With the news of Josh Johnson signing a four-year, $39 million extension with the Marlins today, my thoughts turn to the Dodgers' own arbitration-eligible starting pitcher, Chad Billingsley. However, rather than sign a multi-year agreement, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported yesterday that Billingsley and the Dodgers were close on a one-year deal.
What might that 2010 salary be? Here's a look at some comparable pitchers to Billingsley, along with their salaries for their first year of arbitration. Stats are through each player's third year
| Player | Year |
Svc Time |
IP | W-L | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | ERA+ | WAR | Salary |
| Chad Billingsley | 2010 | 3 yrs, 110 days |
634.0 | 47-30 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 8.2 | 3.55 | 119 | 10.2 | ??? |
| Felix Hernandez | 2009 | 3 yrs, 60 days | 666.1 | 39-36 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 8.0 | 3.80 | 114 | 14.3 | $3.8m |
| Ervin Santana | 2009 | 3 yrs, 104 days | 706.2 | 51-37 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 4.42 | 101 | 12.0 | $3.8m |
| Jon Lester | 2010 | 3 yrs, 75 days | 558.0 | 42-16 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 7.9 | 3.66 | 128 | 13.1 | $3.75m |
| Justin Verlander | 2009 | 3 yrs, 2 days | 600.0 | 46-34 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 7.2 | 4.11 | 110 | 10.7 | $3.675m |
| Paul Maholm | 2009 | 3 yrs, 37 days | 601.1 | 30-35 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 4.30 | 101 | 6.7 | $3.5m |
Santana, Lester, and Maholm all signed multi-year contracts, and Lester's was signed early, after just two years of service time. Judging from these comps, it is reasonable that Billingsley would get somewhere between $3.5 and $3.8 million on a one-year deal. It is worth noting that even though Billingsley is coming off a poor second half, which might lower his bargaining leverage, he can look to Justin Verlander, who got a one-year deal for $3.675 million last season coming off a year in which he went 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA (and 4.18 FIP).
I have revised the payroll worksheet (and right sidebar on the front page) with an updated estimate for Billingsley at $3.75 million for 2010.