FanPost

Home Opener, DBacks vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
ARI LAN I.Kennedy vs C.Kershaw LAN 62.55% 63.90%

Notes: The Simulator and Vegas opening lines are in good agreement as to the Dodgers chances of winning the home opener. The most likely final score is a Dodgers 3-2 victory. Make sure you get your game score guesses in before the first pitch is thrown out.

Top 100 Most Likely Scores
1 LAN 3-2 51 ARI 7-3
2 LAN 4-3 52 LAN 8-4
3 LAN 2-1 53 ARI 7-5
4 LAN 5-4 54 LAN 8-5
5 LAN 4-2 55 LAN 8-7
6 LAN 3-1 56 ARI 6-1
7 ARI 3-2 57 LAN 9-2
8 LAN 4-1 58 LAN 9-3
9 LAN 5-3 59 ARI 7-2
10 ARI 4-3 60 ARI 4-0
11 LAN 5-2 61 LAN 8-0
12 LAN 6-5 62 LAN 9-4
13 ARI 2-1 63 LAN 9-1
14 LAN 1-0 64 LAN 8-6
15 LAN 6-3 65 ARI 7-1
16 ARI 5-4 66 ARI 8-4
17 ARI 4-2 67 ARI 8-5
18 LAN 5-1 68 ARI 8-3
19 LAN 3-0 69 ARI 8-2
20 ARI 5-3 70 ARI 5-0
21 ARI 3-1 71 ARI 8-6
22 LAN 2-0 72 LAN 10-2
23 LAN 6-4 73 LAN 10-3
24 LAN 6-2 74 LAN 9-5
25 LAN 6-1 75 LAN 10-1
26 LAN 4-0 76 ARI 8-7
27 ARI 5-2 77 LAN 9-0
28 LAN 7-6 78 LAN 9-6
29 LAN 5-0 79 ARI 9-3
30 LAN 7-2 80 LAN 9-8
31 ARI 4-1 81 ARI 8-1
32 LAN 7-3 82 ARI 9-4
33 ARI 6-5 83 ARI 9-5
34 ARI 6-3 84 ARI 6-0
35 ARI 6-4 85 LAN 10-4
36 LAN 7-4 86 LAN 11-2
37 LAN 7-1 87 ARI 9-6
38 LAN 6-0 88 LAN 10-0
39 ARI 6-2 89 LAN 9-7
40 ARI 1-0 90 ARI 9-2
41 ARI 5-1 91 LAN 11-3
42 LAN 7-5 92 LAN 10-5
43 ARI 2-0 93 LAN 11-1
44 LAN 8-2 94 ARI 9-7
45 LAN 8-3 95 LAN 11-4
46 ARI 7-6 96 ARI 9-1
47 ARI 7-4 97 ARI 10-3
48 LAN 8-1 98 ARI 7-0
49 LAN 7-0 99 ARI 9-8
50 ARI 3-0 100 LAN 10-6

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.