.  Looking back, Kershaw seemed to have his worst luck when pitching his best.  Kershaw had four of the best five starts by a Dodger in 2009, as measured by game score.  His top three starts produced zero wins:

Starting pitchers had a game score of 79 or better in 159 games this season, or 3.3% of all games.  Those pitchers were 140-3 in those games, with just 16 no-decisions.  Kershaw had three of those no-decisions.  No other pitcher in baseball had more than one.

If we lower the threshold to a game score of 70 or better -- which accounts for the top 11.4% of all MLB starts in 2009 -- Kershaw had 10 of those games, the same number as CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander.  Only four pitchers had more starts with a game score of 70 or higher.  Here are Kershaw's numbers in those 10 starts:

Those six no-decisions led baseball.  Tim Lincecum was second, with four.  The point is that Kershaw didn't have a relatively low win total just because he wasn't able to pitch deep into games.  He pitched great often enough, but just didn't get rewarded as much as he should have.

Here's hoping for better luck next year, kid.

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

about 1 month ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Ryan Howard, left, jokes with Los Angeles Dodgers' Matt Kemp during batting practice before Game 5 of the National League Championship baseball series Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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Even though 2009 brought us closer to the Freeway World Series than ever, both the Dodgers and Angels are now done for the season, watching like the rest of us as the Phillies and Yankees square off in the World Series.  This is a rematch of the 1950 Fall Classic, between Casey Stengel's Yankees and the Whiz Kid Phillies.  The Phillies, the youngest team in the league, were able to hold off a furious rally by the Brooklyn Dodgers to win their second pennant, and first in 35 seasons.

In 1950, the Dodgers lost to the Cubs on September 18 for their fourth straight defeat, and stood nine games back of the Phillies, in third place, with 17 games left to play.  The Dodgers proceeded to win their next seven games, and 12 of the next 15, heading into the final two games at Ebbets Field against Philadelphia down by just two games.  The Dodgers, who finished the season with 22 home games in their final 24 contests, won the first game 7-3.

Heading into the final Sunday, a pair of 23-year old 19-game winners faced off on the mound.  Don Newcombe started for the Dodgers, who needed to beat future Hall of Famer Robin Roberts to force a three-game playoff.  The game was a pitcher's duel, each allowing just one run through nine innings.  In the top of the tenth inning, Newcombe allowed to runners to reach base, bringing Dick Sisler to the plate.

1950 was the first year of a young announcer from Fordham, who came to the Dodgers to learn from broadcasting legend Red Barber.  Vin Scully, who was just 22 years old that year, remembered the pressure of the 1950 playoff in a broadcast earlier this year.

Sisler launched an opposite field home run off Newcombe to give the Phillies a 4-1 lead.  Roberts retired the Dodgers in the 10th inning, giving the Phillies the pennant.  Scully recalled that after that home run, he didn't think the pressure and pain of losing could get any bigger than that.  Then, as Vin does best, paused for a beat, and added, "then 1951 happened."

1950 was in the middle of the Dodgers' amazing run atop the National League.  Over an 11 year period, they either won the pennant or lost on the final day of the season in nine seasons:

The Whiz Kid Phillies got swept by the Yankees in 1950, scoring just five runs in four games.  I expect the 2009 Phillies will do better than their brethren from 59 years ago, but it still won't be enough.  Yankees in six.

Thanks to Suite101.com, Philly.com, and Wikipedia for info

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Clayton Kershaw's left arm personifies the Dodgers' immediate future

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Yesterday we took a look at the offensive projections for the 2010 Dodgers, thanks to the Bill James Handbook (available November 1).  Today we look at the pitching staff.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times.  In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

In addition, there were some 2010 projections for other Dodgers.

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

The next three years should be sweet for the dynamic duo of Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, and the Dodgers

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Losing to the same team in the playoffs for two years in a row is awful.  It takes a psychological toll, at least on the fans, that the losing team can't get over the hump.  The Dodgers lost to the Phillies in last year's NLCS in five games.  This year they improved by 11 wins in the regular season, gained home field advantage in the playoffs, and the result was the same.  Phillies.  Five games.  Thanks for playing.

It is times like these that it is best to take a step back to take the long view of the situation.  Rather than focus on the failure of losing twice to the Phillies, it is important to note just what the Dodgers have accomplished in these last two years.  They are a young, growing team, that had the best record in the National League this season.  Rather than focus energy on what roster moves need to be made to get past the Philadelphia road block, a better option would be to look at the Phillies themselves, and the parallels with this Dodger team.

From 2007 to 2009, the Phillies have led the National League with 274 wins, have won three straight division titles, one World Series, and are back this year to defend their crown.  Here is a look at the nucleus of those teams, and their ages during this great run:

The Phillies have really done well to capitalize on the prime years of their best players.  The Dodgers have a window with the current nucleus until roughly 2012, the final year of arbitration eligibility for six of their main cogs (plus Jonathan Broxton can become a free agent after 2011).  Let's take a look at the ages of the Dodgers' best players for the next three years, to compare it to the Phillies:

That is a strong core to build around.  If the Dodgers can take advantage of the prime seasons of their young stars, like the Phillies did, they will be in great shape.  The Phillies are still going to be good next season.  But, as many Phillies start to hit the wrong side of 30 years old, their window will close, while the younger Dodgers will keep improving.

The Phillies may have been the team of the last three years in the National League, but if you want a team for the next three, look to the Dodgers.