Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Team Previews

Fans Demand 162 Games - Dodger / Nationals Preview


Upon receiving 34,000 tweets / emails/ googlehonks Bud Selig caved into fan pressure and has decided that the Dodgers will play their full schedule this Monday.

Don Mattingly will let Eugenio Velez manage the team, and Velez has announced that each pitcher will go one inning mainly for the amusement of the scorekeeper having to pick a winning pitcher.

The Dodgers come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the NL with two of the best players in baseball and the hottest hitter in baseball, along with the hottest pitcher in the bullpen.

Let's take a look at this team:

1st Base - Jim Loney has replaced James Loney and the difference is staggering. Combined they have an OPS+ of 110 the highest they have posted since 2007. Hold your horses, Jim Loney's triple stat line since Aug 6th, in 48 games, .373 / .436 / .640.  Good gracias that is some cool beans.

2nd Base - Career major league journeyman Jamey Carroll splits time with career minor league journeyman Justin Sellers. Carroll continues to do the one thing he can do, and that is get on base as he posted a .359 OB% leading all qualified NL 2nd baseman in this important stat. Carroll ended up with 510 plate appearances which at the age of 37 was the second most in his career. Maybe not a journey man after all?  Justin Sellers meanwhile got a few at bats and showed an excellent glove but not much of a bat. Kind of what you might expect from a future utility infielder.

SS - In Dee Gordon's first foray into the major leagues the game proved to fast for him, in his second attempt he proved to fast for the league,  leading the league with 12 steals in the month of Sept. Jose Reyes had a huge Sept to win the NL Batting Average Crown but Dee Gordon was  step for step with Reyes posting a wRC of 146 only one point behind Jose Reyes.  Dee got to that superlative Sept TSL of .372 / .398 / .451 by leading the NL in hits in Sept with 42. Defensively he is flashy but prone to make some errors, you combine Dee's offense/defense and many Dodger fans will say they have not seen as exciting a player as Dee Gordon since Matt Kemp showed up in 2006. 

3rd - Smurf miester Aaron Miles manned this spot for most of Sept as Casey Blake underwent season ending neck surgery. Russ Mitchell was available to play 3rd but Donny wanted his potent bat on the bench for when they would need a game tying home run against an elite closer. Miles ended up with 490 plate appearances, the second most in his nine year career and the most since his rookie season back in 2004. When you watch him you think he did more with those at bats but his hitting line continued to be unimpressive with a TSL of  .275 / .314 / .346. The starting 3rd baseman had 83 plate appearances in Sept, yet managed no extra base hits.  

C - Big Mama Rod Barajas rocked his way into Dodger fan hearts with 16 home runs, the second most on the team. He did this on the back of a huge August but in Sept he is struggling so expect the Dodgers to use AJ Ellis who loves Sept. For the second Sept in a row little used AJ Ellis sported an OBP over .400. For his career AJ Ellis has a a TSL in Sept of .342 / .444 / .461. 

CF - Matt Kemp had a decent year but lets face it, it was no 40/40

LF - Juan Rivera started most of the games in Sept and the waiver claim did the job by driving in 20 runs, just two behind the league leader Matt Kemp.  Juan only had an OPS with the Dodgers of .740 but it seemed like so much more. Only 11 home runs for Juan in over 500 ab's in 2011 which has to shock Dodger fans since the way they are clamoring for him to come back you'd think he'd have hit 11 home runs just with the Dodgers.

RF - Jerry Sands took over for Andre Ethier when Andre underwent season ending ego surgery and did not disappoint. Much like Dee Gordon, Sands first experience with major league pitching ended up seeing him dispatched to AAA to work on his swing. He came back and was among the league leaders in right field for the month of Sept providing the Dodgers with a little bit of everything. 

Summary - for the month of Sept the Dodgers had Matt Kemp going for the Triple Crown, Jim Loney hitting like Albert Pujols, Jerry Sands hitting like a real outfielder, and Juan Rivera not getting a lot of hits but every time he got one he was driving someone in. A far cry from the rest of the year when Matt Kemp was a one man show other then that great start Andre had to the season.

Pitching, these are the nine guys that Velez has decided will pitch, none of the main starters will be pitching.

Inning One - Dana Eveland spent the season in AAA waiting for a chance and come Sept he got it. Dana made five starts and went 8, 7, 5, 4, 5 2/3 innings. Thank God he didn't continue the trend by only pitching three innings in his last start. He is what he is a soft tossing lefthander who need command to semi succeed. He was the perfect NRI and if those command gains are for real, he might be worth sticking around in 2012. A walk rate of 1.85 will get you in the door.

Inning Two - Nathan Eovaldi got some starts in August, then was sent to the bullpen to save his arm. While starting he showed a big time fastball but little else. He's not ready for prime time yet, time will tell if he's ever ready. Today expect to see at least one 100 MPH heater. The real question is, will it be for a strike?

Inning Three  - Josh Lindblom must have taken a fancy to the way Kenley Jansen was pitching because Josh dialed it up in Sept with 14 K's in only 9 innings of work. Flashing a 92 MPH fastball along with his hard slider at 86, Josh was mowing em down and reminded everyone why they liked him so much.

Inning Four - John Ely only got in seven innings this year so he needs the work. When he did pitch he was very effective with the second best xFIP in the bullpen at 2.81 and a K Rate of double digits. Sometimes mirrors are a pitchers best friend not to mention SSS.

Inning Five - Hong-Chih Kuo was either brilliant in Sept or awful, but unlike the rest of the season he had some brilliant moments in Sept. Out of 10 appearances he gave up runs in 3 of them but in the other seven he went seven innings, striking out eight, giving up only two hits.  Velez understands that Kuo simply needs to pitch a complete inning and not get pulled after a few missteps, so expect him to get all three outs no matter what happens.

