Not much to report today. The Phillies took a 2-0 series lead over the Dodgers in the NLCS, which is depressing. Meanwhile, the Red Sox took a 1-0 lead over the Rays. You can follow all of SBNation's postseason coverage at our playoff hub:

No real news from Metsland, so here are Friday's winter league results.

Arizona Fall League

Peoria Saguaros 7, Peoria Javelinas 5

• Daniel Murphy (2B) went 2-for-2 with a two-run homer, two walks and two runs scored.
• Josh Thole (C) went 1-for-3 with a walk and a run scored.
• Bobby Parnell started the game, going one inning and allowing a hit while striking out two.
• Jason Vargas tossed three shutout innings, allowing a hit and a walk, striking out three.

Hawaiian Winter Baseball

Honolulu Sharks 10, North Shore Honu 4

• Ruben Tejada (SS) went 2-for-4 with 2 RBI and a run scored.
• Greg Veloz (2B) went 2-for-4 with a walk and two runs scored, but made his seventh (!) error in just ten games.
• Jordan Abruzzo (DH) went 1-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored.

I can't help but agree with Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball, who says that Aaron Heilman should be cut a little slack. I count myself among a shrinking list of Heilman supporters, and would be disappointed if the Mets sold extremely low by shipping him out of town this offseason. Healey sums up Heilman's lost season in 2008:

The fact of the matter is, Aaron Heilman deserves the benefit of the doubt from the Mets, the fans and the media. He pitched through an injury this year that didn't only curtail his ability to stay on his regular workout regimen, but also likely altered his mechanics and effectiveness of his slider and change, the latter being his best pitch.

I'm not going to make excuses for Heilman: He stunk up the joint something fierce in 2008. Maybe he was hurt (I think we tend to underestimate the impact that injuries, even small ones, can have on a player's performance), but he was clearly dreadful. I take solace in the fact that his strikeout rate and fastball velocity were both very impressive, and I like to think that the 1.10 WHIP or so that he averaged from 2005-2007 is more indicative of his established level of performance than his putrid 2008. I'll grant that we should weight 2008 more heavily than those other seasons, but right now this past season seems like the outlier in an otherwise impressive career as a reliever.

There's a Carlos Beltran-to-the-Yankees rumor out there that I won't even link to for fear that its utter prepoculosity might engulf us all.

Arizona Fall League

Peoria Saguaros 9, Mesa Solar Sox 2

• Daniel Murphy played second base for Peoria and went 0-for-4 with a walk and a run scored.
• Non-prospect Shawn Bowman had a huge game, going 2-for-3 with a two-run homer, a walk and four RBI.
• Eddie Kunz pitched a scoreless ninth, striking out two.

Hawaiian Winter Baseball

Honolulu Sharks 4, Waikiki BeachBoys, 0

• Second baseman Greg Veloz went 0-for-2 for Honolulu with a walk.
• Shortstop Ruben Tejada went 1-for-1 with two walks and a run scored. Tejada was awful at St. Lucie this year, but at 19 years old he was a solid four years younger than the average hitter in the Florida State League.
• Roy Merritt struck out two and picked up a hold in a scoreless eighth inning.

If you were asked to guess the player with the highest walk rate (BB%) among Met hitters with at least 100 plate appearances in 2008, who might you throw out there? Carlos Beltran walks a lot, and he'd likely be my guess. David Wright also has great plate discipline, so he'd probably be a solid choice. Neither? Hmm. I see where this is going. Someone not-so-obvious. Got it: Dan Murphy. No? Gah, !@#$ me. Fine, who?

A: Luis Castillo.

Bingo. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, the player who seems to be universally hated by fans and management alike, whose name precedes some variant of "absolutely has to be traded" on almost every Mets offseason wishlist, was the most disciplined hitter the Mets had this year. Care to guess how many regular second basemen walked at a better rate than Castillo? Zero. Or how many non-OF/1B/DH types did so? Four: Dave Ross, Chipper Jones, Craig Counsell and Ramon Santiago. Castillo's 14.4% BB% was 28th in all of baseball and his 1.43 BB/K rate (walks per strikeout) was 6th in the majors. He also stole 17 bases in 19 attempts, which is kind of astounding considering how hobbled he looked most of the time.

