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Around SBN: Dissecting Nick Diaz's Positive Drug Test

The Kids are Alright

Time after time this year the kids have picked up the Dodgers when the veterans of choice have washed out, and yet it appears management has no more confidence in the new set of kids then they did in the old set of kids when the season started.

At the beginning of the year we had Nomar at 1st base, and Loney was sent packing to AAA. As we hit June it was apparent to everyone but a van kissing homey, and management that Nomar was not getting the job done. So they save face with Nomar by moving him to 3b, and brought up Loney and he's done nothing but hit since they made the move.

Most observers thought that Matt Kemp would be the Dodger starting RF until management signed Luis Gonzalez and Juan Pierre. Kemp made the team out of ST but was destined for a job share program with Ethier when he literally hit the wall, and was put on the DL. While rehabbing they decide to let him stay in AAA. When he finally breaks the door down, he is in a job share with the 2nd best outfielder on the team not the 3rd or 4th. Finally as Gonzo loses steam, Kemp takes more of his playing time, and since Kemp showed up in the Dodger lineup he's been their most potent offensive weapon. Still the Dodgers shoot themselves in the foot more times then not by starting Pierre everyday while one of Kemp, Ethier, or Gonzalez sits. We won't even mention the hottest hitter in the PCL by the name of Delwyn Young.

Chad Billingsley started the season in the bullpen as management felt it would be better to watch Hendrickson, and then Tomko implode once again in the rotation. Once Jason Schmidt went down it was obvious he was at least the 4th best option for the rotation. It took a while but finally he was given the gig and he's now at the point where you could say he's the ace of the staff based on 2nd half performances.

Those three kids saved the Dodger season and they had to battle to get playing time not because the players they replaced were any good but because management just isn't comfortable giving kids playing time and just letting them play through the ups and downs of a season. Thank goodness that Loney, Kemp, and Billingsley have performed on a consistent basis, because we know the leash is shorter for them then for the stable of PVL players that management likes to surround themselves with.

Has that given the Dodgers anymore reason to trust the farm system? The answer appears to be a resounding NO. As we head into the stretch run we find washed up veterans still getting the call as the young one's sit for inexplicable reasons.

We traded a key pinch hitter, and our best utility player for a middle relief pitcher. At the time of the deal Jon Meloan was the best relief pitcher in AA baseball, bar none. He was striking out 14 batters per 9 innings.  Eric Hull was doing yeoman work for AAA Vegas at the same time. Instead of trusting either of these options we weakened our team with a trade that didn't need to happen. Then the worse thing did happen. Nomar got hurt after hitting just enough that he wasn't a liability at 3b anymore, and La Roche got hurt after ripping through the PCL in July like a tornado through Kansas. Since we had traded Betemit we had to sign Shea Hillenbrand. Not surprisingly, he was as bad as advertised. If management had a little trust in Meloan or Hull it didn't have to be like this. Proctor has been adequate, not great and not bad. It doesn't take much imagination to think that Hull or Meloan could also have been adequate.

Veterans Hendrickson and Tomko predictably fail. Management goes out and signs veterans Wells and Loaiza and ignores Stults and Houlton. This I understand. What I don't understand is why DJ Houlton never got a shot all this year. He had a very solid AAA campaign. He deserved a shot back in July when Tomko and Hendrickson were flailing.

The most grievous mistake I see right now is La Roche sitting on the pine while 1st Shea and now Nomar get those at bats. Shea is a shell of what used to be a decent major league hitter. Nomar is a shell of what used to be a great major league hitter. This is a pennant race, not a time for Nomar to get back into game shape after missing a month with a calf injury. When Grady put Nomar back into the lineup last Friday I assumed that he'd watched Nomar and felt he was ready to face major league pitching. Anyone who has seen Nomar since Friday would have to say he is not ready. The only reason he is playing is because he is a veteran. Meanwhile the guy who is probably only 2nd to Kemp on this team regarding offensive potential is sitting on the pine. He was given just a few games to get his feet wet and in those two games he gave us the best defense we'd seen at the position all year and contributed two key doubles. But he sits, and we know why, it is not because he's not more talented then the players who are playing, but because he hasn't been there before.

Last night was indicative of what could have been. The PVL combo of Seanez and Hernandez poured fuel on the fire while Houlton and Hull teamed up to try to keep the team in the game. Meloan continues to sit. He's now sat long enough that it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy when he does finally pitch because he'll be so rusty it is doubtful that he could be effective

Trust what got you here. The names are Billingsley, Kemp, Martin, Ethier, Loney, and Broxton. They could also be La Roche, DJ Houlton, Hull, D Young, Hu, and Meloan.

Furcal is so bad right now his only contribution comes on defense. If Hu is as good as advertised on defense, then maybe even he is an upgrade at SS right now.  

