More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Joe Torre telepathically tells Don Mattingly that he didn't have any professional managing experience before he got his first MLB managing gig.

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The topic of the moment at Dodger Thoughts is manager heir-apparent Don Mattingly and whether or not his lack of professional managing experience is an issue.  At some point it occurred to me that it would be pertinent to examine the thirty current major league managers and the experience they brought to the job when they were hired.  Perhaps this could give us an idea of how baseball general managers look at managing experience.

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More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Clayton Kershaw had a very good season in 2009, even if he didn't have the wins to show for it.

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Clayton Kershaw had a lot riding on his shoulders in 2009.  From the moment he was drafted seventh overall in 2006, the highest pick by the Dodgers in 13 years, the expectations were great for the golden left arm of the former high school teammate of Matthew Stafford in Highland Park, Texas.  Over on Dodger Thoughts, nobody wanted to jinx anything, so we began calling him The Minotaur, a mythical creature not to be believed until we saw him with our own eyes.  He made it to the big leagues in 2008, and was basically a league average starter as a 20-year old, a remarkable achievement.  Expectations were understandably quite high for Kershaw entering 2009.

The 21-year old did not disappoint.  He put up an adjusted earned run average of 149, nearly 50% better than league average.  Of the 78 starting pitchers in baseball with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, here is where Kershaw ranked:

It's hard to get much better than that.  Yet, when we glance over a little to the left on the back of his baseball card, we will see his win-loss record at a pedestrian 8-8.  Why is that?  One big reason was his high walk totals, leading to short outings:

Over his last 11 starts, Kershaw put up a 2.60 ERA while striking out 10.77 batters per nine innings, yet had no wins to show for it.  However, it wasn't all Kershaw's fault.  At Baseball Prospectus, using play-by-play data, they track a couple of stats to help determine a pitcher's expected win-loss record:

• E(W) - Expected Wins:  "Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation)."
• SNW - Support-Neutral Wins: "the pitcher's expected number of wins assuming he had league-average support."

Here are Kershaw's expected records per Baseball Prospectus:

Instead of 18-12, the Dodgers went 14-16 in Kershaw's 30 starts.  Looking back, Kershaw seemed to have his worst luck when pitching his best.  Kershaw had four of the best five starts by a Dodger in 2009, as measured by game score.  His top three starts produced zero wins:

Starting pitchers had a game score of 79 or better in 159 games this season, or 3.3% of all games.  Those pitchers were 140-3 in those games, with just 16 no-decisions.  Kershaw had three of those no-decisions.  No other pitcher in baseball had more than one.

If we lower the threshold to a game score of 70 or better -- which accounts for the top 11.4% of all MLB starts in 2009 -- Kershaw had 10 of those games, the same number as CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander.  Only four pitchers had more starts with a game score of 70 or higher.  Here are Kershaw's numbers in those 10 starts:

Those six no-decisions led baseball.  Tim Lincecum was second, with four.  The point is that Kershaw didn't have a relatively low win total just because he wasn't able to pitch deep into games.  He pitched great often enough, but just didn't get rewarded as much as he should have.

Here's hoping for better luck next year, kid.

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

17 days ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Ryan Howard, left, jokes with Los Angeles Dodgers' Matt Kemp during batting practice before Game 5 of the National League Championship baseball series Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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Even though 2009 brought us closer to the Freeway World Series than ever, both the Dodgers and Angels are now done for the season, watching like the rest of us as the Phillies and Yankees square off in the World Series.  This is a rematch of the 1950 Fall Classic, between Casey Stengel's Yankees and the Whiz Kid Phillies.  The Phillies, the youngest team in the league, were able to hold off a furious rally by the Brooklyn Dodgers to win their second pennant, and first in 35 seasons.

In 1950, the Dodgers lost to the Cubs on September 18 for their fourth straight defeat, and stood nine games back of the Phillies, in third place, with 17 games left to play.  The Dodgers proceeded to win their next seven games, and 12 of the next 15, heading into the final two games at Ebbets Field against Philadelphia down by just two games.  The Dodgers, who finished the season with 22 home games in their final 24 contests, won the first game 7-3.

Heading into the final Sunday, a pair of 23-year old 19-game winners faced off on the mound.  Don Newcombe started for the Dodgers, who needed to beat future Hall of Famer Robin Roberts to force a three-game playoff.  The game was a pitcher's duel, each allowing just one run through nine innings.  In the top of the tenth inning, Newcombe allowed to runners to reach base, bringing Dick Sisler to the plate.

1950 was the first year of a young announcer from Fordham, who came to the Dodgers to learn from broadcasting legend Red Barber.  Vin Scully, who was just 22 years old that year, remembered the pressure of the 1950 playoff in a broadcast earlier this year.

Sisler launched an opposite field home run off Newcombe to give the Phillies a 4-1 lead.  Roberts retired the Dodgers in the 10th inning, giving the Phillies the pennant.  Scully recalled that after that home run, he didn't think the pressure and pain of losing could get any bigger than that.  Then, as Vin does best, paused for a beat, and added, "then 1951 happened."

1950 was in the middle of the Dodgers' amazing run atop the National League.  Over an 11 year period, they either won the pennant or lost on the final day of the season in nine seasons:

The Whiz Kid Phillies got swept by the Yankees in 1950, scoring just five runs in four games.  I expect the 2009 Phillies will do better than their brethren from 59 years ago, but it still won't be enough.  Yankees in six.

