Loney's Improvement a Key for 2010

If this offseason has taught us anything so far, it's that the Dodger roster as it stands now, four days before Christmas, won't be much different than the one that opens the regular season on April 5 in Pittsburgh.  The core of the team will carry this team as far as it's going to go.  Most of that nucleus is young and on the upswing, which is good for a team that needs their improvement to fuel another postseason run.

These young players also fit a key requirement to be a Dodger these days, in that they are cheap, at least relatively so. Using Wins Above Replacement (on Fangraphs), the Dodgers' two best players last season were Matt Kemp (5.0 WAR) and Clayton Kershaw (4.2 WAR, tied with Casey Blake).  Those two made a combined $871,000 in 2009, meaning they were two of the most valuable players in baseball.  Many of these young players are due for raises in 2010, as the Dodgers lead baseball with nine arbitration-eligible players.

One of the most intriguing stories of 2010 will be the performance of first baseman James Loney.  He is eligible for arbitration for the first time, and he will probably make somewhere between $3 million to $3.5 million next season.  Loney has just over three years of service time, and here are some comparable first basemen heading into their fourth year in recent seasons:

			Stats Through 3rd Year
First Baseman	Year	Service Time	OPS+	Runs	RBI	4th Year Salary
Adam LaRoche	2007	3 years	114	187	213	$3.2 million
Kevin Youkilis	2008	3 yrs, 93 days	109	234	199	$3 million
Mike Jacobs	2009	3 yrs, 47 days	110	197	247	$3.25 million
James Loney	2010	3 yrs, 12 days	112	200	265	???
Service time courtesy of the great Cot's Baseball Contracts

Loney is not quite at the crossroads of his Dodger career, but he is getting closer.  He plays first base, the most offensive-minded position in baseball, while last season Loney had a slugging percentage of .399.  It's one thing to accept relatively low production from your first baseman when he is making $465,000, as Loney did in 2009, because the team can theoretically use the savings to spend money on other positions.  Now that Loney will likely make $3 million or more, it's time to look at first base with a more critical eye.  

I'm not saying it's time to cut bait on Loney.  He will turn 26 in April, about to enter a time which is often considered the prime of a player's career.  He also has the extreme home/road splits (.709 career OPS at Dodger Stadium, .900 OPS on the road), and if anyone can figure out how to harness Road Loney at home the Dodgers will benefit greatly.  We can also look to the recent past to find another Dodger first baseman who struggled as he entered his arbitration seasons.

Eric Karros -- who is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this season, by the way -- was once in the very same shoes worn by Loney today.  Karros won rookie of the year in 1992, hitting 20 home runs with 88 runs batted in, then struggled over the next two seasons.  Loney took over Dodger first base duties in June 2007, and hit .331 with 15 dingers, only to descend into mediocrity over his next two seasons.

	Eric Karros		James Loney
	Year	OPS+ (NL 1B rank)	Year	OPS+ (NL 1B rank)
1st year	1992	106 (9th of 12)	2007	134 (4th of 16)
2nd year	1993	88 (13th of 15)	2008	103 (13th of 16)
3rd year	1994	95 (10th of 14)	2009	104 (13th of 16)

Heading into their first arbitration-eligible seasons, here's how Karros and Loney compare:

Pre Arbitration Years
Player	Years	Ages	PA	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
Eric Karros	1991-1994	23-26	1710	188	79	57	215	.254/.298/.417	95
James Loney	2006-2009	22-25	1788	200	84	45	265	.295/.354/.451	112

Loney doesn't look so bad now, does he?  That .298 on-base percentage for Karros really stands out.  I don't remember caring too much about OBP back then, but wow.  However, here is what Karros did during his three seasons of arbitration:

Eric Karros Arbitration Years
Year	Age	PA	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
1995	27	620	83	29	32	105	.298/.369/.535	145
1996	28	670	84	29	34	111	.260/.316/.479	113
1997	29	700	86	28	31	104	.266/.329/.459	110
Totals		1990	253	86	97	320	.274/.337/.489	122

Throw in the fact that Loney is a year younger than Karros was, and it's not hard to see a scenario in which Loney comes into his own over the next three seasons.  He'll pretty much have to, because the Dodgers need it.