September 2nd, Dodgers Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 4:47PM, with correct lineups)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Over/Under Final Score
ARI LAN M.Scherzer vs C.Billingsley LAN 62.69% 62.64% 8.1/ 7.27 TBD

Skinny: Today's win probability is very similar to yesterdays. Both Vegas and the Simulator are in good agreement as to who will win tonight's game, but the simulator sees a much lower run environment than Vegas does. I guess Vegas oddsmakers aren't completely enamored with Max Schrezer and Chad BIllingsley.

Simulator Fun Facts...

Top 10 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2
2 LAN 2-1
3 LAN 4-3
4 LAN 5-4
5 ARI 3-2
6 LAN 3-1
7 ARI 2-1
8 LAN 1-0
9 LAN 4-2
10 ARI 4-3

Most common shutout score: LAN 1-0

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
M.Scherzer 1.311 3.532
C.Billingsley 1.119 3.006

Player Most Likely To
Category Diamondbacks Player
Dodgers Player
Hit A HR M.Reynods M.Ramirez
Hit A 3B G.Parra M.Kemp
Hit a 2B B.Allen M.Ramirez
Score Runs S.Drew A.Ethier
Walk the most S.Drew A.Ethier
K the most M.Reynolds M.Kemp
Highest OPS M.Reynolds M.Ramirez

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. The lineups I used are listed below

Simulation Lineups
1 S.Drew R.Furcal
2 G.Parra A.Ethier
3 J.Upton M.Ramirez
4 M.Reynolds M.Kemp
5 M.Montero J.Loney
6 B.Allen R.Belliard
7 A.Romero R.Martin
8 A.Ojeda O.Hudson
9 M.Scherzer C.Billingsley

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.