clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Pitching with Pecota

Jim Baker over at Baseball Prospectus went over the Pecota predictions for those with zero major league experience.
Here is an excerpt related to our rotation:

Starting Pitcher: Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers, 23.3 Projected VORP. As it was last year, the starting pitcher with the best PECOTA is a Japanese import, albeit a less-heralded one than Daisuke Matsuzaka was. Adding Kuroda gives the Dodgers something that no other team in the National League has: four starting pitchers with a PECOTA-projected VORP over 20.0. True, they're all scores in the low 20s, but it beats the alternative. Chad Billingsley is highest at 23.7, followed by Kuroda; Derek Lowe is next at 21.0, followed closely by Brad Penny at 20.9. A healthier Jason Schmidt would certainly project that high as well. Only one other team has four equally promising starters in their stable, that being Boston with Josh Beckett (44.6), Daisuke Matsuzaka (34.9), Clay Buchholz (22.8), and Curt Schilling (20.2), although Buchholz is behind John Lester and Tim Wakefield on the depth chart.

I know that Andrew is not very bullish on Kuroda but Pecota sure is. Given the bullseye they hit with DiceK's projection last season we have reason to be optimistic about the projection.