Of course, he doesn't hit for any power and his defense was terrible last year (his .751 RZR would have ranked dead last among NL second basemen had he played enough innings to qualify), though he has historically been a pretty good defensive player, and his lack of range this past season can certainly be attributed in part to his bad knees. There's no guarantee that his knees have gotten appreciably better, but he seemed to move around a bit better late in the season, whatever that's worth.

If we are to believe what we hear, the Mets may look to dump Castillo this offseason. Personally, I think that'd be a mistake, especially if they'd have to take on some other bad contract in return. Castillo is nothing special, but a second baseman who can steal bases and draw walks as Castillo can has plenty of value. That doesn't acquit Omar Minaya of signing him to that horrible contract, but if Castillo can stay somewhat healthy he is something quite different from useless. He's not Chase Utley or Dan Uggla, but he's also not what's holding the Mets back from becoming a championship team.

Who might be out there to replace Castillo if the Mets decided to trade him or relegate him to $6 million pinch-hitting duties? Orlando Hudson's name gets thrown around, though RZR rates his defense as one of the worst in the National League over the past three seasons, including dead last in 2008. His bat would be a huge upgrade over Castillo's, but at what cost? Four years and $40 million, plus the Mets' first round draft pick (or second-rounder, if their first goes to the Dodgers or Brewers or whomever else)?

The Mets might be better off trying to finagle a trade for the Orioles' Brian Roberts, who has been good-to-great defensively, draws plenty of walks, hits for some power, and is a prolific base-stealer. Roberts is set to make $8 million in 2009 in the final year of a two-year extension he signed in 2007. The Cubs tried relentlessly to pry Roberts from the O's last offseason to no avail, though Baltimore may be more inclined to trade Roberts this winter if they thought:

(a) they had no chance of competing in 2009 (they don't), and
(b) they could get something of substance in return

I don't know if that means the Mets would have to give up a Jon Niese or a Fernando Martinez to get someone of Roberts's talents, but I would at least try like hell to make something happen. I've personally been a big fan of Roberts's for three or four years now, hoping he'd find his way into a Mets uniform one of these days.

Internally, the Mets don't have a lot of options. Actually, that's not really true; they have options, they're just mostly terrible ones. Argenis Reyes is pretty clearly not the answer. He's almost as bad a hitter as Anderson Hernandez was in his time with the Mets, and the novelty of having a Reyes-Reyes double-play combination does not offset the fact that Argenis brings zero to the table offensively. Damion Easley is a free agent, and I'd be surprised (disappointed?) if the Mets brought him back. He had a nice year with them in 2007 and a couple of big moments in 2008, but for the most part he was either hurt or unproductive for the better part of the season. He'll also be 39 in November.

The only interesting name within the Mets' organization who could conceivably help the Mets next season is Daniel Murphy, who is currently seeing playing time at second base in the Arizona Fall League. The Mets have said that they have no intention of moving him to 2B in 2009, but my guess is that the front office is simply hedging its bets in case Murphy is a complete disaster at the keystone. Odds are good that Murphy will be pretty bad, as he's moving from an easier defensive position (left field, or even third base which he played in the minors) to a much more difficult one. However, if Murphy turns out to be even adequate defensively at second base, the Mets will have found a real gem. His bat doesn't appear to be strong enough to carry a corner outfield spot, but it would be plenty productive at second, and the Mets would have a young, cheap, homegrown talent to go along with David Wright and Jose Reyes in the infield for years to come. Don't pencil him in just yet; he's still a long shot to be anything more than a failed experiment.

At all events, if we enumerate the Mets' shortcomings in 2008, lack of a solid second baseman would not be especially high on that list. Sure, every bit helps, but pitching -- both starting and relieving -- will have to be the priorities this offseason. If something falls in their lap to improve the team at second base, gravy, but I don't expect the Mets to spend a whole lot of time worrying about it.

