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More Hypothetical Situations

Baseball Prospectus recently released their depth charts for the 2007 season. Within these depth charts, they attempt to predict a teams record by estimating how much play time each player will get, then calculating runs scored and runs against using the player's PECOTA projection. The Dodgers do not fair well in this analysis, finishing 80-82. This is partially because PECOTA is not a big fan of the Dodger pitching staff, it expects a pretty big decline from Derek Lowe and not much from Wolf and Billingsley, and because the Dodgers are projected to be tied with Houston for the 10th best offense in the NL.

There are a couple problems with the charts. First is that Marlon Anderson shouldn't inherit Jeff Kent's job if he gets hurt. I'd expect Wilson Betemit to slide over to second and Andy LaRoche will play third. The same logic applies to a lesser extent to Ramon Martinez, who almost certainly isn't going to get 16 starts at shortstop. Another minor problem is that it's assuming Eric Stults is the Dodgers seventh starter, not Brett Tomko or Mark Hendrickson, but I don't think four starts will make all that much of a difference. Finally, prospects Greg Miller and Jonathan Meloan aren't anywhere on the chart, and they're almost guaranteed to make an appearance in the bullpen at some point this season. With all this taken into account, the Dodgers should probably pick up 2-3 wins over this projection, which is nice but still doesn't make the Dodgers a very good team.

Here's the 2007 NL West standings, according to the depth charts:

Diamondbacks 88-74
Padres: 86-76
Dodgers: 80-82
Rockies: 80-82
Giants: 78-84