I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 4:47PM, with correct lineups)
|Visitors||Home||Pitching Matchup||Favorite||Vegas Win Prob||Simulator Win Prob||Over/Under||Final Score|
|ARI||LAN||M.Scherzer vs C.Billingsley||LAN||62.69%||62.64%||8.1/ 7.27||TBD|
Skinny: Today's win probability is very similar to yesterdays. Both Vegas and the Simulator are in good agreement as to who will win tonight's game, but the simulator sees a much lower run environment than Vegas does. I guess Vegas oddsmakers aren't completely enamored with Max Schrezer and Chad BIllingsley.
Simulator Fun Facts...
Top 10 Most Likely Scores
|Most common shutout score:||LAN 1-0|
|Player Most Likely To|
|Hit A HR||M.Reynods||M.Ramirez|
|Hit A 3B||G.Parra||M.Kemp|
|Hit a 2B||B.Allen||M.Ramirez|
|Walk the most||S.Drew||A.Ethier|
|K the most||M.Reynolds||M.Kemp|
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. The lineups I used are listed below