Inning Six - Mike MacDougal ended up pitching in 69 games the most of his 11 season career. His ERA of 2.05 hides the fact his xFIP was 4.02. When you watch MacDougal pitch you'd think his K/Rate would be well above his actual 6.47. He throws a 95.5 fastball in combination with a 86 MPH slider, yet he does not miss bats enough, and he does miss the strike zone to much.  In Sept he was the complete WAR (wild ass righty) with a walk rate of 6.14 but that was the norm for Dodger relief pitchers in Sept.

Inning Seven - Scott Elbert had a good run but in Sept he turned back into the WAL we had learned to fear from his previous stints. Overall Elbert was able to keep his control in check with only 14 walks in 33 innings, but in Sept he walked six in six innings. Since he was being used exclusively against LHP that mean he was usually walking the one guy he was supposed to get out. Good news in those 33 innings he only gave up one home run. 92 MPH fastball and 87 MPH slider are his only tricks these days.

Inning Eight - Javy Guerra somehow saved 21 games for the Dodgers, including eight in Sept even though he walked eight in 12 innings in Sept. He did that because he only gave up seven hits in those 12 innings. Was he lucky in Sept? FIP and xFIP say yes with September numbers of 5.53 and 4.41 compared to his actual ERA of 3.00.  Javy throws hard, throwing mostly 94MPH fastballs and 88MPH sliders.

Inning Nine - Velez learned something sitting on the bench. Always save the best for last, and nobody is better then Kenley Jansen.  His comic book numbers of 96 K's in 53 innings will stagger your mind. His 32 K's in 13 innings in Sept will put you on the floor.  Screw Kimbrel, Screw Venters, Screw Robertson, Screw Chapman, the pitcher you want to watch pitch is Kenley Jansen. Bar none.

The game starts at Noon today, so don't be shy about indulging in our game thread as we try to get Matt Kemp his 40 / 40

Dodgers Nationals
CF Kemp SS Desmond
2B Carroll
LF Bernadina
SS Gordon RF Werth
LF Rivera
3B Zimmerman
1B Loney 2B Espinosa
RF Sands
1B Morse
C AJ Ellis C Ramos
3B Miles CF Ankiel
P Eveland P Strasburg

345 comments  | 

Giants come calling

as the hottest team in baseball with eight straight victories as they try to make a last ditch climb toward the Division title or Wild card. The attempt will run out of gas at the ravine as the Giants hopes will leave just as empty as the Union Station gas pumps.

How did this team that struggled so much in August to the tune of a 11 - 18 record get so hot? First off, that guy they traded for got healthy,  and has  gone into full Beltre contract mode with an OPS of 1.264 in Sept.  The Giants have six players with a wOBA over.400 so far in Sept.  Carlos Beltran,  Brett Pill,  Pablo Sandoval,  Cody Ross,  Mark DeRosa and ????????

1st Base - Aubrey Huff, Brandon Belt, Mark DeRosa, and Brett Pill have all seen time at 1st base in Sept,  and they have an wOBA ranging from .331 to .496. Belt is not the rookie having the most impact, that role belongs to little heralded Brett Pill.

2nd Base - Jeff Keppinger is having an awful month putting up a line only Justin Sellers could hope to with a TSL of .182 / .233 / .236.

SS - Tejada was not answer, Crawford was not the answer, Orlando Cabrera was not the answer. So back to Crawford they went, and lo an behold he has been the answer in Sept with a TSL of .259 / .333 / .407. It ain't much but compared what they had been getting, it is plenty enough.

3rd - Pablo Sandoval is capping off his comeback season with a huge September with the fifth best wOBA in baseball at .491, derived from his Sept TSL of .364 / .413 / .836. He wouldn't be left off the 2011 starting playoff team if they somehow happen to make it.

C - Chris Stewart, Hector Sanchez, and Eli Whiteside are splitting time with Stewart providing some offense. This team could really use a Posey.

LF - Cody Ross is banging in Sept just like he did in the playoffs last year. Four home runs, and a .974 OPS  in Sept attest to his resurgence.

CF - Dead Zone or in LA we call that the Uribe Zone

RF - No one is laughing at this trade now, it may be to late but Beltran has done his share of the heavy lifting. He's been the 3rd best hitter in baseball in Sept based on his wOBA of .523. Overall Beltran has now hit better as a Giant then he did as a Met and he was damn good as a Met.

Comeback player of the year, Beltran, Sandoval, or Matt Kemp?

Game One - Another classic matchup between Lincecum and Kershaw. I'm going to assume you all know all you need to know about them.

Game Two - Ryan Vogelsong against Dana Eveland - If you want offense this might be the game to see.

Game Threee - Bumgarner is already the GIants best pitcher, the talented lefthander will be dueling Kershaw for years to come but on the last home game of the year for the Dodgers he will get Kuroda.

171 comments  | 

Dazzling Diamondback Preview

Get used to seeing this (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Hottest two teams in the NL collide starting this Monday but sadly the goals of the season are quite different. The Dodgers are tying to catch the Giants and .500 baseball,  while the Diamondbacks are simply honing their fangs as they await the conclusion of the season to find out which NL team will feel the venom of their bite.

The last time we saw the Diamondbacks was on Aug 7th, and while the Diamondbacks were the surprise of the division they were still in second place with a 62 - 52 record. Since that time the dazzling Diamondbacks have gone 23 - 10 to take a commanding lead in the NL West, leaving the Dodgers and Giants to fight for second place.

