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Projections And Other Stuff

From Marc Normandin's chat on Baseball Prospectus:

Andrew (LA): You mentioned the Dodgers digging themselves into a hole, but what do you think of the NL West in 2007?

Marc Normandin: I think the NL West is going to be one of the more fun divisions to watch, with the Padres and D'backs fighting at the top, and the Dodgers and Rockies both capable of making some noise. There are some pretty good teams out there, but no one seems to give them much credit, for whatever reason.

I realize I tend to be pretty negative about the Dodgers, but I still think that they're the favorites as of this moment. Putting them below the Padres and the Diamondbacks at this moment is kind of scary. Am I alone in thinking that the Dodgers are still a step ahead of the rest of the division?

Update: Some more from the chat:

Andrew (LA): What wins out: The Dodger's farm system or Ned Colletti's inability to evaluate talent?

Marc Normandin: Depends on who leaves first, Logan White or Ned Colletti. As long as White is there, they should have the draft picks to trade for talent, but Colletti is going to have to bring in more of a haul than he has thus far in order to make the system more effective.

Thanks for stopping by Andrew. Andrew blogs at True Blue LA, where Ned Colletti's ineptness is brought up more often than Dodgers' fans probably like to see. Such is life.

I think I may make that last part my offical slogan.

And one not from me:

Jayson Werth (Philly): What do you think of my outlook going forward?

Marc Normandin: Lots of Jayson Werth questions today. I was never a big fan of Werth myself; I thought his bat was much more useful as a catcher than it was ever going to be as a corner outfielder. PECOTA agreed with me last year (.257/.341/.466) and I think his 2004 numbers were somewhat inflated by a fluke line drive rate. He was at 25% for the year, which no qualifying players even reached in 2004. If he?s healthy, I don?t expect much more than adequate catcher-esque batting numbers, except from an outfielder, which is a problem.

That's a bit of a shame, but I think those numbers are fine if Werth is in center.