I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Nationals using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 10:30 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | WAS | C.Haeger vs L.Atilano | LAN | 54.13% | 48.73% |
Notes: Kind of a difficult game to handicap as both starting pitchers could likely be all over the map as far as how well they are expected to do. Vegas likes (slightly) the Dodgers in the first game of the series, while the simulator gives the slightest of edge to the Nationals. Vegas has the Over/Under right around 10 runs. Get your guess in for the early evening game on the west coast.
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 WAS 4-3 | 51 LAN 8-5 | 101 WAS 11-3 | ||
| 2 WAS 3-2 | 52 WAS 7-1 | 102 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 3 WAS 5-4 | 53 LAN 4-0 | 103 WAS 10-1 | ||
| 4 LAN 4-3 | 54 LAN 8-2 | 104 WAS 10-9 | ||
| 5 LAN 3-2 | 55 WAS 8-3 | 105 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 6 LAN 5-4 | 56 LAN 7-1 | 106 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 7 WAS 6-5 | 57 WAS 8-4 | 107 WAS 9-0 | ||
| 8 WAS 2-1 | 58 LAN 8-6 | 108 WAS 11-2 | ||
| 9 LAN 4-2 | 59 WAS 8-2 | 109 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 10 LAN 5-3 | 60 WAS 5-0 | 110 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 11 WAS 4-2 | 61 WAS 8-5 | 111 WAS 10-7 | ||
| 12 WAS 5-3 | 62 WAS 8-6 | 112 WAS 11-4 | ||
| 13 LAN 2-1 | 63 LAN 8-7 | 113 LAN 9-0 | ||
| 14 WAS 3-1 | 64 LAN 5-0 | 114 WAS 11-5 | ||
| 15 WAS 5-2 | 65 LAN 9-4 | 115 WAS 11-1 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-2 | 66 LAN 9-3 | 116 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 17 LAN 6-5 | 67 WAS 8-1 | 117 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 18 LAN 3-1 | 68 LAN 6-0 | 118 WAS 10-8 | ||
| 19 WAS 4-1 | 69 LAN 9-5 | 119 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 20 LAN 6-4 | 70 WAS 6-0 | 120 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 21 LAN 6-3 | 71 WAS 9-3 | 121 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 22 WAS 6-4 | 72 LAN 9-2 | 122 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 23 WAS 7-6 | 73 LAN 8-1 | 123 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 24 WAS 6-3 | 74 WAS 9-8 | 124 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 25 LAN 4-1 | 75 WAS 9-4 | 125 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 26 WAS 6-2 | 76 WAS 9-2 | 126 WAS 11-6 | ||
| 27 LAN 6-2 | 77 LAN 9-6 | 127 WAS 12-4 | ||
| 28 WAS 5-1 | 78 LAN 9-7 | 128 WAS 10-0 | ||
| 29 LAN 7-4 | 79 WAS 7-0 | 129 WAS 12-2 | ||
| 30 LAN 5-1 | 80 WAS 9-6 | 130 WAS 12-5 | ||
| 31 LAN 7-3 | 81 LAN 10-4 | 131 WAS 12-3 | ||
| 32 LAN 7-5 | 82 WAS 9-5 | 132 WAS 12-6 | ||
| 33 LAN 7-6 | 83 WAS 9-7 | 133 WAS 11-10 | ||
| 34 WAS 7-3 | 84 LAN 7-0 | 134 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 35 WAS 7-4 | 85 LAN 9-1 | 135 WAS 11-7 | ||
| 36 LAN 7-2 | 86 LAN 10-2 | 136 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 37 WAS 7-2 | 87 WAS 9-1 | 137 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 38 WAS 7-5 | 88 LAN 10-3 | 138 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 39 LAN 6-1 | 89 WAS 10-4 | 139 WAS 13-2 | ||
| 40 WAS 8-7 | 90 LAN 10-5 | 140 LAN 11-9 | ||
| 41 WAS 6-1 | 91 LAN 9-8 | 141 LAN 12-7 | ||
| 42 WAS 1-0 | 92 WAS 10-2 | 142 WAS 12-1 | ||
| 43 WAS 3-0 | 93 WAS 10-3 | 143 WAS 13-3 | ||
| 44 LAN 8-3 | 94 WAS 8-0 | 144 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 45 LAN 2-0 | 95 LAN 8-0 | 145 LAN 12-8 | ||
| 46 LAN 8-4 | 96 LAN 10-6 | 146 WAS 11-8 | ||
| 47 LAN 3-0 | 97 WAS 10-6 | 147 WAS 11-0 | ||
| 48 WAS 4-0 | 98 LAN 10-1 | 148 WAS 13-4 | ||
| 49 WAS 2-0 | 99 WAS 10-5 | 149 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 50 LAN 1-0 | 100 LAN 10-7 | 150 LAN 13-5 |
