FanPost

Dodgers Simulation, September 25th

I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Pirates using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 9:30PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
LAN PIT J.Garland vs J.Karstens LAN 63.64% 57.53% 66%
STL COL C.Carpenter vs A.Cook STL 58.85% 61.17% 60%
CHN SF C.Zambrano vs T.Lincecum SF 61.39% 61.96% 67%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... After taking two out of three from the lowly Nationals, the Dodgers move on to the NL's second worst team, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Vegas likely projects Karstens to be a little worse than I have him listed and is probably expecting the Dodgers offense to continue their hot streak. The Dodgers have a good opportunity to narrow their division clinching magic number. The Giants also have a decent opportunity to narrow the gap between them and the Rockies for the wild-card.

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 PIT 4-3
2 PIT 3-2
3 LAN 4-3
4 PIT 5-4
5 LAN 3-2
6 LAN 5-4
7 LAN 5-3
8 LAN 4-2
9 PIT 2-1
10 PIT 6-5
11 LAN 5-2
12 LAN 3-1
13 PIT 4-2
14 LAN 2-1
15 LAN 6-5
16 LAN 4-1
17 LAN 6-4
18 LAN 6-3
19 PIT 5-3
20 PIT 3-1

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher WHIP FIP
J.Garland 1.317 3.738
J.Karstens 1.446 4.309


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 R.Furcal A.McCutchen
2 M.Kemp D.Young
3 A.Ethier G.Jones
4 M.Ramirez L.Milledge
5 C.Blake B.Moss
6 J.Loney A.LaRoche
7 R.Belliard J.Jarmillo
8 R.Martin L.Cruz
9 J.Garland J.Karstens

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.