FanPost

April 20th, Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Reds using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN CIN C.Billingsley vs H.Bailey LAN 55.95% 54.85%

Notes: The Dodgers find themselves as slight favorites as they open up the road trip in Cincy. Let's hope that the Chad Billingsley with good command of the strike zone shows up and can put up a quality start. Get your selections in for today's final score in this late afternoon game.

Top 100 Most Likely Scores

1 CIN 3-2 &nbsp 51 LAN 6-0
2 CIN 4-3 &nbsp 52 CIN 7-5
3 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 53 CIN 7-2
4 CIN 2-1 &nbsp 54 CIN 7-3
5 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 55 LAN 8-1
6 CIN 5-4 &nbsp 56 LAN 8-5
7 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 57 LAN 7-0
8 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 58 CIN 5-0
9 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 59 LAN 9-2
10 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 60 LAN 9-3
11 CIN 4-2 &nbsp 61 CIN 8-7
12 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 62 LAN 8-6
13 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 63 CIN 7-1
14 CIN 3-1 &nbsp 64 LAN 9-1
15 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 65 CIN 8-4
16 CIN 5-3 &nbsp 66 LAN 9-4
17 CIN 6-5 &nbsp 67 CIN 8-3
18 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 68 LAN 10-3
19 CIN 5-2 &nbsp 69 CIN 8-6
20 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 70 LAN 9-5
21 CIN 4-1 &nbsp 71 LAN 8-0
22 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 72 CIN 8-5
23 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 73 CIN 8-2
24 CIN 1-0 &nbsp 74 LAN 8-7
25 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 75 CIN 6-0
26 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 76 LAN 10-2
27 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 77 LAN 10-1
28 CIN 6-4 &nbsp 78 LAN 9-0
29 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 79 LAN 10-4
30 CIN 6-3 &nbsp 80 CIN 9-3
31 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 81 CIN 9-2
32 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 82 LAN 10-5
33 CIN 7-6 &nbsp 83 LAN 11-2
34 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 84 LAN 9-6
35 CIN 2-0 &nbsp 85 CIN 8-1
36 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 86 CIN 7-0
37 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 87 CIN 9-4
38 CIN 5-1 &nbsp 88 LAN 11-3
39 CIN 6-2 &nbsp 89 CIN 9-8
40 CIN 3-0 &nbsp 90 CIN 9-6
41 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 91 CIN 9-5
42 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 92 LAN 9-7
43 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 93 LAN 10-6
44 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 94 CIN 10-3
45 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 95 LAN 9-8
46 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 96 LAN 11-1
47 CIN 7-4 &nbsp 97 LAN 11-4
48 CIN 6-1 &nbsp 98 LAN 10-0
49 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 99 CIN 9-7
50 CIN 4-0 &nbsp 100 CIN 10-2

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.