They did it with some bold moves

  • Bringing up AA 1st baseman Paul Goldschmidt,  releasing or trading all other 1st base options
  • Signed Lyle Overbay off the waiver wire to complement the right handed swinging Goldschmidt
  • Traded incumbent 2nd baseman Kelly Johnson for Toronto's keystone combo of McDonald and Hill
  • Added Jason Marquis to the rotation
  • Traded power hitting 1st base prospect Brandon Allen to the A's for relief specialist Brad Zeigler

Not every move has worked out as Jason Marquis can attest but the production of Hill, Overbay, and Goldschmidt can't be denied.  Zeigler has helped shore up the bullpen with 17 innings of work since the deal. The dynamic duo of Hudson and Kennedy continue to flourish while Saunders and Collmenter continue to do steady work, supported by a live offense.

1st Base - Goldschmidt is not wowing but he is getting the job done with a .807 OPS since he arrived. His seven home runs in 113 at bats attest to the power. Lyle Overbay was picked up off the scrapheap and has had a hand in a few key come from behind victories. He's only getting spot starts but in limited action (33 at bats) he's posted a .877 OPS. 

2nd Base - Two years ago Aaron Hill hit 36 home runs and made the AL All - Star while posting a .829 OPS. He followed that up in 2010 with 26 home runs but that was all he did as his average crashed to .205. In 2011 he was even worse as he couldn't even hit home runs. You may be hard pressed to find a hitter who fell faster then Aaron Hill from 2009 to August 2011. Yet on Aug 23rd the Diamondbacks were in a fix with Stephen Drew being lost for the year so they rolled the dice and traded their starting 2nd baseman for the BlueJays 2nd baseman and SS.  Since showing up as a Diamondback Aaron Hill is not only hitting again, but he's hitting better then he ever has with a TSL of .333 / .380 / .500. 

SS - John McDonald is a defensive specialist  and in this case the defensive metrics back up the subjective view that McDonald is one of the smoothest fielding shortstops in the game. He can't hit so he doesn't play every day. Shockingly the hitting shortstop is Willie Bloomquist, and yes that is a line I never expected to type. In Sept Bloomquist has a .885 OPS in limited at bats.

3rd - Everyone has been waiting for the bloom to fall off of Ryan Roberts but the colorful one continues to hold his own. Geoff Blum came off the DL too,  taking some pressure off Roberts by facing the tough righthanders, so at the moment the Diamondbacks have a productive duo handling 3rd base.

C - Miguel Montero is just below Brian McCann in the NL pecking order. Using 250 at bats however it is neither McCann or Montero who is the best offensive catcher in the NL this year. Anyone care to guess who that might be?

RF - Justin Upton is the Diamondback candidate for MVP if you take Fangraphs WAR seriously,  his WAR of 7.0 leads all NL RF by 2.7 points. That is problematic because it ranks him the best defensive RF in the NL, with Andre in 2nd place and we all know that is hoo haa.  Yet offensively he can make his case. 30 home runs, 21 stolen bases,  .931 OPS, 150 OPS+, all while leading his team to a route of the NL West.  Justin Upton has arrived.

CF - Chris Young has seen his offense drop from his high point on July 1st, but he still provides excellent defense giving the Diamondbacks the best defensive outfield in baseball. 

LF - Geraldo Parra doesn't get much attention but Fangraphs feels he's the best defensive outfielder in baseball. In fact if you check out this table you will notice that the top three defensive outfielders in the NL are Parra, Young, and Upton.

Which leads me to wonder if something is fishy in Arizona because subjectively I've never been impressed with the defensive work of Upton or Chris Young.  Oh yeah, small sample size. Whatever

Bench - Since they mix and match at 3rd, SS, and LF, only Collin Cowgill and Blanco are really bench players.

Starting Pitching:

Game One - Joe Saunders will take on Ted Lilly, Dodgers should be very familiar with Joe as this will be his fifth start against them this year. Below is how the current team has done, Andre has the most at bats but I've removed him.

                                                              
                PA  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS
Matt Kemp       12  4  1  0  1   3  2  0 .400 .500  .800 1.300
Aaron Miles     11  3  0  0  0   1  0  0 .273 .273  .273  .545
Jamey Carroll   10  3  0  0  0   0  1  1 .333 .400  .333  .733
Juan Rivera      9  4  1  0  1   1  0  1 .444 .444  .889 1.333
Tony Gwynn       6  0  0  0  0   0  0  3 .000 .000  .000  .000
James Loney      6  0  0  0  0   0  1  1 .000 .167  .000  .167
Rod Barajas      5  3  0  0  1   2  0  1 .600 .600 1.200 1.800
Dee Gordon       5  1  0  0  0   0  0  0 .200 .200  .200  .400
Jerry Sands      3  0  0  0  0   0  1  0 .000 .333  .000  .333
Russ Mitchell    1  0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000
Trent Oeltjen    1  0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000
Eugenio Velez    1  0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000
Total           92 24  2  0  3   8  5 12 .282 .322  .412  .734

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/12/2011.

Game Two - Potential 20 game winner and very dark house Cy Young candidate Ian Kennedy will take on the struggling Chad Billingsley.  Don't think for a moment that Ian is all wins, he has been one of the top ten pitchers in the NL all year earning a WAR of 4.2, putting him right with Tim Lincecum.

Game Three - Daniel Hudson takes on the 2011 Cy Young award winner. Hudson and Kennedy have been near the top of the NL pitching leaderboard from the get go giving the Diamondbacks solid outings time after time.

Bullpen:

The last time we visited David Hernandez was saving games for the injured Putz, but with Putz back Hernandez has slotted back into a setup role. Helping out Hernandez was the recently acquired Brad Zeigler, Laker refugee Bryan Shaw, professional hitter Micah Owings, and Ryan Cook, along with a plethora of others.

Not only are the Diamondbacks doing damage to the NL West but they have two of the best young pitching prospects still in AA in Tevor Bauer and Jarrod Parker. Not to mention we are going to miss the recently promoted Wade Miley and the solid Josh Collmenter. While the Braves hold the monopoly on great young arms in the East, the Diamondbacks might have two of the higher ceiling prospects themselves along with two very serviceable arms. No one may have seen the Diamondbacks coming this fast in 2011 but it is doubtful they will be going away anytime soon. I can easily count Kennedy, Hudson, Saunders, Collmenter, Miley, Bauer, and Parker for 2012.  My oh My the NL West is loaded with young pitching.

