September 8th, Dodgers Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 10PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Over/Under AccuScore
LAN ARI C.Billingsley vs B.Buckner
LAN 64.91% 57.67% 9.7 / 10.47 58%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Another fairly large difference between the Vegas line and my simulator. My guess is that it's a combination of two things. The first being the park factor in Arizona. The simulator appears to be punishing Dodgers pitchers from moving from a pitcher friendly park to a hitter friendly park more than Vegas is. Secondly, the simulator is probably rating the Diamondbacks offense a little better than Vegas is. The difference appears to be all on the side of the Diamondbacks offense / Dodgers pitching. Vegas was correct yesterday, we shall see who is right tonight. There's a reason they have all those shiny big casinos, right?

Top 10 Most Likely Scores

1 ARI 4-3
2 ARI 5-4
3 ARI 6-5
4 LAN 5-4
5 LAN 4-3
6 LAN 5-3
7 LAN 3-2
8 LAN 6-5
9 ARI 7-6
10 LAN 6-4, 4-2

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
C.Billingsley 1.433 3.682
B.Buckner 1.57 4.914

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 S.Drew R.Furcal
2 R.Roberts A.Ethier
3 J.Upton M.Ramirez
4 M.Reynolds M.Kemp
5 M.Montero C.Blake
6 C.Young J.Loney
7 G.Parra R.Martin
8 B.Allen O.Hudson
9 B.Buckner C.Billingsley

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.

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