I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Reds and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.
Today's Results... (Last updated at 9:05AM pdt, with correct lineups)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | Over/Under | Final Score |
| LAN | CIN | C.Kershaw vs B.Arroyo | LAN | 61.83% | 59.95% | 8.10 / 8.44 | TBD |
Simulator Fun Facts...
| Top Three Most Likely Scores | |
| 1 | CIN 4-3 |
| 2 | CIN 3-2 |
| 3 | LAN 3-2 |
|
Top 10 Most Likely Dodgers Victory Scores |
|
| 1 | 3-2 |
| 2 | 4-3 |
| 3 | 4-2 |
| 4 | 5-4 |
| 5 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 5-3 |
| 7 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 5-2 |
| Most common shutout score: | LAN 3-0 |
|
Pitching Stats |
||
| Pitcher | WHIP | FIP |
| C.Kershaw | 1.396 | 3.438 |
| B.Arroyo | 1.400 | 4.274 |
| Player Most Likely To | ||
| Category | Dodgers Player | Reds Player |
| Hit A HR | A.Ethier | J.Votto |
| Hit A 3B | J.Pierre | B.Phillips |
| Hit a 2B | A.Ethier | D.Stubbs |
| Score Runs | A.Ethier | D.Stubbs |
| Walk the most | A.Ethier | J.Votto |
| K the most | M.Kemp | J.Votto |
| Highest OPS | A.Ethier | J.Votto |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. The lineups I used are listed below
| Simulation Lineups | ||
| 1 | R.Furcal | D.Stubbs |
| 2 | J.Pierre | P.Janish |
| 3 | A.Ethier | J.Votto |
| 4 | M.Kemp | B.Phillips |
| 5 | C.Blake | S.Rolen |
| 6 | J.Loney | J.Gomes |
| 7 | R.Martin | D.McDonald |
| 8 | O.Hudson | C.Miller |
| 9 | C.Kershaw | B.Arroyo |