The Dodgers can slow down the slithering Diamondbacks by taking two of three starting with tonights game. Lilly has done good work against the Diamondbacks, and I expect the right leaning Dodger lineup to put the hurt on Saunders. Kershaw will win his 19th on Wednesday. I expect nothing from Chad these days.

841 comments  | 

Uggla Time : Atlanta Brave Preview

While the Braves don't appear to have a chance to catch the Phillies, they are firmly entrenched in the drivers seat for the Wild Card, so a postseason berth in 2011 looks like a given. A few story lines to the Brave 2011 season.

  • Dan Uggla was one of the worst hitters in baseball in the 1st half and one of the best in the 2nd half
  • Heralded Jason Heyward was supposed to put his stamp on being on being one of the best young hitters in the game, instead he enters this series with more question marks then answers about his future.
  • Rookie 1st baseman Freddie  Freeman is fighting his teammate for ROY honors, and has been the best young hitter on the team, not Jason Heyward.
  • Speaking of ROY honors Craig Kimbrel would seem to have this nailed down with his 41 saves and he might not even be the best pitcher in the bullpen, that honor might go to Jonny Venters, his outstanding setup man.
  • The Braves have four full time pitchers in the rotation 25 years of younger and they are still loaded in AAA/AA with more pitching. I cannot recall any team having this much good young pitching in a long time.

1st Base - 21 year old Freddie Freeman is doing it all, mixing in decent plate discipline with some power. His .819 OPS may not overwhelm anyone but  his offense  is good for sixth place among full time NL 1st baseman.

2nd Base - Dan Uggla has been the best hitting NL 2nd baseman for the last two months with 18 home runs. A July wRC of 162 and August 191 punctuate this point. . His hitting streak was not some single a game but a plethora of extra base hits. From July 5th - Aug 13th Uggla belted out 20 XBH, including 15 long balls on his way to a triple stat line of .377 / .438 / .762 / 1.200 OPS. He increased his OPS from a dismal .568 to .763 which is hard to do when you already have 318 at bats under your belt. Must have been some sort of fireworks that he watched on July 4th, to set him off on July 5th.  While he has slowed down once the streak was over, he did not go Andre on the league, he's still posting a plus .800 OPS since the streak.

SS - The Braves are not infallible, they did trade a good young SS with attitude problems for the worst full time hitting shortstop in the NL. Last year Gonzalez hit some home runs and this year has hit 12 but that does not make up for a .256 OB%.

3rd - Future HOF Chipper Larry Jones can still hit but he's in and out of the lineup so much it is  hard to call him the full time 3rd baseman. If he does not play then Prado will take his spot.

C- Brian McCann is the best offensive catcher in the NL. You knew that.

RF - Jason Heyward has shown he can take a walk, he has shown nothing else in 2011. The future star is going to have to regroup next year and hope he shakes off his multitude of minor injuries to get reach the potential he showed in 2010.

CF - The Braves acquired Michael Bourn at the trading deadline from the Astro's and he's done what he does. Steal some bases, play great CF, not hit too much.

LF - When Chipper can play 3rd base, Martin Prado handles LF, when Prado has to play 3rd, then 27 year old rookie Jose Constanza plays LF.  Prado does not hit much for a LF or 3rd baseman, at least not this year. Constanza has a .822 OPS in the major leagues which blatantly contradicts his career minor league OPS of .720.

Bench - Eric Hinske leads a solid bench that just acquired Matt Diaz to face some LHP. David Ross is still here as the backup catcher.

Starting Pitching - We will see the kids this series with 24 year old Brandon Beachy, 23 year old Mike Minor, and the old veteran 25 year old Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens has had a rough August giving up over five runs in three  of his four August starts. If you want to look at peripherals the kids are doing extremely well, Jair, not so much.

August Numbers:

Name ERA xFIP tERA Siera
Brandon Beachy 3.41 2.16 2.48 2.06
Mike Minor 4.03 2.62 3.62 2.54
Jair Jurrjens 6.17 5.76 6.85 5.93

 

Bullpen is outstanding with Kimbrel closing out any lead that Jonny Venters gives to him. Right handers Christian Martinez and Eric O'Flaherty get the ball to Venters. They even added 20 year old Arodys Vizcaino to make things even harder.  I'm sure we will see George Sherrill pitch to Andre and Loney at some point. Andre and Loney are going to have a very hard time getting a hit against Sherrill and Venters in the 7th or 8th innings.

 

This is a good team, a team that is going to get better, a team that you will not come back from if the bullpen is given a lead.  The offense could use some work and if Uggla hits the skids again they will have trouble scoring runs. I could see the Dodgers winning two of three if they can score early and ride the pitching of Kershaw to one victory on Sunday,  and battle to a victory on either Friday / Saturday.

I guarantee one thing, they will not be swept by the Braves.

124 comments  | 

Also-Rans Face off / Rockies Preview

We need more of this and less of that latest Dodger trend that involves getting thrown out at the plate. (Photo by Scott Boehm/Getty Images)


Rockies are 58 - 67 one full game a head of the Dodgers as two teams who had aspirations for post season play find themselves playing out the string in August. For the Dodgers it was more of a pipe dream where many things had to go right for a postseason endeavor but for the Rockies as early as April they were crowned the NL Western champions so it must really be a tough pill to swallow to find themselves in this situation.