Thanks to Suite101.com, Philly.com, and Wikipedia for info

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Clayton Kershaw's left arm personifies the Dodgers' immediate future

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Yesterday we took a look at the offensive projections for the 2010 Dodgers, thanks to the Bill James Handbook (available November 1).  Today we look at the pitching staff.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times.  In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

In addition, there were some 2010 projections for other Dodgers.

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

The next three years should be sweet for the dynamic duo of Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, and the Dodgers

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Losing to the same team in the playoffs for two years in a row is awful.  It takes a psychological toll, at least on the fans, that the losing team can't get over the hump.  The Dodgers lost to the Phillies in last year's NLCS in five games.  This year they improved by 11 wins in the regular season, gained home field advantage in the playoffs, and the result was the same.  Phillies.  Five games.  Thanks for playing.

It is times like these that it is best to take a step back to take the long view of the situation.  Rather than focus on the failure of losing twice to the Phillies, it is important to note just what the Dodgers have accomplished in these last two years.  They are a young, growing team, that had the best record in the National League this season.  Rather than focus energy on what roster moves need to be made to get past the Philadelphia road block, a better option would be to look at the Phillies themselves, and the parallels with this Dodger team.

From 2007 to 2009, the Phillies have led the National League with 274 wins, have won three straight division titles, one World Series, and are back this year to defend their crown.  Here is a look at the nucleus of those teams, and their ages during this great run:

The Phillies have really done well to capitalize on the prime years of their best players.  The Dodgers have a window with the current nucleus until roughly 2012, the final year of arbitration eligibility for six of their main cogs (plus Jonathan Broxton can become a free agent after 2011).  Let's take a look at the ages of the Dodgers' best players for the next three years, to compare it to the Phillies:

That is a strong core to build around.  If the Dodgers can take advantage of the prime seasons of their young stars, like the Phillies did, they will be in great shape.  The Phillies are still going to be good next season.  But, as many Phillies start to hit the wrong side of 30 years old, their window will close, while the younger Dodgers will keep improving.

The Phillies may have been the team of the last three years in the National League, but if you want a team for the next three, look to the Dodgers.

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

The 2010 Dodger offense figures to be very similar to the 2009 offense.

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One of the ways to ease the pain of a baseball-less offseason is the annual Bill James Handbook.  The 2010 version will be released on November 1, 2010, but the fine folks at ACTA Sports provided us with an early look at the player projections.  Here's a look at the 2010 projections for the Dodgers, with a look back at how their 2009 projections fared.

I threw in prOPS from The Hardball Times, short for "predicted OPS," which is "a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks," to see if there was any luck based on batted balls.

Pitching projections will come tomorrow.

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

At this exact moment, the Dodgers still had the lead last night.

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If there is one trend this postseason, it might be the blown save.  Jonathan Broxton was the latest to fall victim to it, last night, as Jimmy Rollins smoked a two-run double to turn a potential tied series into a commanding 3-1 series lead.  But Broxton is not alone this October.  Closers have entered a playoff game in a save situation 16 times so far this offseason, and six times they have blown the lead, a stark contrast to last season:

In addition to Broxton, the blown saves are spread out among six of the eight playoff teams.  Alex Rodriguez is responsible for two of them, with game-tying home runs in separate games off Joe Nathan and Brian Fuentes.  The Angels scored the first runs ever allowed in the postseason by Jonathan Papelbon while eliminating the Red Sox.  The Dodgers benefited from Ryan Franklin's wildness (and Matt Holliday's gaffe) in the NLDS.

Mariano Rivera is one of the two playoff closers without a blown save this year, which doesn't come as much of a surprise since his plaque in Cooperstown should probably say "greatest closer ever" or something close to that.  The only other unblemished closer this postseason has been Brad Lidge, who was easily the most blemished during the regular season, with his 11 blown saves and 7.21 ERA.

With the wound from last night's game still fresh, I don't know if this is comforting or not.  But just know that Broxton isn't alone in struggling this offseason.  Misery has plenty of company.

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Whatever "it" is, Hiroki Kuroda just didn't have it last night

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"Boy, that escalated quickly... I mean, that really got out of hand fast."

-Ron Burgundy, Anchorman

Here are a few notes about last night's game:

• Hiroki Kuroda's outing of only an inning and a third was the shortest start by a Dodger in the playoffs since John Tudor walked off the mound with an injury after getting four outs in Game 3 of the 1988 World Series, which was also played on October 18
• Kuroda's game score of 19 was the fifth worst in Dodger playoff history
• The Dodgers allowed a major league low 11 three-run home runs in the regular season, but have allowed three in three games to the Phillies in the NLCS
• Carlos Ruiz is hitting .591/.719/1.045 against the Dodgers this season, including the playoffs, in 33 plate appearances, including 10 walks and just one strikeout.  Ruiz in 2009 has hit .233/.324/.377 against everyone else
  
• The 11-0 loss matched the worst playoff loss in club history.  The Dodgers also lost Game 1 of the 1959 World Series by the same score, but went on to win the series 4-2.
• Last night was the fifth time in their postseason history that the Dodgers have given up 11 or more runs.
• Before last night, there were 20 wins by 11 runs or more in MLB playoff history that didn't end a series.  The winning team won the next game of the series 13 of 20 times.  Of all the teams that have won a playoff game by 11 or more runs, they have won that series 13 of 22 times.
  
• The Dodgers have not scored a run off a Phillies' starting pitcher for the last 15.1 innings, not since the fifth inning of Game 1
• Last night's game only counted as one win for the Phillies.  Nothing more.  In 1960 the Yankees outscored the Pirates 55 to 27 in the World Series, yet lost four games to three.

Game 3 was certainly awful for the Dodgers, but they have an immediate chance to erase that memory tonight.