We've talked about Manny Ramirez a bit in this space lately, and I think the vast majority of us would be in favor of the Mets bringing him in on a three-year deal at aging superstar money (~$15-17 million per season). Well, you can count Wallace Matthews among those dissenting voices in the crowd. His argument? They should've traded for him in July when the price was "low":

They, along with every other team in baseball, had their shot at Manny in July, when the increasingly tense relationship between him and the Red Sox finally reached its breaking point. Things had gotten so bad that the Red Sox were happy to pay the remaining $7 million on his contract just to be rid of him. They probably would have thrown in a ride to the airport.

After the trade, I remarked about how much the Red Sox gave up for Jason Bay, but within that comment we see what the Dodgers gave up for Ramirez. The key to that deal for the Sox was Dodgers third base prospect Andy LaRoche (now with the Pirates), who was ranked before the 2008 season as the 14th best prospect in baseball by Kevin Goldstein. The Mets' highest ranked prospect at the time was Fernando Martinez, who was 51st. Even if you call the two players a wash, would anyone have actually considered a Martinez-for-two-months-of-Ramirez swap a steal for the Mets? Or even a good deal? Signing Ramirez this offseason will cost them money and probably a draft pick, but the 25th pick in the draft < Fernando Martinez.

Tony Bernazard, the Mets' VP of player development, is interviewing for the Mariners' GM position. I have no idea if his departure would be good or bad for the Mets; I guess it depends on the likely replacement.

Ambiorix Burgos could face up to two years in jail if convicted of abandoning victims and fleeing the scene of a hit-and-run in the Dominican Republic. The two victims of the accident -- a 29-year-old woman and a 38-year-old woman -- both died at the scene. If that wasn't bad enough, there's this:

The news comes after the mother of one of the two victims accused Burgos of intentionally running her daughter over because she refused to go out with him.

Gah! Obviously, there's a huge difference between a car accident and a car "accident". The Mets need relief pitching, but not this badly.

A number of Mets minor leaguers are kickin' it in winter ball, with some prospects playing in the Arizona Fall League with the Peoria Saguaros (saguaros = large cactus) and some others playing Hawaiian Winter Baseball with the Honolulu Sharks.

Saguaros 10, Scottsdale Scorpions, 7

• Josh Thole, catcher , 0-3, 2 BB, 1 R (St. Lucie). Thole hit .300/.382/.427 in 347 at-bats as a 21-year-old with St. Lucie in 2008. He didn't distinguish himself in three prior minor league seasons with the Mets, but an .809 OPS as a catcher is certainly encouraging.

Honolulu 3, Waikiki BeachBoys 1

• Josh Stinson, RHP, 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO (St. Lucie). Stinson is 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in HWB action so far.
• Greg Veloz, 2B, 0-2, 1 BB, 1R (St. Lucie).
• Roy Merritt, LHP, .1 IP, 1H, 1R, 1HR (St. Lucie)

Lastly, though it was with sadness that the NY Sun closed up shop at the end of September, it's nice to see that Tim Marchman picked up new gigs with the Wall Street Journal and Slate. Baseball journalism wouldn't be the same without him.

I love stats. I acknowledge their flaws, and I certainly don't believe they tell you everything there is to know about baseball (does anyone actually?), but they really are just a lot of fun to pore over. Thanks to countless intrepid folks who have contributed the ways and means for distributing and disseminating baseball statistics, we have the tools available to learn far more about the game and its players than we ever have before.

One ridiculously useful site for baseball statistics (among other things) is FanGraphs, which is where all of the stats for this article (as well as the WPA graphs in my daily recaps) were extracted from. I wanted to take some time to look at the Mets' pitchers, their pitch velocities and pitch selection from 2008, so let's do just that.

Fastballs

The fastball is almost every pitcher's bread-and-butter. Better than 85% of pitchers threw fastballs at least half the time. Almost 11% threw their heater three-quarters of the time or more. Three guys threw 90% fastballs, though only one -- Tampa Bay's Grant Balfour (91.3%) did so over a significant number of innings. Eddie Kunz threw a higher percentage of fastballs than anyone else in baseball (92.3%), but he only threw a total of 55 pitches.

So folks throw a lot of fastballs. But how fast do they throw 'em? Here are the average fastball speeds for Mets pitchers this season.

