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Comparing Dodger Pitching Projections for 2009

We haven't had much of a debate about the subject but over at Dodger Thoughts they have been discussing our projected pitching staff over and over. A selected few think our staff is in big trouble but they are shouted down by the many. So taking their cue I've assembled the projections for what I think are the three most respected projected systems. These are all pay sites so I'm only going to post the ERA. Per Paul Scott below let me make this clear. THT is a free site that charges $10 for the projections to be downloaded. HQ and BP are full pay sites. For that reason I'm only going to show the ERA projections and not the underlying statistics they used to come up with projections.

[Update] I've added the IP to get a better idea of where the numbers are coming from.

You have The Hardball Times which brought you x-FIP with the most negative projections. Their x-FIP darling Troncoso does not fare well. Pecota from Baseball Prospectus seems to sit in the middle. The good news is that my favorite site for projections, Baseball HQ has a very optimistic forecast for us.

The crazy outliers are Cory Wade for THT compared to the other two. James McDonald is liked by HQ but hated by THT and Pecota.  I've been a HQ believer in the pitching projections all this decade and they have done me well in my roto battles. I myself was a bit worried about our rotation and while Wolf/Schmidt do not inspire much confidence I'm relieved to see that HQ thinks our big three are really a big three. 


FirstName LastName THT HQ Pecota
Jonathan Broxton 2.82/73 2.95/58 2.83/65
Hong-Chih Kuo 3.35/77 3.62/87 3.43/70
Chad Billingsley 3.75/174 3.28/203 3.55/180
Hiroki Kuroda 4.15/173 3.9/189 4.16/175
Clayton Kershaw 4.3/150 3.78/174 4/155
Yhency Brazoban 4.31/42 4.8/ /
Randy Wolf 4.79/160 4.6/174 4.5/130
Travis Schlichting 4.84/64 / 5.41/60
Scott Elbert 4.85/52 3.27/44 4.63/45
Jason Schmidt 4.98/78 4.34/58 4.88/65
Claudio Vargas 4.98/108 5.28/29 4.6/80
Ramon Troncoso 5/67 3.89/44 4.3/40
Cory Wade 5.38/76 3.41/58 3.92/50
Eric Stults 5.59/146 4.97/29 4.8/55
James McDonald 6.29/131 3.89/44 5.11/70
Charlie Haeger 4.96/157 5.32/44 5.85/40
Guillermo  Mota 4.29/62 4.5/58 4.52/50