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Mar 19, 2008 Oct 06, 2008 2261 3149

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Week Five Answers: San Diego Chargers 10 Miami Dolphins 17

Q: Can RB Ladainian Tomlinson dispel all notions that he is no longer the best RB in fantasy football?

A: No.  His toe injury was aggravated in the loss to the Dolphins.  With just 35 yards, LT's perceived value is heavily dependent on his past performance.  In his defense (and aren't all LT fans making this kind of excuse?), the Chargers barely had the ball (23:19).  However (and every LT defense has one of these), the game was within reach the entire time so abandoning the run was not necessary.

Q: How does RB Ronnie Brown follow-up his 5 TD Week Three effort?

A: Like any Miami Dolphins/Ronnie Brown fan hoped he would! 24 carries for 125 yards and a TD.  Even more impressive were the wide receivers who caught 16 of Chad Pennington's 22 completions after entering the game having caught fewer than 50% of them.

Fantasy Player To Trade: QB Philip River.  He has thrown 11 TDs, but looks to be coming back to Earth some.  He has tossed just one TD in each of the past two games.  With the crap that populates the lower half of the QB pool, Rivers should still garner 4th round value.

Poll
What is more likely to happen?
  • Ladainian Tomlinson returns to his pre-2008 form.
  • The Miami Dolphins win 6 games.

  0 votes | Results

0 comments | 0 recs |

Week Five Answers: Atlanta Falcons 27 Green Bay Packers 24

Q: Is RB Michael Turner a poor road performer or just a RB who can't get things going against good rush defenses?

A: The latter.  What shocks me is the mainstream fantasy media was all over Turner as a poor road performer without considering the quality of defense he faced.  His performance was acceptable in all formats, but the lack of receptions handicaps him in PPR formats when he faces the better rush defenses.

Q: Will RB Ryan Grant carry the offense without QB Aaron Rodgers?

A: The is unaswerable and Aaron Rodgers got the start and threw for 300+ and 3 TDs to lead the Green Bay packers' near comeback.  Grant did have his best game of the year, though.  Whehter 83 yards against the Atlanta Falcons defense is enough is another story.

Fantasy Player To Trade: WR Roddy White.  Coming off his third consectuive 90+ yard receving game, there is little doubt that his 2007 was for real.  He was likely drafted in the 5th round and now should get 3rd round value.

Poll
Did RB Ryan Grant's 83 rushing yards mark the return of the late 2nd round/early third round pick?
  • Yes. Do I have any other choice but to believe?
  • No. He has to do it against a middling rush defense first.

  5 votes | Results

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Week Five Answers: Chicago Bears 34 Detroit Lions 7

 Q: Will the Bears rush the ball well enough to protect the passing game?

A: QB Kyle Orton threw for 334 yards and two TDs so apparently the 36 yards each Matt Forte and Kevin Jones rushed for was enough.  For whatever it is worth, Orton has played well enough that he is a viable option in weeks that fantasy teams' two QBs are unavailable.  This was his third consecutive week with at least two TD passes.

Q: Coming off the bye, can the Lions be effective on offense (RBs Rudi Johnson and Kevin Smith, QB Jon Kitna and WRs Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams)?

A: As emphatically as I can say, "Hell freakin' no!"  I would still understate how ineffective this offense is.  It can neither run nor pass, and whoever is doing either cannot do it well.  And that hurts as I am an University of Connecticut alumni and a proud owner of a Dan Orlovsky Detroit Lions' jersey.  For reasons unexplainable by talent on paper, WRs Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams are unable to elevate the passing game.

Fantasy Player To Trade:  WR Calvin Johnson.  He remains elite, but his offense cannot support his talent.

Poll
Am I premature recommending Calvin Johnson owners look to capture late 2nd/early 3rd round value for him?
  • Yes.
  • No.

  5 votes | Results

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Week Five Answers: Kansas City Chiefs 0 Carolina Panthers 34

Q: Does RB Larry Johnson produce enough to shift responsibility for this loss to the passing game?

A: Let me understate the answer.  Hell no!  Larry Johnson rushed seven times for two yards and was not the recipient of one of the two KC QBs' 15 completions.

Q: Can RBs D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart run enough to "hurt" the fantasy value of WRs Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammed?

A: D'Angelo Williams rushed for 123 yards, 2 TDs and caught a third.  Jonathan Stewart rushed for 72 yards, and this question was answered in the negative.  Smith had 96 yards and Muhammed had 71 with a TD.  These four accounted for 362 of the Panthers' 441 rushing and receiving yards.  Fantasy players would take that type of concentration from each and every team, each and every week.

Fantasy Player To Trade:  WR Dwayne Bowe.  He has established himself as a WR2 in PPR formats, but the Chiefs will struggle to score TDs through the air.  Cash in his 10-13 points per week.

Poll
Which Kansas City Chief can you get draft day value for in trade?
  • RB Larry Johnson
  • WR Dwayne Bowe
  • TE Tony Gonzalez

  11 votes | Results

2 comments | 0 recs |

Start Or Sit: Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Just as the Philadelphia Eagles kept people on pins and needles awaiting the start/sit decision on RB Brian Westbrook, this week the Green Bay Packers are doing the same thing with QB Aaron Rodgers, and, to an extent, the Cincinnati Bengals are doing it with QB Carson Palmer.  In both cases, the back-up QB is bad enough to dimish the value of the entire offense.

We already know what Bengal's QB Ryan Fitzpatrick can do to the production of WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson along with RB Chris Perry.  Can Green Bay Packers' QB Matt Flynn keep WR Greg Jennings in elite company?  No.  Can he be effective enough to keep the the opposing defense from stacking the line to stop an already-struggling Ryan Grant?

