FanPost

September 11th, Dodgers Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Giants and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 7:00AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Over/Under AccuScore
LAN SF H.Kuroda vs M.Cain SF 56.33% 44.74% 7.3 / 8.21 49%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... A rather large descrepancy between the Vegas line and my simulator for today's game. AccuScore makes an attempt to be the voice of reason, somewhat splitting the Vegas line and my simulators win probabilities (AccuScore is closer to the sim). The Giants may very well win this game, but I don't see how they can be 56.33% favorites. That just doesn't make sense to me. I can't view how much if at all the opening line has moved, so feel free to post on here what the current line is.

Top 10 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2
2 SF 4-3
3 SF 2-1
4 LAN 3-2
5 SF 5-4
6 LAN 4-3
7 LAN 4-2
8 LAN 2-1
9 LAN 3-1
10 LAN 5-3

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
H.Kuroda 1.192 2.97
M.Cain 1.36 3.716


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 R.Furcal E.Velez
2 M.Kemp F.Sanchez
3 A.Ethier P.Sandoval
4 M.Ramirez B.Molina
5 J.Loney R.Garko
6 R.Belliard N.Schierholtz
7 R.Martin A.Rowand
8 O.Hudson E.Renteria
9 H.Kuroda M.Cain

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.