I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Giants and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 7:00AM)
|Visitors||Home||Pitching Matchup||Favorite||Vegas Win Prob||Simulator Win Prob||Over/Under||AccuScore|
|LAN||SF||C.Billingsley vs B.Penny||LAN||53.70%
||8.0 / 8.43||52%|
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... My simulator likes the Dodgers chances, as they go for the sweep, a little more than both Vegas and AccuScore do. They are probably putting much more of an emphasis on Penny's last two starts than I am. Penny has pitched two consecutive very quality starts. My simulator puts a greater weight on most recent performance, but obviously not as much as the betting public does.
Top 10 Most Likely Scores
|10||LAN 4-1, LAN 5-2
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.