More important, what does a fantasy footballer do if he has Aaron Rodgers or Carson Palmer, and his 2nd QB is on bye?  Does he gamble and hope each will start?  What if the options are Gus Frerotte, Kyle Orton, Kerry Collins or Brian Griese?

Unlike the Westbrook decision, the alternative QB will produce stats.  Are any of them likely to go for 250+ yards and 2+ Tds?  No (and if yours is, then start him).  But each will likely throw for 150-200 yards with a TD.  In this case, it is safer to get that production than be stuck with either QB being active but 2nd string or being pulled early in the game.

FWIW, Brian Westbrook practiced on Friday, and I'd start him.

Poll
Do you agree sitting Rodgers is the better decision in fantasy football than starting him?
  • Yes
  • No

  43 votes | Results

3 comments | 0 recs |

NFL: Week Five Questions

This week's byes are being taken by the Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams,  and New York Jets.  With three of these four teams being very disappointing, there are a surprising number of fantasy football starters amongst them.  Fortunately, bad teams' fantasy starters tend to be less productive than their perceived values.  A Le'Ron McClain or Rudi Johnson can provide enough production for the team who has to replace RB Steven Jackson for a week or Jamaal Lewis.

Tougher will be finding a replacement for Packers' QB Aaron Rodgers if your back-up was Brett Favre, Marc Bulger or Derek Anderson.  After QB JaMarcus Russell's production against the San Diego Chargers, even he would have been a free agent pool option.  Instead one is left scrambling amongst the likes of Gus Frerotte, Kerry Collins, Kyle Orton, Matt Ryan, Brian Griese and Joe Flacco.  Yikes.

The answers I seek will come the following list of questions.

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The Top Ten Rush Defenses

Poor Deuce McAllister. He is handed the rushing portion of starting RB job for the New Orleans Saints and gets to run into the Minnesota Vikings. Hopefully, no one is counting on Deuce to win their fantasy game this week. This one smells like last week's Rashard Mendenhall verus Baltimore match-up - 15 carries for 40 yards.

If you don't wonder what was real and what was not following Ronnie Brown's 5 TD Week three effort, then you don't play fantasy football. The Miami Dolphins face a stout San Diego Chargers rush defense without the aid of a keep'em-honest receivng corps. How Ronnie Brown does against the Chargers is going to make or break many fantasy teams excitement.

The New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks face-off in New Jersye with opposing top ten rush defenses. Both teams lack multiple receiving weapons, and the Giants prefer to run. Will WR Plaxico Burress' absence lead to the Giants being upset coming out of their bye? Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck gets two NFL wide receivers to throw to for the first time this season. This smells like an upset.

The Ten Best Rush Defenses:

RankTeamRYAVs
1 Minnesota 49.3 @NO
2 Philadelphia 59.7 WAS
3 Baltimore 71 TEN
4 Washington 71.7 @PHI
5 Pittsburgh 73.7 @JAX
6 Seattle 77.5 @NYG
7 Miami 80 SD
8 NY Jets 84.3 BYE
9 NY Giants 85 SEA
10 San Diego 86 @MIA

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The Ten Worst Rush Defenses

The slate of RBs who face awful rush defenses is a long one - Houston Texan Steve Slaton, Carolina Panthers D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, San Francisco 49er Frank Gore, Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcon Michael Turner, Green Bay Packer Ryan Grant, Indianapolis Colt Joseph Addai, whoever starts for the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboy's Marion Barber III. This is not the week for your team to be weak because of byes.

One question that will be answered this weekend is whether Falcons' RB Michael Turner can't run against good defenses or can only run effectively at home. His two horrible games were on the road and against good defenses. My guess is it is the good run defenses that cause him problems.

The Falcons/Packers game also offers RB Ryan Grant the chance to have a good game as the Falcons can't stop the run. if he can't run well in this game, then it is time to grab his back-ups and expect a demotion.

The Ten Worst Rush Defenses:

RankTeamRYAVs
32 Indianapolis 208 @HOU
31 Kansas City 193.3 @CAR
30 St. Louis 185.3 BYE
29 New England 160 @SF
28 Detroit 152.5 CHI
27 Atlanta 151.7 @GB
26 Green Bay 148 ATL
25 Houston 146.5 IND
24 Cincinnati 142.7 @DAL
23 San Francisco 129.7 NE

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2008 Awards ballots

Here is the link to the ballots for CY Young, MVP and ROY.  I'll close them near the end of the WS.

http://www.faketeams.com/2008/10/2/626060/2008-mvp-cy-young-roy-ball

 

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The Top 10 Pass Defenses

The most interesting match-up amongst the teams ranked in the top 10 for Passing Yards Against is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos game. The Broncos passing game is soooo good, head coach Mike Shannahan refused to run against the mushy Kansas City rush defense last week. Even scarier for the Broncos, the Bucs ranked 13th in rushing yards allowed.

QB Jay Cutler, WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal along with TE Steve Scheffler have been too good so far to sit. But do not be surprised to see them lay an egg and cost you your match-up this week.

Another intriguing match-up has the 4-0 Buffalo Bills travelling to the desert to face the prolific passing game of the Arizona Cardinals minus WR Anquan Boldin. Last week against the New York Jets, the Cardinals showed they will keep passing no matter what. However, the Bills rush defense is 21st over the last week weeks. RB Edgerrin James could have a solid game, but my money is being laid on the Cards passing the ball and letting QB Kurt Warner win or lose the game again.

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