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Matt Kemp and his age 22 and younger peers.

By Phil Gurnee

There have been 125 seasons since 1947 where a player has posted an OPS+ greater then 120 while being younger then 23 and having more then 200 at bats. Many of those players went on to have HOF or near HOF careers. A decent % did not. Of the ones that did not I was curious to see if there was a relationship between early plate discipline or not. Matt Kemp shows up on this list and his (OBP-AVG) is the 3rd worse on the list. My feeling was that I would find that the players with the best discipline would go on to greater glory and that the players with the least amount of discipline would struggle.

While I could find examples of players with lousy plate discipline struggling after success at an early age, (Ellis Valentin, Rich Coggins, Alex Johnson, Dave Roberts) I also found examples of players who struggled that had good or even excellent plate discipline (Curt Blefary, Ben Grieve, Bernie Carbo).

I counted about 13 players who I would consider flame outs. Players who had excellent success at an early age but for whatever reason were unable to put together a solid career.

I counted about 18 players who I considered to have "good" careers. These players had a total (WARP3 greater then 40 and less then 80) and whose EQA was below 300.

I counted about 21 players who I considered to have "great" careers but fell short of the HOF. Some of them might even belong in the HOF. These players either played a position such as catcher(Freehan, Porter, Torre, Simmons) and had excellent EQA's and WARP3's or were position players who had EQA's above .295 and WARP3 totals above 80.

I counted 18 HOF players.

I counted 6 active players who I expect to make the HOF very easily.

Tony Conigliaro was well on his way to a HOF career when a fastball to the head basically ended his career. He is the only player to be on this list 4 times. From age 19 - 22.

Greg Gross gets special mention as he posted an OPS+ > 120 while not hitting a home run. He ended up being a valuable platoon player and I just had no idea how to rate him.

This list is interesting because it has two of the players most often mentioned by Dodger fans at the moment. Matt Kemp and Miguel Cabrera.

Several players who became flame outs ended up being traded but NO ONE was ever traded after posting a year like Matt Kemp posted at the age of 19-22. Also no one has been traded to my knowledge at the age of Miguel Cabrera after what he has accomplished.

If they end up being the centerpiece of a mutual trade, it might well be the most amazing thing to happen this winter.

