September 7th, Dodgers Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 10PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Over/Under Final Score
LAN ARI V.Padilla vs M.Scherzer
LAN 51.46% 39.84% 9.2 / 9.60 TBD

Skinny: Huge difference between Vegas line and the simulator for Monday's game in the desert. I have a feeling that the sim will be the outlier on this game, but that the vegas line and the "smart money" will move off of the Dodgers being favored to atleast a tossup game, if not the Diamondbacks as slight favorites. The biggest difference appears to be how Padilla is being projected. Vegas definitely thinks he is much better than the simulator does. We'll see...

Simulator Fun Facts...

Top 10 Most Likely Scores

1 ARI 4-3
2 ARI 3-2
3 ARI 5-4
4 ARI 6-5
5 LAN 4-3
6 ARI 2-1
7 ARI 5-3
8 LAN 5-4
9 LAN 3-2
10 ARI 4-2

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
V.Padilla 1.521 4.458
M.Scherzer 1.295 3.215

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 S.Drew R.Furcal
2 R.Roberts A.Ethier
3 J.Upton M.Ramirez
4 M.Reynolds M.Kemp
5 M.Montero C.Blake
6 C.Young J.Loney
7 G.Parra R.Martin
8 B.Allen O.Hudson
9 M.Scherzer V.Padilla

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.