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We're Going To Miss Aaron Sele

I'm in a bit of a writing malaise right now, so updates are going to be sporadic for a bit.
The thing that seems to have the media hyped about the Dodgers offseason is the improvements made to the starting rotation. The main argument for this position is that last year at this time, the Dodgers starting rotation featured Brett Tomko, Odalis Perez and Jae Seo and they've been replaced by Jason Schmidt, Chad Billingsley, and Randy Wolf. This is a perfectly true statement, but the improvement isn't as big as it seems. Here's how the Dodgers starting pitchers performed last year:

GS ERA
Derek Lowe 34 3.63
Brad Penny 33 4.33
Chad Billingsley 16 3.90
Aaron Sele 15 4.18
Brett Tomko 15 5.12
Greg Maddux 12 3.30
Mark Hendrickson 12 5.32
Jae Seo 10 5.26
Odalis Perez 8 8.53
Hong-Chih Kuo 5 3.07
Eric Stults 2 2.46

While losing 45 terrible starts from Tomko, Perez, Hendrickson and Seo will certainly help the Dodgers, this type of analysis ignores the 34 great starts that the Dodgers got from Aaron Sele, Greg Maddux, Hong Chih Kuo, and Eric Stults. Sele somehow managed to accumulate a strong 4.18 ERA in almost half a seasons worth of starts. Greg Maddux put up ace type numbers after we acquired him, and Kuo and Stults were lights out in September. Combined these pitchers threw 197.7 innings of 3.60 ERA ball. Effectively, this mishmash of starters gave the Dodgers another number one starter, and we'd be very lucky if Jason Schmidt could equal this contribution.

To better compare the 2006 Dodger pitching staff with the 2007 Dodger staff, I've broken the 2006 Dodgers into five starters: Lowe, Penny, the good spot starters (Sele, Maddux, Kuo and Stults) and the bad spot starters (Hendrickson, Tomko, Seo and Perez). I've also added Billingsley to the bad starters for the sake of balance, rather than having the bad starters combine for 45 starts.

2006 Dodgers 2007 Dodgers (ZIPS)
Good Spot Starters 3.60 Derek Lowe 3.83
Derek Lowe 3.63 Jason Schmidt 3.94
Brad Penny 4.33 Brad Penny 3.95
Bad Spot Starters 5.26 Chad Billingsley 4.38
Bad Spot Starters 5.26 Randy Wolf 4.89

All together, Dodger starters put up a 4.29 ERA last year. If you simply take the average ERA of the Dodgers pitchers in 2007, you get 4.20. This isn't a perfect way to measure the strength of the rotation, better pitchers will pitch more innings, but it also doesn't account for the likely drop in production the Dodgers will get during the inevitable Tomko and Hendrickson starts. The 2007 Dodger starting rotation certainly is better, but not nearly as much as it would seem.

Once thing that seems to be forgotten about the 2006 Dodgers is how many players like Sele, Lofton, Saito, and others came out of nowhere to give the Dodgers very good results. While Aaron Sele is a very replaceable pitcher, the runs he saved the Dodgers in 2006 aren't.

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ZIPS & Dodger pitching
It will be interesting to see how the last two spots in the rotation shape out.  In a perfect world, one would hope that both Billingsley and Guo both be given a fair shot at making the rotation, moving Wolf to the bullpen if so be.  One has the feeling that Wolf will be given a spot in the starting rotation, barring a terrible spring training.  I would like to see Guo given a shot at making the starting rotation, especially after what he did in the month of September last season.

Current Dodger vs Diamondbacks ZIPS simulation results have been posted.
http://DodgerSims.Blogspot.com/

vr, Xeifrank

by xeifrank on Jan 29, 2007 5:01 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

ZIPS
I hardly find ZIPs to be acredible source. You can not possibly predict how a player will do in the upcoming season. I'm sure it wouldn't have predicted how well Sele or Lofton or Saito or guys like Ramon Martinez did last year, and look how they turned out.
I think, therefore I love the Dodgers.

by DodgerinMaryland on Jan 29, 2007 7:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re
I don't take ZIPS as gospel, just use them as a nice jumping off point. At least this year, they tend to match how I feel. While it's entirely possible that someone will chance their way into a good season, do we really want to be counting on Mark Hendrickson stumbling his way into good starts? No one could have predicted how successful Sele was, but just because it happened last season, doesn't mean it will happen again.

by Andrew on Jan 29, 2007 7:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

ZIPS Gospel
It's impossible to correctly project every single player in major league baseball.  That is not the purpose, the goal, nor statistically possible.  The purpose is project the statistics of a player as accurately as possible.  ZIPS and some of the other projection systems did quite well last year.  ZIPS had the highest correlation for pitching projections among all the systems, and PECOTA the highest correlation among the hitting statistics.  There are variances in all projection systems, and you can hen peck a handful of players at the end of each year that exceeded or didn't meet their expected results.  Obviously, the game of baseball isn't played on paper, but without projections you cannot build a winner.  The more accurate your projections, the better off you are.
vr, Xei

by xeifrank on Jan 29, 2007 8:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Game Scores
For fans of this metric, here's where the Dodger starters ranked for this year according to their average:

Team AVG: 48.64

Kuo: 58.00
Stults: 56.50
Maddux: 53.42
Lowe: 51.59
Billingsley: 50.125
Penny: 49.76
Sele: 47.93
Tomko: 46.20
Seo: 45.20
Hendrickson: 42.00
Odalis: 33.25

by StolenMonkey86 on Jan 31, 2007 10:59 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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