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B-B-B-Bigbie And The Jets

Dodgers winning percentage in one run games: .778 (1st in baseball)
Spread between actual wins and pythageorean winning percentage: 2.6 (4th in baseball)
Spread between actual wins and second order wins (Pythagorean record using equivalent runs, or how many runs a team should score based on it's equivalent average): 3.1 (5th in baseball)
Spread between actual wins and third order runs (Pythagorean record using equivalent runs adjusted for strength of competition): 3.7 (3rd in baseball)

After watching the Dodgers pull off multiple one runs wins during this series, I started to wonder about how the old Pythagorean record was looking. Apparently, it's not looking too good. The Dodgers at this point actually have a worse Pythagorean record than the Giants. Both teams have allowed 227 runs, but the Giants have plated one more runner over the course of the season. Some laughable performances by Armando Benitez help to explain some of the difference between the two teams, but the Giants don't actually deserve to be 6.5 games back in the West.

On the bright side, one of the few teams with a more unsustainable record than the Dodgers is the Diamondbacks, who lead the league in difference between actual record and third order record by a huge margin. The other factor in the division, the Padres are pretty much right on target according to their third order record. Someone on the Dodgers is going to need to step up soon (please be Matt Kemp), or the Dodgers will start falling in the standings.


AAA outfielder Larry Bigbie exercised his opt-out clause last week, and you shouldn't give him a second thought. While Bigbie's .349/.431/.532 line in AAA this year looks impressive, it's totally unsustainable. Bigbie had a .404 BABIP for the 51s while contributing only a 17.6 line drive percentage, so he was due for a collapse. What's more interesting is that Bigbie hit ground balls and astonishing 62.7 percent of the time. Combine this with his 12 doubles, and it seems that most of Bigbie's .532 slugging percentage came from shooting balls down the line. This seems like both something he can't be doing intentionally, and something that would be harder to do to a major league defense.

With these numbers in mind, Bigbie looks a lot more like the guy who hit .239/.301/.346 than someone who could contribute more than Brady Clark. Ned Colletti did well in letting Bigbie walk away.