It shouldn't be surprising that relievers dominate the top of this list. They come into a game for an inning at a time -- if that -- and can really air it out because they know they've only got 20 or so pitches before they hit the showers. Whereas starting pitchers have to pace themselves, relievers don't have to show such restraint. Anyone watching Mets games the last two months of the season has seen that Brian Stokes throws gas, and this chart corroborates that observation.

Mike Pelfrey had the fastest average heater among Mets starting pitchers at 92.7 MPH; Pedro Martinez had the slowest at 87.7. If that looks a little low, consider that his average fastball in limited action in 2007 was 86.2 MPH, so 87.7 is a clear improvement.

Of some concern is Johan Santana's average heater speed of 91.2. He was at 91.7 in 2007 with the Twins, and while a half-mile per hour doesn't seem like much now, it's definitely something worth keeping an eye on as he adds years to his ledger and mileage to his arm. His slider speed dropped (84.9 to 83.5) as did his changeup (81.9 to 80.0). The good news is that the disparity in speed between his fastball and changeup actually increased, though the velocity dip across the board is hardly encouraging. Whether that had anything to do with the deterioration in his strikeout rate (9.66 to 7.91 per nine innings) is not yet clear.

For those curious types, the fastest average fastball belonged to Joel Zumaya at 97.5 MPH. The slowest belonged to Tim Wakefield (72.9), though the slowest non-knuckleballer was Chad Bradford at 79.6. The slowest non-knuckler, non-sidearmer was Jamie Moyer for the fiftieth consecutive season at 81.2 MPH. The average big league fastball was thrown at 90.5 MPH.

Pitch Types

Let's move on from pitch speed and on to pitch selection. Here is the breakdown of pitch type for all Mets pitchers this season, sorted by highest fastball frequency.

(FB=fastball, SL=slider, CB=curveball, CH=changeup, CT=cutter)

One thing that jumps out immediately is that the Mets have a lot of pitchers who all sport basically the same arsenal: Fastball, slider, changeup. Jon Niese, Brian Stokes and Pedro Martinez preferred the curveball to the slider, and Niese and Martinez threw some cutters, but otherwise everyone threw the same three types of pitch. I'm a little surprised that the Mets lacked a single pitcher who throws a split-fingered fastball. Approximately one in eight (11.7%) big league pitchers threw at least 1% splitters in 2008; none threw them for the Mets. The splitter can wreak havoc on a pitcher's elbow, and who's to say that Rick Peterson didn't have a hand in steering the Mets away from that sort of injury risk. We know he was a mechanics freak, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that he advised the Mets to avoid pitchers who featured a splitter.

Quick Hits

• Jose Contreras led all qualified starters with splitters accounting for 24.6% of his pitches.
• Taylor Buchholz threw more curveballs than anyone else (34.9%).
• Tom Glavine threw 43.2% changeups, more than anyone else.
• The Cubs' Mike Wuertz threw 60.8% sliders, again, more than anyone else.
• Four pitchers were regular knuckleballers: Wakefield, Charlie Zink (Red Sox), Charlie Haeger (Padres) and R.A. Dickey (Rangers).
• Two others threw at least one knuckleball: Josh Banks (Padres) and Ryan Franklin (Cardinals), though the latter threw them so infrequently (.4%) that they were probably changeups or curveballs that were simply mis-categorized.
• The Angels' Darren O'Day threw 2.5% of his 671 pitches for pitch-outs.
• C.C. Sabathia threw more pitches overall than any other big leaguer: 3,814. NL Cy Young candidate Tim Lincecum was second at 3,682, and Sabathia's fellow free agent-to-be A.J. Burnett threw 3,650. Johan Santana was fifth with 3,598 pitches tossed.

Don't forget that the SBN 2008 Postseason Hub is an ideal landing spot for our coverage of this year's postseason action. All of the latest coverage from the remaining playoff teams can be found there, or directly at Over The Monster, DRays Bay, True Blue LA and The Good Phight.

Believe it or not, a lot of folks don't realize that we've got a whole network of baseball blogs, including one each for every big league team, one for minor league content, one for scouting and one for statistics-mongering. Most of them are as good or better than this site, so if you're looking for news or information on any other major league teams, go check out the SBN site first, ESPN and the other guys second.