They still have Cargo and Tulo but Ubaldo is no more. They got a pomeranian for him. At least their brightest pitching prospect didn't undergo TJ surgery, he simply got whacked upside the noggin with a line drive and is out for the year. Which in his case was the best case scenario as it could have been much worse. Rockie fans will need to wait until next year to see if Juan Nicasio can shake off the mental aspect of being beaned and come back to the level he was at before the ball dented his skull.

1st Base - Todd Helton / Jason Giambi - does any team have an older duo manning 1st base?  How is Giambi in the NL? The White Sox could have saved 60 Million by simply signing Giambi to DH, and he would certainly have produced at a level you'd expect a DH to produce at. Then again the last time we saw the Rockies, Jason could not even run to 1st base without hurting himself.

2nd Base - Mark Ellis - seems strange to me they are still giving him at bats and have decided to try Chris Nelson as a 3rd baseman.  Ellis came over when the Rockies still thought they would be in the hunt and he made a huge impact in his first week but has since cooled off. In the last 28 days he has a .475 OPS.  Jonathan Herrera may end up playing some 2nd.

SS - Some guy name Tulo, you might have heard of him.

3rd - right now they are using former number one pick Chris Nelson at 3rd base. He's struggling but at least they are going to give him regular at bats for the rest of the year. I suspect he'll either be the starting 2nd baseman or 3rd baseman in 2012. Like the James Loney era in LA is coming to an end it would appear the Ian Stewart era is also ending for the Rockies. They are two completely different players, but still incredibly ineffective.

C - Chris Ianetta continues to be a plus offensively. He had a terrible July, but is smoking hot in August with a .974 OPS.

RF - Carlos Gonzalez - Other then a terrible April, Cargo has posted a plus .900 OPS every month.

CF - Dexter Fowler  is now getting full time at bats and he's doing what he's always done. Since 2009 he has posted three season OPS+ of 94, 92, 97.  Of course it has taken a scorching 2nd half to get him to his normal level. .892 OPS in the 2nd half.

LF - Looks like Seth Smith and Eric Young are getting the time in LF. Earlier in the year Carlos Gonzalez was playing LF and Smith right field but in August they looked to have been flip flopped.

Bench has Giambi, Wiggington, Herrera, Spilborghs, Eliezer Alfonzo is the backup catcher. Nice old group who can hit a home run if you need it, play terrible infield defense if you need it. 

Match Ups:

Triple Stat Line = TSL = tERA / SIERA / xFIP

Hiroki Kuroda  versus Jason Hammel - Hammel used to be able to strike out hitters but in 2011 he's strictly a contact pitcher which might not be a good idea pitching in Coors. His K rate in 2010 was 7.14, in 2011 it is 4.78. Too bad for him his GB rate has dropped from 46% to 43%.  I'm not an expert nor did I sleep at a Holiday Inn but those don't appear to be good trends. His TSL 5.99 / 4.89 / 4.71

Ted Lilly versus Esmil Rodgers - hard throwing Rogers is back in the rotation. He throws a 94MPH fastball, along with a 84MPH slider. He also has a change up and curveball that he will mix in. TSL = 5.57 / 4.51 / 4.74

Chad Billingsley versus Kevin Millwood - The 36 year old Millwood has only made two starts for the Rockies since being signed to help the beleagured rotation. Once upon a time he was a good pitcher, got paid a lot of money, was not so good, and will spend the next few years of his career bouncing around from team to team.  Chad Billingsley might end up with the exact same career path.

Bullpen:

Huston Street is hurt which doesn't really help a team because Rafael Betancourt takes over the closing duties and this guy is nails. Betancourt has had some of the best peripherals of any bullpen pitcher over the last few years.  I'm not going to spend any time on the rest of the bullpen, hopefully we see a plethora of them.

 

Dodgers will have no excuses for not scoring some runs this weekend. Ted Lilly in the daytime in Coors would appear to be a nightmare but he's pitching so well lately that I think he delivers again. The Dodgers ran into a legitimate buzzsaw with the Brewers but they played that very good team solidly and came within a few breaks of winning that series or at the least breaking even. The Rockies are not the Brewers, if the Dodgers don't win 2 out of three and score at least three runs in every game, they deserve to be in last place by the time this series is over.

250 comments  | 

2012 Lottery Winner Preview

The Houston Astros have won only 38 games making them by far the worst team in baseball in 2011 thus assuring them of having the 1st pick in the 2012 draft.  Over the last two years they have traded away any asset they could get a return on (Berkman, Oswalt, Keppinger, Bourn, Pence) as they build toward the future.  

Unlike another last place team they have jettisoned most of the veterans and pulled up player after player from their minor leagues. Heck they have even demoted young players who needed work and given their jobs to other prospects. Good bet most of the names being mentioned below are being heard about for the first time.

Future and present 24 year old 1st baseman Brett Wallace was sent back to AAA to "work on things" so the Astros  moved Carlos Lee from LF to 1st base.

At 2nd base they released Bill Hall, sent Jeff Keppinger packing to the Giants and called up line drive hitting machine Jose Altuve. Altuve was not on anyone's radar entering 2011, yet the 21 year old destroyed two levels of minor league ball, making the unusual jump of starting the year in the Cal League,  and ending up in the major leagues by July.  Many felt he'd quickly be overmatched in the major leagues but after 21 games he's sporting a 117 OPS+ from the 2nd base position. Regression is due, since most of that is batting average driven but still nice to see the kid performing when brought up instead of doing the Sands/Gordon Mendoza dance. 

Clint Barmes/Angel Sanchez split time at SS and while we like to make fun of Barmes he's got a 99 OPS+.

Just like 1st base, the Astro's sent the guy they thought was the future and present 3rd baseman Chris Johnson back to AAA to "work on things" and called up 22 year old switch hitting Jimmy Paredes to man the hot corner. Paredes came over in the Lance Berkman deal last year and so far in limited at bats he's got a smoking .870 OPS. Given that he has a career minor league OPS of .717, this mirage should dissipate quickly.

