|Russell Martin||.279/.359/.432||C||Chris Ianetta||.269/.358/.465|
|Nomar Garciaparra||.288/.354/.469||1B||Todd Helton||.315/.432/.517|
|Jeff Kent||.272/.352/.473||2B||Kaz Matsui||.277/.330/.385|
|Wilson Betemit||.262/.328/.451||3B||Garrett Atkins||.317/.389/.521|
|Rafael Furcal||.286/.358/.431||SS||Troy Tulowitzki||.282/.351/.429|
|Luis Gonzalez||.248/.342/.412||LF||Matt Holliday||.324/.383/.521|
|Juan Pierre||.299/.342/.385||CF||Willy Taveraz||.304/.353/.383|
|Andre Ethier||.296/.366/.463||RF||Brad Hawpe||.283/.368/.493|
|Derek Lowe||3.84||SP||Aaron Cook||4.37|
|Jason Schmidt||3.94||SP||Byung-Hyun Kim||4.44|
|Brad Penny||3.95||SP||Jeff Francis||4.48|
|Chad Billingsley||4.38||SP||Taylor Buchholz||4.85|
|Randy Wolf*||4.68||SP||Jason Hirsh||4.85|
*CHONE projection, which tend to be fairly close to ZIPS
If these projections hold, then the Jason Jennings trade was a brilliant move by the Rockies. The slight step down from Jennings to Hirsh is more than countered by the step up from Josh Fogg to Taylor Buchholz and Cory Sullivan to Willy Taveraz. This is just in 2007. They control Hirsh and Buchholz for the next six years. Hopefully Taveraz gets firmly entrenched in the leadoff spot where he'll be an out machine for years to come.
Last season, the Rockies started the year with five automatic outs in their lineup: Danny Ardoin, Luis Gonzalez, Clint Barmes, Cory Sullivan, and the pitcher. This year, all of those players are gone, and while two of them were replaced with other automatic outs, Ianetta and Tulowitzki should substantially improve this lineup. Combine this with easily the best heart of the order in the division, and you have the stereotypical dangerous Rockies offense. What's interesting is that the isolated power for the average Rockies starter is only eight points higher than the isolated power of the average Dodger starter. Amazing what a couple of holes in the offense can do.
Meanwhile, the improved Rockies pitching staff doesn't really lose much from last year, with Byung-Hyun Kim looking like the bargain of the off season if his projections hold. While the projections are still substantially worse than any other rotation in the division, the terrible offense that every other team in the NL West brings to the table could make up the difference. The Rockies are not a bad team at all, and are a couple lucky breaks from contending for the division.
And for completions sake: the Giants.
|Russell Martin||.279/.359/.432||C||Bengie Molina||.281/.317/.411|
|Nomar Garciaparra||.288/.354/.469||1B||Rich Aurilia||.280/.336/.445|
|Jeff Kent||.272/.352/.473||2B||Ray Durham||.271/.348/.452|
|Wilson Betemit||.262/.328/.451||3B||Pedro Feliz||.251/.292/.410|
|Rafael Furcal||.286/.358/.431||SS||Omar Vizquel||.277/.340/.349|
|Luis Gonzalez||.248/.342/.412||LF||Barry Bonds||.269/.464/.539|
|Juan Pierre||.299/.342/.385||CF||Dave Roberts||.280/.350/.386|
|Andre Ethier||.296/.366/.463||RF||Randy Winn||.275/.337/.413|
|Derek Lowe||3.84||SP||Matt Cain||4.01|
|Jason Schmidt||3.94||SP||Barry Zito||4.01|
|Brad Penny||3.95||SP||Noah Lowry||4.15|
|Chad Billingsley||4.38||SP||Matt Morris||4.31|
|Randy Wolf*||4.68||SP||Jonathan Sanchez||4.57|
Maybe the Giants aren't as terrible as I thought. They compete with the Dodgers in batting average and on base percentage (though that's almost entirely due to Bonds), and the pitching staff matches up pretty well. Still, whenever Bonds doesn't play the Giants don't have anyone that can hit, they have no bullpen and no real answers if anyone but Roberts or Winn gets hurt. This still is the worst team in the division, but they don't look nearly as bad when I see them next to the Dodgers.