Jonathan Broxton is one of the best relief pitchers in Dodger history. Yet, the big man with the soft voice seems under-appreciated. Part of that is due to a pair of NLCS Game 4 failures in each of the last two seasons. Another part is that Broxton has a set of unrealistic expectations thrust upon him, thanks to the great run of Dodger closers for the better part of the last decade. Take a look at the past eight years, and look at the shoes Broxton had to fill:
| Dodger Closers | |||||
| Year | Closer | K/9 | ERA | FIP | FIP rank* |
| 2002 | Eric Gagne | 12.46 | 1.97 | 1.80 | 2nd |
| 2003 | Eric Gagne | 14.98 | 1.20 | 0.86 | 1st |
| 2004 | Eric Gagne | 12.46 | 2.19 | 2.05 | 3rd |
| 2005 | Yhency Brazoban | 7.56 | 5.33 | 4.84 | 106th |
| 2006 | Takashi Saito | 12.29 | 2.07 | 1.87 | 3rd |
| 2007 | Takashi Saito | 10.91 | 1.40 | 2.57 | 7th |
| 2008 | Takashi Saito | 11.49 | 2.40 | 2.00 | 3rd |
| 2009 |
Jonathan Broxton | 13.50 | 2.61 | 1.97 | 2nd |
| *among MLB relievers, min. 50 IP (Saito had 47 IP in 2008) | |||||
In six of the seven seasons before Broxton took the closer role over full time, the Dodgers had one of the very best closers in baseball, with only a blip in 2005 (which of course we all know never happened). Broxton had big shoes to fill following Gagne and Saito, yet fill them he did. In his first full season as closer, Broxton was awesome, as he has been throughout his Dodger career.
Broxton is the all-time Dodger franchise leader in strikeouts per nine innings, at 11.92. I know ERA isn't the best way to measure relievers, but Broxton's 146 career ERA+ is fourth in franchise history among those with 200 or more innings. Broxton led MLB relievers last year in perfect outings, with 32.
Yet, what seems to be preventing Broxton from ascending in the minds of many is Matt Effing Stairs. In Game 4 of the 2008 NLCS, Broxton allowed a tie-breaking, two-run eighth inning home run to Stairs that hasn't landed yet. In 2009, again in Game 4, Broxton faced a slumping Stairs (four for his last 50) up by one in the ninth inning with one out, but pitched around him, walking him on four pitches, in a game eventually won on a Jimmy Rollins two-run double. Broxton figures to be again among the best relievers in baseball yet again in 2010, but he'll need postseason success to get his just due.
Broxton has had some extreme home/road splits over the last few seasons:
| Home | Road | |||||||||||
| Year | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | FIP | x-FIP | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | FIP | x-FIP |
| 2007 | 45.2 | 2.56 | 11.82 | 1.38 | 1.53 | 2.49 | 36.1 | 2.97 | 9.66 | 4.71 | 4.23 | 3.17 |
| 2008 | 39.1 | 2.97 | 11.21 | 2.75 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 29.2 | 4.25 | 11.83 | 3.64 | 3.00 | 3.23 |
| 2009 | 45.0 | 1.80 | 14.60 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 1.03 | 31.0 | 5.81 | 11.90 | 5.81 | 4.16 | 3.54 |
Fun fact about Broxton: On July 24, 2006, Broxton allowed a three-run homer to San Diego's Mike Cameron, breaking a 3-3 tie. Since that game, Broxton has appeared in 143 regular season games at Dodger Stadium, thrown 147.2 innings, facing a total of 564 batters during that span, and still has yet to give up a dinger at home since.
Contract Status
Broxton made a total of $1.975 million in 2009, including incentives. He signed a two-year deal in the offseason for a total of $11 million, which runs through his arbitration years. His $4 million salary in 2010 is more than he has made in his entire career combined to date, and he can earn up to $500,000 in incentives in both 2010 and 2011.
| Year | Age | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | FIP | x-FIP | tRA | ERA+ |
| 2006 | 22 | 76.1 | 3.9 | 11.4 | 2.59 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 3.27 | 173 |
| 2007 | 23 | 82.0 | 2.7 | 10.9 | 2.85 | 2.73 | 2.79 | 2.99 | 155 |
| 2008 | 24 | 69.0 | 3.5 | 11.5 | 3.13 | 2.26 | 2.93 | 2.72 | 133 |
| 2009 | 25 | 76.0 | 3.4 | 13.5 | 2.61 | 1.97 | 2.05 | 1.93 | 151 |
| 2010 Projections - Age 26 Season | |||||||||
| Bill James | 80.0 | 3.5 | 11.7 | 2.36 | 2.38 | ||||
| CHONE | 68.0 | 3.3 | 11.8 | 2.51 | 2.44 | ||||
| Marcel | 70.0 | 3.3 | 10.7 | 3.09 | 2.96 | ||||
| Baseball HQ | 73.0 | 3.2 | 12.1 | 2.84 | 2.60 | ||||
| ZiPS | 80.0 | 3.2 | 12.3 | 2.25 | 2.29 | ||||
2010 Outlook
Thanks to Fangraphs, we see that besides having the fastest average fastball (97.7 mph) in MLB, Broxton became much more of a ground ball pitcher in 2009, inducing grounders in 56.1% of his balls in play (up from 44.5% the season before). If he can continue that, trend, coupling ground ball tendencies with an insane strikeout rate, Broxton looks to be as good as anyone in baseball in 2010.
What is your guess for Jonathan Broxton's 2010? Give us a prediction of ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched.
I'm going with 2.61 / 1.046 / 76