Just like the Dodgers, none of their catchers are anyone of note so we will not make any notes about them.

With Carlos Lee moving to 1st base, left field now belongs to J.D. Martinez who is their version of Jerry Sands. Martinez was drafted in the 20th round of the 2009 draft and is already their starting left fielder. Another of the young kids who has been brought up and immediately produced.  In limited at bats he has an OPS of .970. Martinez like Altuve might be the real thing, he had a .958 OPS in the Texas League before his promotion but this is still a big jump for guy who was drafted a mere two years ago.  

CF now belongs to the speedy Jason Bourgeois who replaced the speedy Bourn. Bourgeois was drafted in the second round by Texas way back in 2000. The 29 year old is trying to have a Pod like career with his late start.

RF is manned by two more kids brought up. Brian Bogusevic and Jack Shuck. Both are place holders for whoever eventually mans RF.  Jordan Schafer who came over in the Bourn deal will either be the Astros CF or RF of the future, but he's currently hurt.

***

Bud Norris ,  Wandy Rodriguez, and Jordan Lyles  will toe the rubber against us. Everyone should be familiar with Wandy Rodriguez, the soft tossing lefty has made a career out of out performing his skill set. They tried to trade him this summer but his contract kept the bidding low so he's still an Astro.  He's got a consistent line of 3.52 / 3.97 /3.67.

Bud Norris has been the best starter for the Astro's and probably gives them their best shot for a win going against Eovaldi. His TSL is 3.73 / 3.86 / 3.58, augmented by his 8.49 K/9 rate.

20 year old Jordan Lyles has made 13 starts this year and has done a decent job. His TSL is 4.88 / 4.12 /3.95. Lyles has made a bit of meteoric climb given the fact he drafted at age 17 with the 38th pick in 2008. He's got a five pitch arsenal but barely touches 90 with his fastball.

Baseball HQ Report on him:

Lyles has reached the majors quickly after being selected in the supplemental first round of the '08 draft. He possesses a clean, smooth arm and repeats his delivery consistently, giving him plus command and outstanding control of a four pitch arsenal. He pitches off his 88-94 mph fastball that he keeps low in the strike zone, though he often overthrows it, leaving it flat and susceptible to hard hit balls. His cutter can be tough to square up and his slider and change-up are above average offerings. While he doesn't project to a dominant strikeout artist, Lyles can register Ks with his secondary pitches. He prefers to hit his spots and force hitters to make contact early in the count. Lyles bypassed High-A in '10 and has a career 3.49 ERA, 2.5 Ctl, and 8.9 Dom.

Henry Sosa was the prize in the Jeff Keppinger trade and if he can become a regular member of the rotation, you'd have to like the return. Wouldn't take much imagination to figure that Henry Sosa will have a better major league career then J Happ who was the centerpiece of the Oswalt deal. Sosa made his major league debut this week so his start against us will be only his 2nd start. Course that probably won't happen, Sosa is strictly a two pitch pitcher, with a 92 MPH fastball and a 82 MPH slider. He throws those two pitches 99% of the time. Or did in his 1st start.

Baseball HQ Report on him:

Henry Sosa (RHP, HOU)
The Astros recalled the 26-year-old from Triple-A and he'll start on Wednesday, August 11. Sosa, once a promising prospect in the Giants organization, was acquired in mid-July '11. He has spent most of his career as a starter, though some scouts believe a full-time move to the bullpen would be ideal for his pure arm strength. Sosa is athletic and succeeds when he's able to command his plus 90-96 mph fastball to both sides of the plate. His second pitch is a hard curveball that serves as his strikeout offering. Sosa has effort in his high 3/4 delivery and often has significant command issues, especially when he overthrows his heater. His arm remains intriguing, but it may take awhile to fully develop the intricate parts of his pitching repertoire. He owns a career 3.53 ERA, 3.7 Ctl, and 8.1 Dom.

The Astros have enough mediocre pitching they might be able to keep the pathetic Dodger offense grounded but our threesome should prove to be too much for the Astro kiddy attack. Eovaldi will feel like he's still in AA facing the Astro lineup, Kershaw should have a field day, and maybe Kuroda can find a win on Sunday.  A sweep is not out of the question but every team must feel they have a shot at a sweep when the Astros come to town. 

As heartbreaking as the Dodger loss on Wednesday was, the Astros did them one  better Thursday Night, losing 8 -5 in a game they led 5 - 3 in the bottom of the 9th when their closer Mark Melancon gave up a mammoth two-run blast to Paul Goldschmidt to tie the game. Then three more in the bottom of the 10th on Chris Young's shot sealed the deal. Suffice to say, the Dodgers should never feel out of any game this weekend.

331 comments  | 

First Time Look at the Nationals

Manager -Jim Riggleman

Manager - John McLaren

Manager - Old Friend Davey Johnson

Outlook:  The Nationals are only two games under .500 fueled by a June record of  17 - 10. They are treading water in July at 8 - 9.  If the Nationals can finish around .500 it will be a huge achievement considering that the large expenditures on Werth / LaRoche have basically been worthless, the huge mistake in trading Nyjer Morgan, the injury to Ryan Zimmerman, and the dismal sophomore play of Ian Desmond.  This team has a very bright future with the best position prospect in baseball getting ready to help in 2012, and the infamous Stephen Strasberg  getting ready to start pitching this Sept.  Luckily for the Dodgers this young team does it's best work at home with a 28 - 18 record compared to the 20 - 32 road record. Going forward into the 2012 unlike the Dodgers the Nat's will be set at 2nd base, SS, 3rd base, catcher, right field, and left field.  Must be nice. To bad we are going to miss the NL debut of Chien-Ming Wang who I think gets to pitch next weekend after several years of rehab.