Here's a fun time-killer. Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Sky Kalkman provides a list of 31 (?) pairs of MLB players from 2008. For each pair, you're to guess whether:

1. Player A was at least ten runs more valuable than player B
2. Player B was at least ten runs more valuable than Player A
3. The two players were roughly equivalent in value

Value in runs is based on Justin's TotalValue ratings, which are conveniently available in spreadsheet form for pitchers and position players. Don't cheat, though; see how many of the 31 you can get right.

Dan Szymborski has started releasing his 2009 ZiPS projections over at Baseball Think Factory, and though he hasn't posted the Mets' projections yet, there are still a couple of neat features that have been posted lately. Both are related to minor league analysis

The first is a spreadsheet of 2008 minor league translations, which are major league equivalences of minor league data. In short: What this year's minor leaguers could reasonably have been expected to do were they to have played in the big leagues instead.

For instance, given his performance this past year in the minors, Fernando Martinez might've hit .231/.270/.342. Francisco Pena might've hit .211/.244/.295. Jon Niese might've posted a 4.50 ERA.

The other great feature is a list of 2008 minor league park factors, which were calculated using Jeff Sackmann's Minor League Splits. Minor league park factors are especially useful if you want to see whether a particular hitter's or pitcher's performance was artificially inflated/deflated by the environment he spent half of his playing time in. Here are the park factors for all of the Mets' affiliates this past season.

In other minor league news, Baseball America has revealed the 2009 amateur draft order, and the Mets are slated to pick 25th. Smart money is on that pick going to the Brewers, Dodgers, or some other team with a marquee free agent changing uniforms this winter.

As JoshNY pointed out in this FanPost, the Mets are auctioning off memorabilia from the dismantling of Shea Stadium. Among the items are a turnstile, a locker from the visitor's locker room, the American flag from Shea's roof, and much more. No urinals, though maybe they'll add more stuff as the weeks go on.

The free agent rumors are already swirling, and Lord Boras is letting teams know that, despite the fact that Manny Ramirez is firmly entrenched in this year's playoffs, his client is looking for five years and $85 million. That's about two years and $35 million too much if you ask me.

Interestingly, Ramirez's god awful defense in left improved substantially when he moved from Fenway's bizarro-world dimensions to those of the more traditionally-shaped Dodger Stadium. His RZR as a Red Sox was .817 this season; it was .895 with the Dodgers. That would have ranked him fourth out of nine qualified NL left fielders. Now, left field is usually where you stick your worst fielder who isn't already playing first base, but even adequate fielding coupled with Ramirez's bat is a mighty fine combination.

MLB has released their list of potential free agents of this coming offseason (or, the current offseason for 26 teams including the Mets). The Mets have 13 players who could become free agents (not including players not yet eligible for free agency who could theoretically be non-tendered), which is second in quantity to the Dodgers, who have 14 players on the list. Mets listed are:

• Moises Alou
• Tony Armas Jr.
• Luis Ayala
• Carlos Delgado (club option)
• Damion Easley
• Orlando Hernandez
• Pedro Martinez
• Ramon Martinez
• Trot Nixon
• Oliver Perez
• Ricardo Rincon
• Fernando Tatis
• Matt Wise

How many of these guys stand even a 50/50 chance of coming back? Delgado. Maybe Tatis in a backup role. Ehh, that's probably it. Some of them could still return, but few are likely to do so.

If you want to know how a team with a $138 million payroll can miss the playoffs, take a gander at the lineup. Not that one. I mean the one in queue outside the trainer's room. Injuries are a part of the game, and some players certainly carry higher risks of injury than others. Older players and players with prior health problems are obvious candidates for a trip or two to the disabled list. Especially high-risk individuals are those injury double-threats: Aging players who have a laundry list of past ailments and afflictions (see: Alou, Moises).

Every team suffers its share of games lost to the disabled list. The Yankees had Jorge Posada, Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain all spend time on the shelf; the Red Sox missed David Ortiz, Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling for varying lengths of time; the Braves missed Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine at one point or another, so the Mets clearly aren't on an island with respect to busted goods.