Name OBP-Avg Age Career Career-EQA Career-WARP3 BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ PA Year AB BB IBB SO
Dave Roberts 0.240 22 FO 0.243 9.2 0.286 0.310 0.472 0.782 123 503 1973 479 17 3 83
Orlando Cepeda 0.300 20 HOF 0.302 89 0.312 0.342 0.512 0.854 125 644 1958 603 29 7 84
Matt Kemp 0.310 22 ??? 0.287 4 0.342 0.373 0.521 0.894 125 311 2007 292 16 0 66
Bob Horner 0.320 21 Great/Injuries 0.290 42.5 0.314 0.346 0.552 0.898 135 515 1979 487 22 6 74
Harold Baines 0.320 22 Great 0.291 96 0.286 0.318 0.482 0.800 130 296 1981 280 12 4 41
Ted Simmons 0.330 22 Great 0.283 95.3 0.303 0.336 0.465 0.801 127 629 1972 594 29 8 57
Vada Pinson 0.360 22 Good 0.278 78.2 0.343 0.379 0.504 0.883 130 659 1961 607 39 1 63
Jeff Francoeur 0.360 21 ??? 0.268 11.9 0.300 0.336 0.549 0.885 126 274 2005 257 11 3 58
Hank Aaron 0.370 22 HOF 0.325 211.1 0.328 0.365 0.558 0.923 151 660 1956 609 37 6 54
Orlando Cepeda 0.380 21 HOF 0.302 89 0.317 0.355 0.522 0.877 133 647 1959 605 33 10 100
Ellis Valentine 0.380 22 FO 0.275 22.4 0.293 0.331 0.504 0.835 124 541 1977 508 30 3 58
Bob Horner 0.390 22 Great/Injuries 0.290 42.5 0.268 0.307 0.529 0.836 127 495 1980 463 27 3 50
Jim Rice 0.410 22 Great 0.294 83.2 0.309 0.350 0.491 0.841 127 613 1975 564 36 7 122
Alex Johnson 0.430 22 FO 0.269 30.1 0.294 0.337 0.443 0.780 120 280 1965 262 15 3 60
Juan Gonzalez 0.440 22 Great 0.302 78.2 0.260 0.304 0.529 0.833 133 632 1992 584 35 1 143
Rich Coggins 0.440 22 FO 0.260 9.3 0.319 0.363 0.468 0.831 134 426 1973 389 28 2 24
George Brett 0.450 22 HOF 0.305 134 0.308 0.353 0.456 0.809 125 697 1975 634 46 6 49
Orlando Cepeda 0.460 22 HOF 0.302 89 0.297 0.343 0.497 0.840 132 615 1960 569 34 9 91
Bob Horner 0.470 20 Great/Injuries 0.290 42.5 0.266 0.313 0.539 0.852 124 359 1978 323 24 2 42
Vladimir Guerrero 0.470 22 Active-Great 0.316 82 0.324 0.371 0.589 0.960 150 677 1998 623 42 13 95
Al Kaline 0.480 22 HOF 0.299 127.4 0.295 0.343 0.478 0.821 120 636 1957 577 43 7 38
Alex Rodriguez 0.500 21 Active-Great 0.323 138.1 0.300 0.350 0.496 0.846 120 638 1997 587 41 1 99
Alex Rodriguez 0.500 22 Active-Great 0.323 138.1 0.310 0.360 0.560 0.920 136 748 1998 686 45 0 121
Bill Freehan 0.500 22 Great 0.276 74 0.300 0.350 0.462 0.812 122 572 1964 520 36 3 68
Paul Molitor 0.500 22 HOF 0.299 133.5 0.322 0.372 0.469 0.841 126 645 1979 584 48 5 48
Eddie Murray 0.500 21 HOF 0.300 139.7 0.283 0.333 0.470 0.803 123 666 1977 611 48 6 104
Greg Luzinski 0.510 21 Good 0.296 61.8 0.281 0.332 0.453 0.785 120 611 1972 563 42 4 114
Travis Fryman 0.510 21 Good 0.275 74 0.297 0.348 0.470 0.818 127 251 1990 232 17 0 51
Hank Aaron 0.520 21 HOF 0.325 211.1 0.314 0.366 0.540 0.906 143 665 1955 602 49 5 61
Jack Clark 0.520 22 Great 0.309 91 0.306 0.358 0.537 0.895 152 657 1978 592 50 8 72
Johnny Bench 0.520 22 HOF 0.291 120.6 0.293 0.345 0.587 0.932 141 671 1970 605 54 9 102
Cal Ripken 0.530 22 HOF 0.283 169 0.318 0.371 0.517 0.888 144 726 1983 663 58 0 97
Ken Griffey 0.530 22 Active-Great 0.311 134.1 0.308 0.361 0.535 0.896 149 617 1992 565 44 15 67
Frank Robinson 0.540 21 HOF 0.324 160.9 0.322 0.376 0.529 0.905 135 677 1957 611 44 5 92
