With permission from Nate Silver the author of Pecota, below are the Baseball Prospectus Pecota projections. This gives us something to compare Eric's community projections against. Pecota doesn't understand when a player plays hurt all season like Furcal did, so to the algrorithm it looks like Furcal is in decline. I would fully expect a healthy Rafy to post a superior slug % then the Pecota projection. I've sorted by descending WARP.
Readers of this site might be familiar with the unique statistics of Baseball Prospectus but if not here are the glossary links.
EQA
VORP
WXRL
A VORP over 30 is very good but remember it does not take into account defense.
| Pecota Hitting Projections |
| PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
EQA |
VORP |
WARP |
| Martin, Russell |
C |
25 |
0.284 |
0.37 |
0.439 |
0.809 |
0.28 |
31.2 |
6 |
| Furcal, Rafael |
SS |
30 |
0.28 |
0.35 |
0.389 |
0.739 |
0.262 |
24.6 |
5.8 |
| Jones, Andruw |
CF |
31 |
0.256 |
0.344 |
0.486 |
0.83 |
0.278 |
30.5 |
5.1 |
| Kent, Jeff |
2B |
40 |
0.287 |
0.368 |
0.493 |
0.861 |
0.289 |
33.3 |
4.7 |
| Kemp, Matthew |
CF |
23 |
0.296 |
0.349 |
0.505 |
0.854 |
0.287 |
30.2 |
4.5 |
| Laroche, Andy |
3B |
24 |
0.28 |
0.364 |
0.485 |
0.849 |
0.286 |
22.9 |
3.8 |
| Ethier, Andre |
LF |
26 |
0.286 |
0.354 |
0.453 |
0.807 |
0.274 |
18.2 |
3.6 |
| Loney, James |
1B |
24 |
0.29 |
0.353 |
0.461 |
0.814 |
0.275 |
19.5 |
3.4 |
| Pierre, Juan |
CF |
30 |
0.29 |
0.332 |
0.357 |
0.689 |
0.247 |
6.6 |
2.2 |
| Garciaparra, Nomar |
1B |
34 |
0.283 |
0.337 |
0.411 |
0.748 |
0.256 |
8.9 |
1.6 |
| Abreu, Etanislao |
2B |
23 |
0.279 |
0.326 |
0.408 |
0.734 |
0.251 |
5.6 |
1.5 |
| Hu, Chin-Lung |
SS |
24 |
0.274 |
0.319 |
0.403 |
0.722 |
0.247 |
4.1 |
1.1 |
| Young, Delwyn |
LF |
26 |
0.268 |
0.318 |
0.451 |
0.77 |
0.258 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
|
| Pecota Pitching Projections |
| PLAYER |
AGE |
ERA |
WHIP |
VORP |
WXRL |
WARP |
| Saito, Takashi |
38 |
2.99 |
1.18 |
19.5 |
3.01 |
5.8 |
| Billingsley, Chad |
23 |
3.96 |
1.38 |
26.5 |
3.72 |
4.1 |
| Kuroda, Hiroki |
33 |
4.12 |
1.32 |
24.8 |
3.97 |
3.9 |
| Penny, Brad |
30 |
4.29 |
1.42 |
22.9 |
3.73 |
3.8 |
| Lowe, Derek |
35 |
4.12 |
1.37 |
22.2 |
3.75 |
3.6 |
| Broxton, Jonathan |
24 |
2.95 |
1.2 |
23.6 |
2.12 |
3.3 |
| Schmidt, Jason |
35 |
4.57 |
1.43 |
11.2 |
1.56 |
2.1 |
| Kuo, Hong-Chih |
26 |
4.28 |
1.4 |
10.3 |
1.11 |
1.8 |
| Hull, Eric |
28 |
4.09 |
1.45 |
8.8 |
0.97 |
1.6 |
| Meloan, Jonathan |
23 |
4.25 |
1.45 |
8 |
0.88 |
1.6 |
| Loaiza, Esteban |
36 |
4.72 |
1.44 |
6.8 |
1.05 |
1.4 |
| Proctor, Scott |
31 |
4.48 |
1.42 |
7.4 |
0.62 |
1.3 |
| Beimel, Joe |
31 |
4.3 |
1.48 |
6.3 |
0.57 |
1.1 |
| Seanez, Rudy |
39 |
4.31 |
1.38 |
5.9 |
0.53 |
1.1 |
| Brazoban, Yhency |
28 |
4.23 |
1.37 |
5.6 |
0.53 |
1 |
| Myers, Mike |
39 |
3.82 |
1.39 |
5.8 |
0.53 |
0.9 |
| Martin, Tom |
38 |
4.75 |
1.53 |
1.6 |
0.12 |
0.4 |
| McDonald, James |
23 |
5.48 |
1.54 |
0.1 |
0.15 |
0.2 |
|