Disabled List:  Stephen Strasburg , Ivan Rodriguez, Adam LaRoche, Chien-Ming Wang

Positions:

1st Base: Luckily for the Nat's Adam LaRoche got hurt, before he was hurt he was the WORST offensive first baseman in baseball (.172/.288/.258) in 177 at bats. The Nat's are paying him $8,000,000 for that type of production. From what I gather they can buy him out of next years $10,000,000 option for 1 Million. I wonder what they are going to do? Talk about Night and Day, Michael Morse is now the everyday 1st baseman and his TSL is (.312/.361/.553) which ranks him among the top five NL 1st baseman.  Morse is another in the extremely long line of Ex - Seattle Mariners who have gotten a chance to play everyday and flourished. Morse is not slowing down either, he has a .974 OPS in July. 

2nd Base: Danny Espinosa at this point in the season looks like a lock for the ROY award except for the fact Kimbrel is still considered a rookie.. The slugging 2nd baseman leads all rookies in home runs (17), run batted in (55), runs scored (47), and ISO (.217). Just for fun his WAR is almost double of his next ROY competitor, teammate Wilson Ramos. Freddie Freeman and Ramos might have a say in this but given that Espinosa appears to be a defensive wizard, a 2nd baseman, and hitting at the same level as Freeman, he's my choice.  Compared to his 2nd base peers hes also a top five 2nd baseman. 

Shortstop: Everything is not golden for the Nationals. The SS of the future Ian Desmond may not be the SS of the future.  The more Desmond plays the less he looks like an everyday SS. Little average, no plate discipline, no power (.226 / .268 / .312).

3rd Base:  Ryan Zimmerman entered 2011 as the best 3rd baseman in the NL, maybe the best in baseball but he's had a tough go so far this year. He missed most of the year to injury and upon his return has been lackluster. We know what he's capable of, I would not pay much attention to the stats, he'll get going. 

Catcher: Is Wilson Ramos a reason to not pay attention to AAA stats? He entered 2010 as a fairly highly touted catching prospect for the Twins (ranked #58 by BA) but had an OPS of only .625 in AAA when the Twins traded him to the Nationals for Matt Capps. A trade the Twins gravely regretted in 2011 when Mauer went down and they had no catchers to replace him as they sank to the bottom of the AL West. Ramos free of the Twins minor league system went on to post an .835 OPS over the final month. He hit the ground running in 2011 as the Nat's everyday catcher, the 23 year old is now  one of the best young catchers in baseball. Plus he just keeps getting better. His OPS in July is a robust .989. That's right. .989. On July 22nd, the numbers one and two ROY candidates are playing for the same team. 

Right Fielder:  Statistically Jayson Werth has been very bad even if he was making the minimum, factor in the mammoth contract he signed this past offseason and you can understand if some Nat fans think they got shafted. Werth has not been this bad since he broke his wrist in 2005. His eye is still good as he still has that 100 point spread between batting average and on base average. The problem is the batting average is .218 and the slug% is .370. He has not slugged below .400 since 2005. Many will say he's simply paying the price for not playing in Philly anymore, but I'm going to reserve judgement, after all it has only been 3 1/2 months into the contract. For now he's a colossal disappointment, but things can change. 

Center Fielder: Mistakes in judgment might have cost the Nationals a real shot in 2011. They had Nyler Morgan, they decided he did not fit and sent him packing to the Brewers, where he is doing his best work to help lead the Brewers to a Central Division Pennant. To replace Morgan they brought in Rick Ankiel who was typically terrible. They are now using speedster Roger Bernadina who is a big improvement over Ankiel but he's no Nyler Morgan. To be fair, this may be the best baseball Nyler Morgan ever plays. 

Left Fielder: If you had looked at Lance Nix a month ago you'd have said, wow, what a season he's having. On June 5th he had on OPS of .911. Since then .648. Bringing us to his current OPS of .798 which is still good for a left fielder these days but a far cry  from his pre June 5th work. 

Bench:  Guess who sits on the Nat bench waiting for Broxton?

Starting Pitching:

Xeifrank Dodger Simulation Matchup
xFIP/tERA/SIERA
Matchup Fave Win% Total Runs
4.10 / 4.58 / 4.29
John Lannan versus Hiroki Kuroda LA 57.36 6.8
3.99 /4.26 / 3.70
Tom Gorzelanny versus Ted Lilly LA
3.75 / 4.42 / 3.91 Jason Marquis versus Chad Billingsley LA

 

Lefty Lannan doesn't strike out anyone but so far he's getting the job done. Lefty Gorzelanny could always strike people out but command was his problem, so far this year his command has improved and now he's the second best pitcher on the staff. Tom did turn an ankle but is expected to make this start. Is it any surprise the Cubs traded the good pitcher and kept the crappy ones. Has anyone noticed who the Cubs have been using in their rotation this year? Keith would be pleased as more then any TBLA member he was big on Gorzelanny.  Marquis is actually pitching well. Shit happens

Bullpen:

Setup:Henry Rodriquez has the second most innings out of the bullpen in July but has a strep throat so he may not pitch much this weekend. Look to see Tyler Clippard, Todd Coffey, and Ryan Mattheus, with lefty Sean Burnett getting the Andre call.

Closer: Drew Storen won the job and has not given up a run in July to go along his his six July saves.

I like this team. Put Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw on it,  and this would be the team I'd want to watch play for the next 10 years.

568 comments  | 

Gibson Black Magic : Dodger / Diamondback Preview

Who says managers don't make a difference. Gibby laughs at them.  (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Big changes since I last did a Diamondback preview on May 13th as the Diamondbacks were 15 - 21 and looked headed for our season. Instead they used that weekend to springboard into contention. Their record now is 49 - 43 as they battle the Giants for the right to represent the NL West in the postseason. How has this team managed to turn around their season to the turn of a 34 - 22 record since May 13th?