Tony Conigliaro 0.540 22 Injuries 0.276 24.2 0.287 0.341 0.519 0.860 142 389 1967 349 27 2 58
Brian McCann 0.550 22 ??? 0.288 15 0.333 0.388 0.572 0.960 143 492 2006 442 41 8 54
Clint Hurdle 0.550 22 FO 0.271 11.6 0.294 0.349 0.458 0.807 120 438 1980 395 34 5 61
Vada Pinson 0.550 20 Good 0.278 78.2 0.316 0.371 0.509 0.880 128 706 1959 648 55 3 98
Alex Rodriguez 0.560 20 Active-Great 0.323 138.1 0.358 0.414 0.631 1.045 160 677 1996 601 59 1 104
Cesar Cedeno 0.560 22 Great/Injuries 0.293 86.7 0.320 0.376 0.537 0.913 152 576 1973 525 41 7 79
Jim Ray Hart 0.560 22 Great/Injuries 0.298 42 0.286 0.342 0.498 0.840 132 625 1964 566 47 4 94
Will Clark 0.560 22 Great 0.312 105 0.287 0.343 0.444 0.787 121 458 1986 408 34 10 76
Joe Torre 0.570 22 Great 0.298 104 0.293 0.350 0.431 0.781 125 556 1963 501 42 4 79
Juan Gonzalez 0.570 21 Great 0.302 78.2 0.264 0.321 0.479 0.800 121 595 1991 545 42 7 118
Grady Sizemore 0.590 22 ??? 0.301 28.3 0.289 0.348 0.484 0.832 123 706 2005 640 52 1 132
Johnny Bench 0.600 21 HOF 0.291 120.6 0.293 0.353 0.487 0.840 129 592 1969 532 49 7 86
Rafael Palmeiro 0.600 22 Great 0.305 138.3 0.276 0.336 0.543 0.879 126 244 1987 221 20 1 26
Greg Luzinski 0.610 22 Good 0.296 61.8 0.285 0.346 0.484 0.830 126 671 1973 610 51 9 135
Kent Hrbek 0.620 22 Great 0.299 79.6 0.301 0.363 0.485 0.848 128 591 1982 532 54 12 80
Miguel Cabrera 0.620 22 Active-Great 0.314 39 0.323 0.385 0.561 0.946 151 685 2005 613 64 12 125
Boog Powell 0.630 21 Great 0.298 76.3 0.265 0.328 0.470 0.798 125 548 1963 491 49 8 87
Dick Allen 0.640 22 Great 0.324 92.8 0.318 0.382 0.557 0.939 162 708 1964 632 67 13 138
Earl Williams 0.640 22 FO 0.268 21.2 0.260 0.324 0.491 0.815 123 550 1971 497 42 5 80
Tony Conigliaro 0.640 19 Injuries 0.276 24.2 0.290 0.354 0.530 0.884 138 444 1964 404 35 1 78
Cesar Cedeno 0.650 21 Great/Injuries 0.293 86.7 0.320 0.385 0.537 0.922 162 625 1972 559 56 5 62
Tony Conigliaro 0.650 21 Injuries 0.276 24.2 0.265 0.330 0.487 0.817 122 628 1966 558 52 8 112
Ken Griffey 0.660 20 Active-Great 0.311 134.1 0.300 0.366 0.481 0.847 135 666 1990 597 63 12 81
Reggie Jackson 0.660 22 HOF 0.305 123.8 0.250 0.316 0.452 0.768 138 614 1968 553 50 5 171
Carl Yastrzemski 0.670 22 HOF 0.295 133.5 0.296 0.363 0.469 0.832 120 719 1962 646 66 7 82
Gary Matthews 0.670 22 Good 0.287 64 0.300 0.367 0.444 0.811 120 605 1973 540 58 7 83
Willie Horton 0.670 22 Good 0.281 53.2 0.273 0.340 0.490 0.830 132 572 1965 512 48 9 101
Al Kaline 0.690 21 HOF 0.299 127.4 0.314 0.383 0.530 0.913 139 693 1956 617 70 4 55
Duke Snider 0.690 22 HOF 0.309 94 0.292 0.361 0.493 0.854 123 615 1949 552 56 0 92
Mel Hall 0.690 22 FO 0.273 35 0.283 0.352 0.488 0.840 128 458 1983 410 42 6 101
Tony Conigliaro 0.690 20 Injuries 0.276 24.2 0.269 0.338 0.512 0.850 133 586 1965 521 51 6 116
Andy Carey 0.710 22 FO 0.257 26.2 0.302 0.373 0.423 0.796 121 471 1954 411 43 0 38
Eddie Murray 0.710 22 HOF 0.300 139.7 0.285 0.356 0.480 0.836 140 690 1978 610 70 7 97
Rick Monday 0.710 21 Good 0.288 56.4 0.251 0.322 0.419 0.741 121 459 1967 406 42 2 107
Jerry Turner 0.720 22 FO 0.266 11 0.267 0.339 0.413 0.752 121 320 1976 281 32 3 38
