FanPost

August 30th, Dodgers Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Reds and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last updated at 9:05AM pdt, with correct lineups)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Over/Under Final Score
LAN CIN C.Kershaw vs B.Arroyo LAN 61.83% 59.95% 8.10 / 8.44 TBD

Simulator Fun Facts...

Top Three Most Likely Scores
1 CIN 4-3
2 CIN 3-2
3 LAN 3-2

Top 10 Most Likely Dodgers Victory Scores

1 3-2
2 4-3
3 4-2
4 5-4
5 2-1
6 5-3
7 3-1
8 4-1
9 5-1
10 5-2

Most common shutout score: LAN 3-0

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
C.Kershaw 1.396 3.438
B.Arroyo 1.400 4.274

Player Most Likely To
Category Dodgers Player Reds Player
Hit A HR A.Ethier J.Votto
Hit A 3B J.Pierre B.Phillips
Hit a 2B A.Ethier D.Stubbs
Score Runs A.Ethier D.Stubbs
Walk the most A.Ethier J.Votto
K the most M.Kemp J.Votto
Highest OPS A.Ethier J.Votto


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. The lineups I used are listed below

Simulation Lineups
1 R.Furcal D.Stubbs
2 J.Pierre P.Janish
3 A.Ethier J.Votto
4 M.Kemp B.Phillips
5 C.Blake S.Rolen
6 J.Loney J.Gomes
7 R.Martin D.McDonald
8 O.Hudson C.Miller
9 C.Kershaw B.Arroyo

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.

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