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I agree
with everything.  The only slack I would cut management is limiting Billingsley's innings in his first full season in the bigs by starting him out in the bullpen for the first couple of months.  I am not sure that is the reason why management did this, but that's the only scenario in which I'd cut them some slack.  You should get this blog entry printed in the LA Times.  
vr, Xei

by xeifrank @ True Blue LA on Sep 12, 2007 2:44 PM PDT reply actions  

yeah i agree
wholeheartedly. grady little has to be the worst manager to ever live.
matt kemp for president!

by wongy on Sep 12, 2007 5:03 PM PDT reply actions  

effin'a
Toy Cannon...can't disagree with you. Laroche deserves to play everyday.

by rayg @ True Blue LA on Sep 12, 2007 5:47 PM PDT reply actions  

Some of this
is as wrong as management, and for the same reasons.

Billingsly is not our Ace, even based only on second-half performances (though why you would do that, I do not know).  The only way to conclude that is to look at W-L record in the second half.  Penny and Lowe still have better peripherals, mostly because Billingsly still walks far too many batters.  He's good.  Definitely should have been playing all year or at least should have been playing consistently since Kou went down, but he is not our Ace.

LaRoche at 3rd?  Yes, certainly over Nomar and Shae.  The real mistake here, though, was not playing Betemit enough and then eventually trading him for Proctor.

Stop playing Furcal?  That is in the clearly wrong category.  He certainly has had a bad year, but there is little to indicate this is anything other than luck.  A lot of his OPS drop is because of batting average.  His LD% and GB% are mostly unchanged, but he has had a 30 point drop in BABIP from last year.  The one significant change is a drop in HR/FB% - now at an abysmal 3% (as compared to his typical 8.5%).  That, however, we knew from the start of the season when he was asked to play rather than rehab is foot.  Presumably, next year, it will be back to normal.  Persoanlly, I think your reaction is mostly caused by seeing Furcal's best season last year and his worst season this year, but not really thinking out why things changed.  Then you see Hu finally putting up a good performance in AA and AAA (although in Vegas he could not take a walk) and conclude that Hu is better.

management has certainly made a ton of mistakes with regard to it's veteran preference, but you are strongly overstating the case.

by Paul Scott on Sep 13, 2007 7:23 AM PDT reply actions  

I won't argue about Betemit
I'm on record as being a huge supporter of his. Given current knowledge about La Roche's back the trade of Betemit hurts even more.

Billingsley may not be a de facto ace at this stage like other teams number one, but at this point I'd rather have him pitching then Penny and to me that makes him our ace. The point was that Billingsley was certainly one of the top 5 starting pitchers on April 1st and while he did a great job in the bullpen I think we'd have been better served having him in the rotation from day one.

As far as Furcal and Hu go, you state yourself the arguement I would use. Furcal is still not healthy and his performance has suffered to the point where he is hurting the team. I'm not a big fan of players, playing hurt as though they are doing us a favor by playing at less then 100%, when there are viable alternatives.

by Phil Gurnee on Sep 13, 2007 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Billingsley over Penny?
On what basis?  You like the cut of Billingsly's jib?  If you really believe that, at least state a case for it.  The only thing he has over Penny is K/9.  He leads that by a fair margin, but a combination of HR/9 and BB/9 more than make up for that.  Penny also has a GB% of nearly 50% (compared to Billingsley's 40%).

As for Furcal, again you greatly overstate things.  He is not "hurting the team."  He is an average to below average SS offensively this year, largely due to injury and bad luck.  We have far worse problems (Pierre and Shae/Nomar) offensively than Furcal.  Additionally, what is you case for Hu being clearly the better choice?  300 PA against AA and AAA pitching in a hitter's environment?  Until this year Hu was a poor performer against a weaker field.  

by Paul Scott on Sep 13, 2007 12:04 PM PDT reply actions  

I like Penny
but much of his great season has been because of a historically low hr/9 rate. He's been lucky.

Data gleamed from Baseball HQ
Penny has posted a near-4.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons and that is more indicative of his skills then the sub 3.00 ERA he's currently carrying. He has a declining Dom rate offset by the miniscule home run rate. The home rate smells lucky to me.

Year  Ctl  Dom  HR/9  BPV
2005  2.1  6.3   0.8   74
2006  2.6  7.0   0.9   73
2007  3.1  5.9   0.2   57

His ERA this year is at the elite level for two reasons: a 77% S% and a 3% HR/FB%. The 49/21/30 G/L/F support his low HR/9, but his tiny HR/FB% is not sustainable.

His xERA is 3.99 which is a better indicator for his season. Chad's is 3.86.

Thus my choice for Chad over Brad today and in the future.

by Phil Gurnee on Sep 13, 2007 1:10 PM PDT reply actions  

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$112,162,432

For more detailed information, click here.

Players on 40-man roster used as roster
fillers until moves are made.

Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
56 Matt Chico lhp
29
33 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25
28 Jamey Wright rhp
37

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
65 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
37 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

*Age on June 30, 2012

NRI count: 20

For more info, click here.


Manager

Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

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