Dodgers Simulation, September 26th

I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Pirates using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 9:45PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
LAN PIT R.Wolf vs P.Maholm LAN 61.98% 58.38% 60%
STL COL A.Wainwright vs U.Jimenez COL 55.95% 50.94% 48%
CHN SF T.Gorzelanny vs B.Zito SF 55.75% 56.16% 55%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The Dodgers are sure trying their hardest to make the final two weeks of the season as exciting as possible. Vegas is giving the Dodgers an extra 3.5% win probability on friday's game. The Dodgers really could use a win, as the magic number to clinch the division is still 4, and sewing up home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs would help out. Vegas is scared to put out a line on the Rockies/Cardinals game due to Pujols tweaking his ankle a little bit. But look for Vegas to make that game a toss up when the lines do come out.

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 PIT 3-2
2 PIT 4-3
3 PIT 2-1
4 LAN 3-2
5 LAN 2-1
6 LAN 4-3
7 LAN 4-2
8 LAN 3-1
9 PIT 5-4
10 LAN 5-2
11 LAN 5-3
12 LAN 4-1
13 LAN 5-4
14 PIT 4-2
15 PIT 3-1
16 LAN 5-1
17 PIT 1-0
18 PIT 4-1
19 LAN 6-2
20 PIT 5-3

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher WHIP FIP
R.Wolf 1.191 3.226
P.Maholm 1.340 3.669

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 R.Furcal A.McCutchen
2 M.Kemp D.Young
3 A.Ethier G.Jones
4 M.Ramirez L.Milledge
5 C.Blake B.Moss
6 J.Loney A.LaRoche
7 R.Belliard J.Jarmillo
8 R.Martin L.Cruz
9 R.Wolf P.Maholm

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.

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