My favorite scout and prospect hound Deric McKamey from Baseball HQ just published his top 15 Dodger propect list. We met a few years ago at the Baseball HQ Roto Conference that is held during the AFL season. I've always liked his combination of scouting and sabremetric analysis of prospects. He was kind enough to answer quite a few questions about players on and off the list. He certainly has a positive take on our system and graded it an A- overall.
I'll be adding the information to my prospect database but here are some highlights. 1st off, he uses a grading system like so.
PLAYER POTENTIAL RATING
Scale of (1-10) representing a player's upside potential
10 - Hall of Fame-type player
9 - Elite player
8 - Solid regular
7 - Average regular
6 - Platoon player
5 - Major League reserve player
4 - Top minor league player
3 - Average minor league player
2 - Minor league reserve player
1 - Minor league roster filler
PROBABILITY RATING
Scale of (A-E) representing the player's realistic chances of achieving their potential
A - 90% probability of reaching potential
B - 70% probability of reaching potential
C - 50% probability of reaching potential
D - 30% probability of reaching potential
E - 10% probability of reaching potential
- Kershaw got a 10D, this is significant because he only gave out one other 10 this year and that was for Jay Bruce. Feels that Kershaw has the best stuff he's seen in the minors since Ankiel. If some of you don't remember Ankiel as a pitcher, take a look at his 20 year season.
- 3 Players got a 9C rating (LaRoche, Elbert, Meloan). LaRoche's MLE show a 850OPS. Feels LaRoche's only weakness is his foot speed. As we saw at Dodger stadium he has really improved with the glove.
- 3 Players got a 9E rating(Withrow, Lambo, Baez). All are 19 and just came into the system this year.
- Hu got a 8B rating, McDonald got a 8C rating, Blake DeWett, Josh Bell, and Adkins all got 8D ratings.
- D Young, Orenduff, and DeJesus all got a 7C rating.
- Overall he rates our system an A-. The top is elite heavy but he likes the new influx of talent.
- Biggest surprise is how far Josh Bell and Ivan Dejesus have fallen but he said it was due more to better talent passing them, then them falling.
- Xavier Paul does not make the list and in a followup question he feels that Paul cannot play a credible CF and will not hit enough to be any more then a 4th outfielder
- Corey Wade does not make the top 15 and while his stats look good, he feels he stuff is only good enough for back of the bullpen work
- Adkins makes the top 15, feels he will move fast. Worries about arm issues he had in college.
- Elbert on the other hand is still only behind Kershaw and feels he won't miss a beat from his minor shoulder surgery
- The MLE's for D Young show a 750-775 OPS hitter. He grades out to an average regular.
- While seeing Greg Miller get lit up in the AFL he said his breaking balls are now below average. The only thing he has is his fastball and while it still generates some swing and misses it isn't enough anymore.
- He feels Bryan Morris is top 15 caliber but until he pitches competively upon his return from TJ surgery he felt he couldn't put on the list.
- Has not given up on Dewitt. Feels he can still be a starting major league 3rd baseman. It was curious that DeWitt and Paul were both 22 in Jacksonville and that he discounts Paul's season while still seeing some value in Dewitt. I asked him about both and he said the just doesn't feel Paul can handle CF and that good pitching will limit his ceiling to a 4th outfielder.
- Players who dropped off the list from 2007 to 2008 because of promotions:(Abreu, Loney)
- Players who dropped off the list from 2007 to 2008 due to performance issues(Preston Mattingly, Kyle Orr, Greg Miller). Bryan Morris dropped off because of the TJ surgery.
- He still thinks Kyle Orr has tremendous power potential but was passed by the influx of new talent.
- Asked him about Jamie Ortiz and this was the reply I like his bat speed and raw power, but he is very pull-conscious and isn't very patient at the plate. I didn't feel his bat was advanced as Lambo or Baez, and unlike the other two, he won't have much defensive value outside of playing 1B.