I'm Going To Talk About The Minor Leagues For A Minute
by Andrew on May 24, 2007 12:07 PM PDT
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PrintKevin Goldstein covered the NL West farm systems for Baseball Prospectus today, and had a few interesting things to say about our minor leaguers.
The numbers agree with this assessment. Hu only hits line drives in 12.5% of his plate appearances, yet he has a BABIP of .386. When you regress him back to his natural .245 BABIP, his numbers crater to .217/.267/.360. Hu was classified as a no hit shortstop coming into this season, and that's what he still is.
This year was probably Dewitt's last chance for his performance to measure up to his tools, and he's done nothing with it. Even adjusting for balls in play doesn't help much. His BABIP jumping from .235 to .270 would only give him five extra hits, and would bump his average to a mere .250. DeWitt isn't striking out much, just 21 in 173 at bats, but he just isn't making solid contact. If his glove won't play in the middle infield, his time as a top prospect is over if he doesn't turn it around fast.
Denker is a nice story this year. After dropping off the map last year, he's come back with a strong start in the first two months of this year. He's slightly over performing his balls in play stats, but his adjusted line of .280/.358/.458 with a strikeout every 7.13 at bats is still very solid for a middle infielder. If he can survive a promotion to AA by the end of the year, he'd be a notable prospect once more.
Awesome.
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Dewitt's another Loney
Doesnt have a position due to the lack of production in his bat.
Loney's one good season of 2006, looks like a mirage when you compare it to his other ones.
Of course, at least Loney's had a good year. Dewitt's really done nothing.
by Joseph on May 24, 2007 8:46 PM PDT reply actions
On Hu
BABIP is one of the most flukey stats around, it's not even reliable for established vets in the Majors, why should it be for kids in the minors? Hu hits a lot of balls on the ground, which typically should be helpful for average espically when he's got some speed.
Anyway, we shall see.
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