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Time for more projections

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Last week I reviewed the Baseball Forecaster hitting projections with the promise to look at the pitching projections so here they are. Some good stuff mixed in with some surprises. Now remember when HQ does their projections they concentrate on the base skills of the pitcher and create a formula called BPV

For pitchers, our BPIs are control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), ground/line/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA). Random chance is measured with hit rate (H%), strand rate (S%) and home run to fly ball ratio (hr/f).

So while Kershaw may have the best stuff on the team until he exhibits better control his BPI's are not going to extrapolate out to a break out season.  Surprising to some but Hiroki Kuroda has the best BPI's in the projected rotation. A BPV of 100 or above is an elite pitcher with elite underlying skills. As an example a Chris Carpenter has a BPV of 105, while Josh Johnson has a 90. Matt Cain matches Billingsley with a 72. You may decry these numbers but until Billingsley and Kershaw drop the walk rate the raw skills they have will not match up with the peripheral numbers needed to become an elite pitcher.  As you can see the ERA'f for them are still low because they miss bats and don't give up home runs so they are that close to moving from good pitchers to great pitchers if they can harness their control.

 

Player     Age     TH     IP   H   ER   HR   BB   K   ERA   Ctl   Dom   Cmd   HR/9   BPV ↓
Broxton, Jonathan 25 R 65 46 21 5 23 88 2.91 3.2 12.2 3.8 0.7 155
Kuo, Hong-Chih 28 L 44 36 15 2 16 48 3.07 3.3 9.8 3 0.4 108
Kuroda, Hiroki 34 R 145 140 61 15 32 102 3.79 2 6.3 3.2 0.9 89
Lindblom, Josh 22 R 29 29 15 2 8 22 4.66 2.5 6.8 2.8 0.6 83
McDonald, James 25 R 102 93 45 10 41 97 3.97 3.6 8.6 2.4 0.9 75
Elbert, Scott 24 L 87 77 39 9 39 86 4.03 4 8.9 2.2 0.9 74
Billingsley, Chad 25 R 203 185 82 18 83 189 3.64 3.7 8.4 2.3 0.8 72
Schlichting, Travis 25 R 29 32 14 2 9 21 4.34 2.8 6.5 2.3 0.6 68
Ayala, Luis 31 R 29 31 14 3 8 21 4.34 2.5 6.5 2.6 0.9 67
Sherrill, George 32 L 73 61 28 7 30 71 3.45 3.7 8.8 2.4 0.9 67
Kershaw, Clayton 21 L 203 166 77 16 97 209 3.41 4.3 9.3 2.2 0.7 66
Wade, Cory 26 R 29 27 16 2 11 20 4.97 3.4 6.2 1.8 0.6 62
Troncoso, Ramon 26 R 65 67 30 4 28 47 4.15 3.9 6.5 1.7 0.6 46
Towers, Josh 32 R 29 33 14 4 7 14 4.34 2.2 4.3 2 1.2 28
Stults, Eric 30 L 87 105 51 12 36 54 5.28 3.7 5.6 1.5 1.2 15
Haeger, Charlie 26 R 29 34 16 4 14 18 4.97 4.3 5.6 1.3 1.2 9

 

For an extended look at what Baseball HQ Thinks click on the jump.

Hiroki Kuroda - His injuries (an oblique strain, a liner off the noggin) weren't arm-related, and when he was out there, he saw a healthy skills bump. Another step up unlikely at age 35, but two solid years make a strong case for another.

 

Chad Billingsley - Unlucky 2H (s%, hr/f) made post-June dive seem worse than it was. Other rates remained strong. A viritual lock to return to a sub-4.00 ERA, and at 25, still has serious upside potential.

 

Clayton Kershaw - Despite sub-3.00 ERA, don't put him in class of Tommy Hanson yet. Electric Dom offset by wobbly Ctl. Touch of H% and S% support, combined with low hr/f, suggests his ERA is headed north. He'll be gem, but not yet.

 

Scott Elbert - 2-0, 5.03 ERA in 20 IP at LA. Dom shows the potential of a former 1st rounder, Ctl shows the refinement still needed. Cmd trend shows he's figuring it out. If he wins rotation spot, then... UP: 13 Wins, 3.50 ERA.

 

James McDonald - 5-5, 4.00 ERA in 63 IP at LA. Skills finally took a step in righ direction in 2H while working out of the pen. Future as a SP, and with Dom this good, he certainly belongs on your radar, if not yet on your roster.

 

Jonathan Broxton - Sparkling growth season all- around--Dom, GB, Opp BA-- and fully supported by sub-2.00 xERA. As long as he's able to shake the 2-time NLCS ghosts, he looks like money right now.

 

George Sherrill - PRO: LH don't have much of a chance vs him. Ctl rebounded. GB% improved. CON: Dom heading south. Still a FB pitcher. Verdict: '09 luck can't continue, ERA will rise toward xERA.

Okay that is all. The peripheral skills of  Stults or Haeger are bad. Very bad. I will say that having looked at the projections for the other possible pitchers we could acquire only Harang (BPV of 90) would be a significant upgrade over Elbert or McDonald.  As you can see they don't expect Kuroda to handle a full load so it is imperative that this team get another pitcher. Harang fits the bill as an innings eater and a skills guy. Garland is simply an innings eater. Padilla is also simply an innings eater who might have some latent skills coming back based on his 2nd half but it is quite a gamble based on what he's asking in salary.

It would seem the best move in 2010 would be to move Sherrill for Harang if we could find a why to take on the salary.

Harang - Skills aren't quite as good as they were in 2006-07, but main difference has been run support and a few more hr/f. Guy who earned $8 in '09 isn't that far of from guy who earned $24 in '06. UP: 15 wins, 3.75 ERA.

With Sherrill due to earn $4 Million in arbitration and the Dodgers not able to add salary. The goal would be to find a team with a $4 million dollar starter who needs someone who has closed in the recent past or who covets a solid left handed setup man. Only a contending team would be concerned with adding such a pitcher so it is very hard to find a match. Personally I'd flip Sherrill to the Yankee's for Chad Gaudin and a David Robertson. Robertson is better then Sherrill right now but the Yankee's may want the perceived thing in Sherrill. Gaudin is hot and cold but if you throw him out there every fifth day he will do the job as a back end of a rotation guy. Plus he was money against Colorado in Coors last year. Plus I've always liked him.