Ken Griffey 0.720 21 Active-Great 0.311 134.1 0.327 0.399 0.527 0.926 155 633 1991 548 71 21 82
Larry Hisle 0.720 22 Good 0.290 48.4 0.266 0.338 0.459 0.797 124 537 1969 482 48 8 152
Miguel Cabrera 0.720 21 Active-Great 0.314 39 0.294 0.366 0.512 0.878 130 685 2004 603 68 5 148
Richie Hebner 0.720 22 Good 0.285 58.5 0.290 0.362 0.464 0.826 123 475 1970 420 42 5 48
Albert Pujols 0.740 21 Active-Great 0.340 77.4 0.329 0.403 0.610 1.013 157 676 2001 590 69 6 93
Jeff Burroughs 0.760 22 Good 0.289 43.7 0.279 0.355 0.487 0.842 141 605 1973 526 67 3 88
Jason Thompson 0.770 22 Good 0.291 48.8 0.270 0.347 0.487 0.834 121 668 1977 585 73 2 91
Richie Ashburn 0.770 21 Great 0.291 108.9 0.333 0.410 0.400 0.810 122 530 1948 463 60 0 22
Ron Santo 0.780 21 Great 0.295 117.7 0.284 0.362 0.479 0.841 121 655 1961 578 73 7 77
Darryl Strawberry 0.790 21 Great 0.307 74.2 0.257 0.336 0.512 0.848 134 473 1983 420 47 9 128
Greg Gross 0.790 21 Platoon 0.273 32 0.314 0.393 0.377 0.770 121 676 1974 589 76 4 39
Richie Hebner 0.790 21 Good 0.285 58.5 0.301 0.380 0.420 0.800 127 532 1969 459 53 10 53
Albert Pujols 0.800 22 Active-Great 0.340 77.4 0.314 0.394 0.561 0.955 151 675 2002 590 72 13 69
Al Kaline 0.810 20 HOF 0.299 127.4 0.340 0.421 0.546 0.967 162 681 1955 588 82 12 57
Willie Mays 0.820 20 HOF 0.328 214 0.274 0.356 0.472 0.828 120 524 1951 464 57 0 60
Bobby Bonds 0.820 22 Great 0.298 95.2 0.254 0.336 0.407 0.743 122 349 1968 307 38 0 84
David Wright 0.820 22 ??? 0.316 33 0.306 0.388 0.523 0.911 139 657 2005 575 72 2 113
Mickey Mantle 0.830 20 HOF 0.340 149.1 0.311 0.394 0.530 0.924 162 626 1952 549 75 0 111
Terry Puhl 0.840 20 Good 0.283 55 0.301 0.385 0.402 0.787 121 265 1977 229 30 0 31
B.J. Upton 0.860 22 ??? 0.290 7.5 0.300 0.386 0.508 0.894 136 548 2007 474 65 4 154
Keith Hernandez 0.870 22 Great/Coke 0.300 112.5 0.289 0.376 0.428 0.804 127 428 1976 374 49 5 53
Tim Raines 0.870 21 Great 0.307 123.9 0.304 0.391 0.438 0.829 135 363 1981 313 45 5 31
Manny Ramirez 0.880 22 Active-Great 0.329 106 0.269 0.357 0.521 0.878 124 336 1994 290 42 4 72
Vic Wertz 0.880 22 Good 0.285 67 0.288 0.376 0.432 0.808 122 382 1947 333 47 0 66
Rickey Henderson 0.890 22 HOF 0.315 187.7 0.319 0.408 0.437 0.845 150 493 1981 423 64 4 68
Frank Robinson 0.890 20 HOF 0.324 160.9 0.290 0.379 0.558 0.937 143 668 1956 572 64 7 95
Austin Kearns 0.920 22 ??? 0.282 31.5 0.315 0.407 0.500 0.907 134 435 2002 372 54 3 81
Jim Fregosi 0.920 22 Good 0.278 77 0.277 0.369 0.463 0.832 141 591 1964 505 72 2 87
Darryl Strawberry 0.920 22 Great 0.307 74.2 0.251 0.343 0.467 0.810 127 602 1984 522 75 15 131
Roy Sievers 0.920 22 Good 0.288 60.1 0.306 0.398 0.471 0.869 126 545 1949 471 70 0 75
Scott Rolen 0.940 22 Active-Great 0.297 95 0.283 0.377 0.469 0.846 121 657 1997 561 76 4 138
Rocky Colavito 0.960 22 Great 0.295 75.3 0.276 0.372 0.531 0.903 135 380 1956 322 49 0 46
Rick Monday 0.970 22 Good 0.288 56.4 0.274 0.371 0.402 0.773 141 563 1968 482 72 7 143
Ben Grieve 0.980 22 FO 0.286 27.3 0.288 0.386 0.458 0.844 123 678 1998 583 85 3 123
Johnny Briggs 0.980 22 Good 0.289 44.4 0.282 0.380 0.490 0.870 141 297 1966 255 41 3 55

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