I wanted to know exactly how many man-games the Mets lost due to injury this season. So, armed with their transaction ledger, salary data, schedule and my trusty spreadsheet, I had a look-see at how many games individual Mets players missed while on the disabled list. A few caveats:

• I only counted time on the disabled list; missed games while injured but on the active roster were not counted.
• I guesstimated slightly with respect to the day a player went on/came off the disabled list. As a rule, and to be conservative, I counted both days as days on the active roster (i.e. *not* disabled list days).
• For the sake of simplicity, I counted pitcher missed days the same as hitter missed days. I figured it wasn't worth the added complexity of figuring out missed starts, etc., so all team games were treated equally.
• I didn't include Tony Armas's or Trot Nixon's missed days because #$%^ 'em, that's why.

Having said that, here are the results:

Nine-hundred and sixteen missed games at an average cost-per-game of $26,229.35 for a grand total of $25,961,163.30 of lost wages due to injury. That's almost $26 million, which will pay for C.C. Sabathia's 2009 salary, among other things. For poops and pickles, if the Mets had that money back their 2008 payroll would have been more like $112 million, not $138 million. To be honest, I have no idea how much the Mets team attrition compares to other clubs, but 916 games is a ton of missed time.

Keep in mind that I only included players whom the Mets could have reasonably expected to be on their 25-man roster for the whole season. Here's the positional breakdown:

• Starting pitching: 250 games, $11,032,228.11
• Relief pitching: 207 games, $4,322,530.86
• Infield: 65 games, $2,507,716.05
• Outfield: 195 games, $6,435,185.19
• Bench: 199 games, $972,145.06

Even with all of these injuries the Mets still had a great chance to make the playoffs this season. I'd be making excuses if I blamed their having fallen short on bad health, though it'd be equally naive to suggest that their physical breakdowns didn't play any role in their ultimate demise. To have four players from your would-be active roster miss at least 125 games apiece and not have your record suffer to some degree is unrealistic. Plenty of blame still falls on Omar Minaya for not having reasonable contingency plans for some of these guys, most notably Alou and Hernandez, who were safe bets to miss significant time in any given year. Still, a little more luck in the health department and we might not be grinding our teeth bitterly as we watch other teams take their hacks at baseball history.

Bob Klapisch writes that the Mets and Yankees could wind up in a bidding war with each other over the services of C.C. Sabathia. The Yankees have more money to spend, but the Mets can offer Sabathia the opportunity to step into the batter's box every fifth day. Sabathia is from California and many believe he is pining for a west coast return. He'll likely command a contract in the neighborhood of Johan Santana's (think six or seven years, $20-$25 million a year), but the thought of Santana and Sabathia starting 70 games next year is drool-worthy.

The Mets are negotiating with Jerry Manuel to bring him back as manager. Jerry is playing hard-to-get, though the Mets are apparently unlikely to go beyond two years, $1.5 million or so. In the same article, David Lennon speculates that, should things fall apart with Manuel, the Mets might make a push to bring Bobby Valentine back to the states. While I have my doubts that Valentine is even interested in leaving Japan, if I thought he might consider it I would toss Manuel into the nearest dumpster and make my way to the Pacific Rim asap.

Kevin Kernan jumps on the Francisco Rodriguez bandwagon. I think the money is better spent elsewhere, and would sooner hand out less money over less years to Kerry Wood (despite last night's flimsy effort) or Brian Fuentes. Despite his gaudy save totals, I find Rodriguez less appealing now than Billy Wagner was before the Mets signed him three years ago. The age difference is considerable, obviously, but Wagner had much better control than Rodriguez with similar strikeout rates.

The Mets are probably going to pick up Carlos Delgado's option at $12 million, which only costs the Mets $8 million relative to the $4 million buyout he would be owed if the Mets declined the option. If Delgado returns, even for one season, that likely means Mark Teixeira and Adam Dunn are off the table, though Dunn could conceivably "play" a corner outfield spot.

Following in lock-step with the Mets' once-promising season, Shea Stadium is now being dismantled. Follow the link for a video of some of the demo work being done.