Dodgers Simulation, September 18th

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Giants and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 10:00PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
SF LAN J.Sanchez vs V.Padilla LAN 58.33% 58.11% 61%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Pretty good agreement on the win probability for the Dodgers across the board for tonight's game. A slight advantage to the Giants starting pitching wise which is made up for in the home field advantage, then more than made up for with the Dodgers hitting prowess (and or lack of hitting prowess from the NoCals).

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2
2 LAN 4-3
3 LAN 5-4
4 LAN 2-1
5 SF 4-3
6 LAN 4-2
7 SF 3-2
8 LAN 6-5
9 SF 4-2
10 LAN 5-3
11 SF 5-4
12 LAN 3-1
13 LAN 5-2
14 SF 2-1
15 SF 3-1
16 SF 5-3
17 LAN 6-4
18 LAN 4-1
19 SF 5-2
20 LAN 7-6

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
J.Sanchez 1.568 4.259
V.Padilla 1.280 3.706

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 E.Velez R.Furcal
2 F.Sanchez M.Kemp
3 P.Sandoval A.Ethier
4 B.Molina M.Ramirez
5 R.Garko C.Blake
6 N.Schierholtz J.Loney
7 A.Rowand R.Martin
8 E.Renteria O.Hudson
9 J.Sanchez V.Padilla

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.