For one thing they have Kirk Gibson as their manager a man who is only about winning, he seems to have taken the same force he used in Detroit,  and Los Angeles to forge a winning team out of a group of players that didn't seem to have it in them.

Outlook:  The offense has no black holes. Everyone contributes, some more then others but you cannot find an easy out in the lineup. Everyone has an OPS+ over 95, six over 100, and one sitting at 99. The top of the rotation is getting it done (Hudson / Kennedy).  Saunders has not been as bad.  Josh Collmenter had some Elymania action going in May, hit some trouble in June, but had a great last start before the break. To compete it would appear this team needs another solid pitcher as their best prospects are simply not ready.

Disabled List:  JJ Putz and Juan Gutierrez

Positions:

1st Base: The Juan Miranda story has ended for the Diamondbacks. They have brought up Brandon Allen who will give the major leagues a third try as he tries to prove he's not simply a Juan Miranda clone. Allen has power and contact issues. He was tearing up AAA and here is Baseball HQ's scouting report on him.

The 25-year-old Allen has long had similar contact issues while showing solid patience and good power--all of which are on display in his 70% ct%, 17% bb% and 18 HR over 304 AB in AAA Reno. Allen's numbers in two prior MLB stints are also eerily similar to Miranda's, most notably a .221/.319/.389 line with five HR in 149 AB. Still, he'll likely see the large portion of the ARI 1B ABs over the near-term -- sharing time with right-handed-hitting Xavier Nady -- while perhaps also seeing some PT in LF. 

I expect Allen is just holding the bag until Paul Goldschmidt is ready to take the reigns.

2nd Base: Kelly Johnson was having a forgetful year until May 20th. On May 20th Kelly had a .565 OPS, it now sits at .740 thanks to a tremendous run in which he has had 26 extra base hits in only 189 plate appearances. His OPS from May20th to the break was .922. So when you see his current TSL of .218/.300/.440 don't be fooled, Kelly is dealing.

Shortstop: Steven Drew is going in the opposite direction of Kelly Johnson. His OPS per month .973 / .673 / .698 / .477.

3rd Base:  Ryan Roberts is no longer the talk of the town but he played well enough, long enough that Melvin Mora was sent packing to find another team to help him feed his quintuplets. Roberts is now sharing time with one time wonderkid Sean Burroughs who was one of the first ballyhooed 3rd base prospect to face plant in the major leagues this decade.

Catcher: Miguel Montero continues to be a solid offensive catcher, ranking near the top in all NL offensive categories for catchers.

Right Fielder: Justin Upton exploded in June and is finally looking like the player we all thought he was going to be. His overall TSL of .304 / .370 / .518 is getting it done.  

Center Fielder: Chris Young is having the best year of his career. He has dropped his K rate from a high of 26% in 2009 to 18% in 2011 and the extra contact is paying off for him. Check out this on base progression this year by month. .272 / .323 / 375 / 405 while hitting sixteen home runs. Patience has paid off for the Diamondbacks as they now have the center fielder they thought they had back in 2007. 

Left Fielder: Gerardo Parra is holding his own in LF offensively, and defensively according to fangraphs, he's the best LF in the NL with a rating of 9.5.  His OPS is only .771 but among the sad group of left fielders in the NL that is not bad. . 

Bench:  Willie Bloomquist is the super utility man who can play everywhere, Henry Blanco is the back up catcher..

Starting Pitching:

Xeifrank Dodger Simulation Matchup
Game# Matchup Fave Win% Total Runs
1 Saunders versus Clayton Kershaw LA 54.65 8.2
2 Ian Kennedy  versus Hiroki Kuroda LA
3 Daniel Hudson versus Ted Lilly LA

Clayton Kershaw won the last matchup with Saunders but it was due more to the quality pitching of Clayton then the offense we generated against Saunders. Saunders is like the sacrificial lamb Gibson is throwing at us while letting his best two pitchers work toward victories against Kuroda and Lilly on Saturday and Sunday. That said knowing how this team struggles against LHP, we have to hope Juan Rivera can provide some pop so that we give something for Clayton to work with.

Hudson and Kennedy have scaled back a bit on their awesomeness since we last saw them but they are still a formidable duo.  We missed Hudson during the last series but saw more then we wanted from Kennedy as he dominated the Dodgers for six innings in his last start against them.

Bullpen:

Setup: Ghame Over is back and he's doing good work. Yhencey Brazoban has pitched the most out of the bullpen in July, putting up a 12 K/9 rate. Others in the bullpen are Micah Owings,  Sam Dremel, with lefties Joe Paterson and Alberto Castillo filling out the bullpen.  Aaron Heilman is also available for your consideration.

Closer: David Hernandez took over for the injured JJ Putz and as is often the case, the ex -starter is doing a bang up job as the Diamondback closer. He's been wildly effective so expect some Marmol type innings if they have to call on him. 

Matchup Notes:  The Dodgers scored only five runs in the last three game series they played at Chase with Saunders giving up four of them in his loss to Kershaw . That means that Kennedy and Collmeter pretty much shut down the team after that.  Can't say I'm a fan of Donnie boy letting Lilly pitch on Sunday instead of Monday but that is how he has made out the rotation to start the  second half.

461 comments  | 


User Tools

A place for Dodger fans to congregate without spending $15 on parking.

2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$112,162,432

For more detailed information, click here.

Players on 40-man roster used as roster
fillers until moves are made.

Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
56 Matt Chico lhp
29
33 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25
28 Jamey Wright rhp
37

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
65 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
37 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

*Age on June 30, 2012

NRI count: 20

For more info, click here.


Manager

Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

Editors

100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

Dgy_small David Young

Hanauma_bay_small Chad Moriyama

2501_small Michael White

Raptors_small Brandon Lennox