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2010 Player Profile: Carlos Monasterios, Better Than D.J. Houlton?

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Carlos Monasterios is a strong candidate to make the Dodgers opening day roster (Photo Credit: Jon SooHoo / <a href="http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/la/photogallery/year_2010/month_03/day_22/cf8872804.html" target="new">LA Dodgers</a>)
Carlos Monasterios is a strong candidate to make the Dodgers opening day roster (Photo Credit: Jon SooHoo / LA Dodgers)

The Dodgers had so much success in picking up Ronald Belisario off the scrap heap -- well, for one year, anyway -- that they decided to take another recommendation by scout Ron Rizzi of another Venezuelan pitcher with a live arm.  They paid the Mets to draft Carlos Monasterios from the Phillies in December's Rule 5 draft.  As a Rule 5 draftee, Monasterios must be kept on the active roster (or disabled list) all season, or be offered back to his original team after being exposed to waivers.  Since 1981, the Dodgers have selected 11 players in the Rule 5 draft, and only three have made the opening day roster:

Rule 5 Draft Dodgers To Make Opening Day Roster
Player Year Age From   Comments
Frank Lankford 1998 27 Yankees   Pitched 12 games in relief before being returned to NY in May
Jose Antonio Nuñez 2001 22 Mets   Pitched 6 games; Terry Adams bitched; lost on waivers to SD in May
D.J. Houlton
2005 25 Astros   Only one to last all year; 19 starts, 76 ERA+

Monasterios, who turned 24 Sunday, has only pitched a total of 7.1 innings above A ball.  But the Dodgers like his arm, and here he is two weeks from opening day with an excellent chance at being on the major league roster.  In 12 spring innings, Monasterios has given up just three runs, all of which came Monday against the Angels (his estimated FIP is roughly 4.12, much higher than his 2.25 ERA).   Still, even though he gave up three runs yesterday, manager Joe Torre was still impressed. "His stuff was good, I thought it was quality, he was interesting," Torre said, "We got to see him for a period of four innings, and that was pretty impressive, I thought."

To me, that doesn't sound like someone about to be placed on waivers just yet.

Trivia

Was part of the trade that sent Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle from the Phillies to the Yankees in 2006.

Contract Status

Signed for 2010, likely for right around the major league minimum of $400,000.

2010 Outlook

Year Age IP BB/9 K/9 ERA FIP
2007 (A)
21 156.0 3.17 6.58 4.62 4.05
2008 (A+)
22 94.1 3.15 6.30 5.63 5.56
2009 (A+)
23 82.0 2.96 7.79 3.73 3.27
2009 (AA)
23 7.1 2.45 4.91 3.68 2.93
2010 Projections - Age 24 Season
CHONE 48.0 4.88 6.38 5.44 5.60
ZiPS 87.3 4.33 5.56 5.87 5.79
thanks to FanGraphs for the stats

 

Torre has stated that Monasterios could either start or relieve, and relief seems more likely a role for the season given how relatively few innings he has thrown the last two seasons.  I'll guess The Monk puts up a 4.60 ERA and 1.428 WHIP before being returned to the Phillies sometime in May.

What is your guess for Carlos Monasterios' 2010?  Give us a prediction of ERA, WHIP, innings pitched, and the date he is lost (either to waivers, or returned to Philadelphia) if at all.